NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

By the way what is the significance of this 46 months that has been mentioned a few times by some posters lately?

The 2017 JTM publication had an estimated 30% survival at 30 months, a 24.2% survival at 36 months and a 15% survival at 46.5 months. So if you started out with 100 patients, about 33 would still be alive at 30 months, 24 would survive at 36 months and only about 15 would be alive at 46.5 months. Between 36 and 46.5 months the loss is only 9 patients but it is still a loss of 37.5% from the original 24 alive at 36 months.

However, the same publication estimates that of the 24 patients alive at 36 months, 12 would still be alive at 88.2 months. If this is to be taken literally we would assume that during the 41.7 months interval between 46.5 and 88.2 months, only 3 of the remaining 15 patients (20%) will event.

The numbers of patients who by early 2017 survived 36, 46.5 months and especially 88.2 months was still relatively small and the estimates therefore may be quite different once the results for all 331 patients becomes known. This is especially true since survival rates for the last 108 patients will probably turn out to be much better than the were for the first 223 and the last 108 will most likely also show an improved survival rate between 30 and 46.5 months.

Nevertheless, this suggests that 46 months post surgery for the last patients is probably a very safe time for data lock since the attrition rate thereafter is going to be minimal. NWBO may decide to carry out the Data Lock earlier based on low attrition rates during the last several months. I am just guessing that the last reasonable time for data lock would be about 46 months post the last patient's surgery which coincide with June 2019.

I also expect that LP's presentation on 1/23 will surprise. In fact I will be surprised if she does not have a surprise for us.