Replies to post #194301 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Lykiri, 56 met+, 121 met-, and 32 of the first 38 contingent dying before they reached 36 months on trial, comes to a total of 209 patients. Am I right to presume that since there were 108 survivors at 3/17, the remaining 223 were either dead or LTFU? If there were 9-11 LTFU, the remaining 212-214 patients were dead. If 209 patients died before they reached that 36 months timeline that only leaves 3-5 patients (212-209 or 214-209) who died after 36 months on trial. That seems like a very small number of fatalities occurring after 36 months.

I am not clear how the 9-11 LTFU are handled statistically and the answer to that that may (or may not) help to answer to my question.

[sentiment_stocks]

I've been bothered by the fact that my previous chart did not contain any patients from the original 38, primarily because there had to be at least one or two that lived past 36 months in order to have a KM derived curve of 88.6 for those patients who lived past 36 months.

So there has to be at least some of those 38 that lived past 36 months.

Here is the curve - redone - with your suggested corrections. Since you've measured the dimensions of those unmethylated groups and determined that we were missing several step downs, I've redone the curves with your suggestions.

I also had 208 step downs on the larger combined chart, but the 197th step down was missing, making it 207... which is what you are stating. I can't remember if it had been noted that I'd missed that step earlier and if that's why you determined it was 207, or if the figures simply supported that it was 207. Either way, it's now 207 due to that missing 197 step down.

So in summary...

331 total enrolled

MGMT+ = 131 patients
minus 44 censors - (3 LTFU ) / 41 alive before 36 months
= 87
minus 56 died
= 31 lived over 36 months

MGMT - = 162 patients
minus 33 censors - (5 LTFU) / 28 alive before 36 months
=129
minus 121 died
= 8 lived over 36 months

39 (or 38 you are thinking) lived over 36 months

Unknown - 38

minus
1 LTFU - patient #4
1 LTFU - patient #46

= 36 unknown

44 lived past 36 months
- 39 MGMT + and -
= 5 (or 6 you are thinking)

Those 5 or 6 look to be from the 38 unknowns. And again, some of those 38 unknown (dating as far back as 2008) really have to have lived past 36 months in order to reach at least 88.2 months. Because that dates back at least 7.35 years from March 2017. So at least one patient would have to have enrolled prior to January 2010.

So I'm assuming we are off by one patient in order to make that 26.4% work.

Suggestions?