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rafunrafun,Your analogies belie the bias inherent in your

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MedResCollab   Wednesday, 07/10/19 11:17:23 AM
Re: rafunrafun post# 200776
Post # of 339101 
rafunrafun,

Your analogies belie the bias inherent in your argument. They are not at all the same.

If an individual sees reason to believe an outcome has a certain chance of occurring that causes the risk:return of an investment in that outcome to be skewed to the negative (such as getting $0.40 but losing $0.60 for every call on a coin flip), and for that reason believes the best ROI to be a short sale on the investment (being the one holding the $0.60 end above), but ultimately is wrong about a particular outcome (one isolated coin flip), then were they "wrong" in taking the short sale position above? No, they were right, regardless of outcome.

And even if they were wrong on the risk:return--say they believed they would be on the $0.60 end but were really on the $0.40 end--it does not by that fact invalidate every call they ever make from that day forward.

We've pointed out to you before that Baker Bros, who has an enormous stake in AMRN, has made "wrong" calls 55% of the time. Since inception, they have lagged behind every healthcare ETF/index fund out there, which have all handily beat the S&P in the same time frame, while they barely have. Are they good? Are they bad? Is the timeframe/number of calls too small to confidently conclude one way or another? Should everything they ever say about a healthcare play be counted as wrong because they made many "wrong" calls before?

So you are quite mistaken. But fully entitled to continue in your faulty logic.

Regards,
-MRC


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