Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

I have worked with BP and they certainly would pay closer to 3-5 times peak sales for a blockbuster drug that has at least 10 years on patent and the ability to have other indications and some defenses like (ability to lock down supply).

No they would not, definitely not when we're talking tens of billions.

In the history of pharma M&As, there has not ever been a situation similar to Amarin, to pay 3-5X peak sales of the numbers thrown about on the board here, especially at such an early stage and at the valuation mentioned.

There have been more "expensive" deals, but all smaller (ie like $1B-$2B) in terms of absolute price, making it easier to swallow for a board, even if $1B is a massive sum of money.

There have been larger M&A deals, but these typically involve buying a company with a larger drug pipeline. Amarin does have a "pipeline" of sorts with expanded indications, but that's pretty far off and would take a couple of years to materialize.

So a purchase of Amarin for >$20B would be extremely atypical. The only similar situation would be PCYC being purchased, but even that was a smaller deal*.

Edit: Smaller in the sense that PCYC was only purchased at $21B, equivalent to an Amrn share price of $56, far smaller than numbers bandied about here.