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flipper44

01/12/19 9:12 PM

#208177 RE: Dan88 #208174

Oh, here we go again. Voluntarily offering the company more time without a damn clue if NWBO is even scrubbing. Weird. I know, let's get to June and offer more time before they say anything. Or how about going until 2023, and just willy nilly offering more time. Why would you even assume they need it or should have it this time? Strange brew.

meirluc

01/12/19 10:32 PM

#208180 RE: Dan88 #208174

By the way what is the significance of this 46 months that has been mentioned a few times by some posters lately?



The 2017 JTM publication had an estimated 30% survival at 30 months, a 24.2% survival at 36 months and a 15% survival at 46.5 months. So if you started out with 100 patients, about 33 would still be alive at 30 months, 24 would survive at 36 months and only about 15 would be alive at 46.5 months. Between 36 and 46.5 months the loss is only 9 patients but it is still a loss of 37.5% from the original 24 alive at 36 months.

However, the same publication estimates that of the 24 patients alive at 36 months, 12 would still be alive at 88.2 months. If this is to be taken literally we would assume that during the 41.7 months interval between 46.5 and 88.2 months, only 3 of the remaining 15 patients (20%) will event.

The numbers of patients who by early 2017 survived 36, 46.5 months and especially 88.2 months was still relatively small and the estimates therefore may be quite different once the results for all 331 patients becomes known. This is especially true since survival rates for the last 108 patients will probably turn out to be much better than the were for the first 223 and the last 108 will most likely also show an improved survival rate between 30 and 46.5 months.

Nevertheless, this suggests that 46 months post surgery for the last patients is probably a very safe time for data lock since the attrition rate thereafter is going to be minimal. NWBO may decide to carry out the Data Lock earlier based on low attrition rates during the last several months. I am just guessing that the last reasonable time for data lock would be about 46 months post the last patient's surgery which coincide with June 2019.

I also expect that LP's presentation on 1/23 will surprise. In fact I will be surprised if she does not have a surprise for us.

PHYInvestor

01/12/19 11:08 PM

#208184 RE: Dan88 #208174

Dan88,

There is no PR about any deal with China. you are just speculating that the real estate deal with Huawei is leading to medical business in China.

So you may know more compared to us. Can you share the details?

biosectinvestor

01/13/19 4:40 PM

#208232 RE: Dan88 #208174

I agree with virtually all of your post, though I actually Am a fan of LP. I haven't met her. But I've been in enough microcaps, and early biotechs to know that she's pulled off a major coup here if she gets this to a successful completion, and that's what looks to me is likely to happen here.

As for people being xenophobic or sinophobic about their support of the Huawei sale leaseback, but not necessarily as a China partner, I am extremely familiar with China, am connected to businesses there that are some of the biggest in China, and I still prefer a different route. Huawei, given it's troubles, would be an unfortunate domestic partner in China, and doing business in China is not for tiny companies like this... loss of intellectual property is virtually a given. That's not xenophobia, that's a fact, and large companies know it and are very careful what they do and bring to China. That's not about xenophobia, as I said, go to Japan or Korea first, find a reliable partner that is well experienced and already manufactures these kinds of products and already has the capacity, not a phone / telecommunications company, and then work with regional partners eventually on China. China also simply does not have a well-developed drug development sector, and there is no reason for a tiny company with a potential blockbuster like this to subject itself to being an experiment, with political and intellectual property implications. That's about going after the best markets first, with the most reliable and technologically savvy partners first, and going after a less developed market, and avoiding troubled partners. It's not sinophobia or xenophobia. Every single day, all everything I do, and have done, for quite some time, involves international commercial business. My focus is on expediting success and eliminating risk, and not just a funky pop, success, but a success that bring the treatment to as many patients as possible, in as many markets as possible, with as successful a monetization as possible, without over charging.

Don't misjudge people who disagree with you on strategy. I also don't like people assuming things that are not true and posting them all over. It tends to undermine the confidence of investors and they often misattribute such posts to management. The fact of a sale-leaseback was not enough to suggest Huawai was buying NWBO prior to top line, nor would it have made sense. And as a local partner, I sitll think it would be a bad move, made purely on China hype, rather than the reality on the ground. It could bring attention initially, but slow progress and ultimately undermine the company's success, for the reasons I indicated here and above.

GoodGuyBill

01/14/19 3:58 PM

#208340 RE: Dan88 #208174

Dan, you are right. LP deserves credit for not diluting the company further and, perhaps, for getting the trial to the 36 month mark. However in my opinion she has rode the train of goodwill far too long.

Before, or directly after the ASM, Linda will have to release more info to continue getting the trust this long. I want to continue to provide support but, hell, she has to want it. This upcoming ASM will tell everyone where she stands.

I really feel that longs are given LP more benefit than she deserves by communicating, even before it's necessary, that she will be supported even if she lengthens the trial duration further. In my opinion, longs have let LP do whatever she wants...selling Cognate that we helped pay for but received nothing in return, diluting the company by giving herself and other management personnel tens of millions of shares despite abysmal financial performance, releasing ambiguous PR with info that could help the stock but, because of purposefully intentional ambiguous wording, ends up working against the stock as well as management's credibility.

I don't know what is going to happen at ASM. I, as always, try to keep hope alive. But we need some help from LP. If the ASM turns out to be the same as previous years, I am afraid we, longs, will loose the little equity we have left in the stock.

Just saying...