Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Pyrrhonian]

AMRN’s patents are not as strong as you think. You’re completely discounting the threat generics pose as if it doesn’t exist, or is maybe, 1% likely to succeed. Meanwhile the Avexis acquisition makes total sense. They will have a complete lock on the market for 7 years in the US and 10 years in the EU just via orphan designation alone. And their pipeline is respectable. AMRN has no pipeline. We may see generic Vascepa come to market as soon as 2022. You can essentially buy Vascepa (highly pure EPA) on AMZN right now for $0.18 a pill, which will probably devastate much of the off-label potential, etc. And the margins for V are far worse. And, they got Avexis for $8B. Isn’t that what AMRN is trading at right now?....

And btw no one is paying 5x peak estimated sales. My god. Give me one example.. Meanwhile Pharmasset was acquired for LESS than 1x peak year sales estimates, and it almost didn’t happen. 3x maybe, it’s rare, and they’d have to have amazing patent protection, orphan status, etc.

Lastly there’s no hope for expanded indications with V, despite what some EPAites want you to believe. How many years would it even take anyway? 6? 7? And even if they got it it wouldn’t matter. Look into what a “skinny label” is. Generics will scoop it all.

AMRN is currently overpriced. And that’s probably retail’s fault. I think they’re going a little overboard out there. But that’s cool. Creates opportunity. Am I going to short here? Nope. Gonna see what happens Nov 12. Maybe I’ll get an even better opportunity. See if the irrational exuberance can reach a fever pitch ;)