Replies to post #156111 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rfj1862]

I find any deal over $30 billion
to be way too high ($80 a share.) The only way around that would be
for a group of buyers to form a consortium where each would contribute
a prorata amount to own that share of AMRN

That's what's known as a copromote and they are not uncommon at all.

[everyonesguess]

Any examples in history? The "competition" may not favorite that.

[eboomer2611]

Not true. I'm not saying BP will buy this or that specific companies are definitely interested (but I do know many are actively "following" the amrn story). However, have a lot of my career advising the pharma sector - I can tell you most BPs are "hungry" and in dire need of the next big blockbuster. Most of them have severely cut their own internal R&D, the prior strategy of what I call spray and pray where they purchased lots of early stage companies cheaper and then figured if one was successful it was worth it (it wasn't), so now most BP startegy is to buy companies after the drug is super de-risked and they know they have a winner. AMRN fits exactly how BP is looking at it. And most of them have a ton of cash and stock and are not afraid of big purchase. That said, doesn't mean the price AMRN wants is the price BP is willing to pay. The good news is Baker Brothers is respected by both sides and I think will be a key player to make a deal happen if it does.

But BP are looking exactly for big purchases for block buster drugs - its exactly what most of them want and need.

[mexicola]

I find any deal over $30 billion
to be way too high ($80 a share.)/quote]

fair enough. i find any deal under $30B to be embarrassingly too low, considering what we know we have here. once we have further clarity/certainty here within the next 24-48 hours, we can easily back into an even better estimate of potential peak annual sales moving forward.

10,000,000 patients x $1500 = $15B yr (conservative numbers)

$15B yr x 3x-5x is crude, back of the napkin math for what we know prior to this weekend.

so for now, put me down for $40B-$75B as a starting point. it's not outside of the realm of possibility that the number could very well go up after this weekend.

as for BP... they don't innovate, they gobble like the turkeys they are and are dying for the next blockbuster. if they knew they could own an asset/franchise, which would be:

-safe (limited liability)
-cheap (cost effective)
-easy (to administer/take)
-effective (let's find out more this weekend)
-offered goodwill (safe, natural, purified EPA would be such an easy sell and eaten up by the yuppy duppy/whole foods crowd and others over 40, who prefer not to die early)
-locking out their competition
-LT potential for additional indications/treatments/rev streams (think inflammation)
-global market potential

then why wouldn't BP follow the Fed's model and print up some more funny money (shares) in order to capture a long term asset/franchise, which will kick off/generate $100's of billions in revenues over the next 10+ years? be a nice way to begin your tenure as the new CEO of PFE, no?

they won't drag their feet, risk losing out to a competitor's higher bid, wasting a single month of patent protection, and/or not helping as many patients who really need this drug to live a better/healthier/longer life right now.