Replies to post #152524 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Pyrrhonian]

AMRN’s patents are not as strong as you think. You’re completely discounting the threat generics pose as if it doesn’t exist, or is maybe, 1% likely to succeed. Meanwhile the Avexis acquisition makes total sense. They will have a complete lock on the market for 7 years in the US and 10 years in the EU just via orphan designation alone. And their pipeline is respectable. AMRN has no pipeline. We may see generic Vascepa come to market as soon as 2022. You can essentially buy Vascepa (highly pure EPA) on AMZN right now for $0.18 a pill, which will probably devastate much of the off-label potential, etc. And the margins for V are far worse. And, they got Avexis for $8B. Isn’t that what AMRN is trading at right now?....

And btw no one is paying 5x peak estimated sales. My god. Give me one example.. Meanwhile Pharmasset was acquired for LESS than 1x peak year sales estimates, and it almost didn’t happen. 3x maybe, it’s rare, and they’d have to have amazing patent protection, orphan status, etc.

Lastly there’s no hope for expanded indications with V, despite what some EPAites want you to believe. How many years would it even take anyway? 6? 7? And even if they got it it wouldn’t matter. Look into what a “skinny label” is. Generics will scoop it all.

AMRN is currently overpriced. And that’s probably retail’s fault. I think they’re going a little overboard out there. But that’s cool. Creates opportunity. Am I going to short here? Nope. Gonna see what happens Nov 12. Maybe I’ll get an even better opportunity. See if the irrational exuberance can reach a fever pitch ;)

[trevor68]

Can this gem of a response be placed up top for all shorters to see???

[Jt0082]

great post. totally agree with all you have said!

pyr is always detailed in his research but really has blinkers on. very unfortunate for him.

hype is totally justified.. but agree still not as much as some super optimistic posters on here. time will tell.

[hamkypamky]

I have worked with BP and they certainly would pay closer to 3-5 times peak sales for a blockbuster drug that has at least 10 years on patent and the ability to have other indications and some defenses like (ability to lock down supply).

No they would not, definitely not when we're talking tens of billions.

In the history of pharma M&As, there has not ever been a situation similar to Amarin, to pay 3-5X peak sales of the numbers thrown about on the board here, especially at such an early stage and at the valuation mentioned.

There have been more "expensive" deals, but all smaller (ie like $1B-$2B) in terms of absolute price, making it easier to swallow for a board, even if $1B is a massive sum of money.

There have been larger M&A deals, but these typically involve buying a company with a larger drug pipeline. Amarin does have a "pipeline" of sorts with expanded indications, but that's pretty far off and would take a couple of years to materialize.

So a purchase of Amarin for >$20B would be extremely atypical. The only similar situation would be PCYC being purchased, but even that was a smaller deal*.

Edit: Smaller in the sense that PCYC was only purchased at $21B, equivalent to an Amrn share price of $56, far smaller than numbers bandied about here.