Reduce-it wasn't even close to a coin flip. Most longs saw the chance of success at over 90% for many reasons that were argued here ad nauseam. You made voluminous arguements to the contrary - you even said that the chance of Reduce-it failing was 98%.
So no, you did not lose a coin flip and there are no participation trophies.
Of course not, but if their track record in being correct was 0% (Giardino), then they absolutely should not be taken seriously.