Replies to post #26462 on Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[Moeclay]

Count on more cancellations...

https://www.engadget.com/2018/08/24/moviepass-annual-subscribers-three-movie-plan/

https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/24/17779164/moviepass-annual-members-prorated-refunds-terms-of-use-changes-restrictions

[Perfectshot23]

If they cancel directly with MP it will be a pro rated value of remaining months.

[Perfectshot23]

You think they could be ramping up cash to launch the family plan.

[PennyWorld]

Bob.. I think the monster mistake that mgmt made was thinking that they could keep the PPS up via hype and speculation long enough to dilute to pay their bills. They never imagined that the house of cards would fall so soon before they hit the 5M sub threshold. They took investors/traders as FOOLS with their MONEY. Things didn't work out that way. Massive negative cash flow is a formula for massive selloff. So it goes in penny world.

[chereb19]

Not all the 629MM was ATM. 250mm was unrestricted principal on notes being converted to equity. It's in their 10Q if you can be bothered to read it.
. 

So now we know. They milked the []= out of shareholders the 629+ million shares (about 1 billion by now) so they could build up cash to about $50 million, and then pay off all annual pass members. Obviously, most people won't be happy, so they will cancel. 

[StockItOut]

Bob, all annual subs are not going to cancel.
Your numbers you work out as numbers of subs is great work.
I’ve also stated before in reply to you, which you don’t reply back to, a heavy user would be less inclined to cancel their MP subscription because... they’re a heavy user... and MP offers a deal at just $10/month!

“Those who use 0-2 times a month will hit up Sinemia.” Bet most MoviePass members don’t even know about Sinemia. Plus, 0-2 timers are even less likely to cancel because they go very less to less frequently, so MP limitations not such an issue for them.

I think your poor experience you incorrectly use as a template to conclude the actions of the entire MP subscription base. I don’t get why you’d cancel your personal subscription, you’re so interested in MoviePass yet you severe your direct use and experience with it, for what $90 back from Costco on an already half used subscription?

You’ve also concluded a utilization rate of 2.5 per month, up from 1.7, yet after Ted stated they were down to 0.80 per month after the access cut backs. Yes, Ted is a bullshitter, and MP utilization rate will likely be higher with their greater movie access than previous near complete blockage, but your 2.5 UR is apparently based on a guess.

You then use your old numbers based on previous 2.5 utilization rate calculations... really Bob? How disengenuous. Get over your negative grumpiness coloring your perspective. Your old 2.5 UR was when MP offered 30 movies a month, not three, and when MP movie access limitations were seemingly not even conceived. So your $40 Million per month burn seems way off now, yet ignoring all the subscription changes you use it again to support your projection.

Some of those 1 million subs which converted, they were very likely annual renewals. I stated this before, but was ignored.

MoviePass is the trailblazer. It has become endeared in the pop culture. Pop culture is a powerful throughline in American psyche . Americans love a comback story. They may drop now, even though most will not, yet if MP gets its sheiet together, they’ll be back.