I’m pretty sure Dave doesn’t think LP would look to sell the company for a paltry $5 or even $10 billion. He realizes, and of course LP knows, NWBO is a company with a platform treatment designed to treat all solid tumor cancer indications. Upon a GBM indication approval, it should become evident that Northwest Bio can become a global force in the oncology space, and not simply just a one-hit wonder.
Approval in this GBM trial provides the runway to all other cancer indications, and LP will likely fight tooth and nail not to be bought out after top line. Therefore, I don’t think Dave Innes would think LP would be willing to sell the company at that point because she will want to play a central role in building up Northwest to becoming the powerful big pharma cancer fighting company she’s envisioned. I mean, after working so hard to get to top line, why would anyone think, including Dave Innes (who doesn’t think this), that she’d be willing to sell the company for so much less ($5 to 8 billion) than what a majority of solid longs think the company is ultimately worth.
NVCR is valued at around 8 billion right now. They’ve got a device that is uncomfortable that you can strap or glue on to your head or body part, and the data supporting its efficacy is extremely questionable. NWBO should easily be worth that number right away with good top line numbers, IMO.
KITE had one approval, for a small subgroup of patients, and is considered quite toxic with horrible side effects, and it was sold for $12 billion to Gilead. And I believe that so far, Gilead has said their 1st Q sales with Kite’s Yescarta amounted to about $96 million. At that rate, and if CAR-T can’t transition past rare blood cancers, it’ll take Gilead 125 years to make that 12 billion back.
One could almost call such a purchase a risky gamble compared to the how easily, upon a top line that proves the efficacy of the platform, L and Direct should be able to transition to work in all solid tumor cancer indications. So because of that, I can’t see how LP and the NWBO board would even fully consider an offer of less than $20 billion. Now $50 billion, I could maybe see. But I think we are a few years from an offer like that coming our way.
Additionally, Dave Innes didn’t make that move from Oppenheimer to NWBO to stay for a year or so. I think he has at least a 10 year timeline to work at NWBO in mind.
So I believe most longs should realize that while there may be offers that come, they are likely not to be entertained unless they represent the full value of the entire DCVax platform. And given where we are right now, in all fairness, I doubt any such offers will reflect those numbers.
