Bob, all annual subs are not going to cancel.
Your numbers you work out as numbers of subs is great work.
I’ve also stated before in reply to you, which you don’t reply back to, a heavy user would be less inclined to cancel their MP subscription because... they’re a heavy user... and MP offers a deal at just $10/month!
“Those who use 0-2 times a month will hit up Sinemia.” Bet most MoviePass members don’t even know about Sinemia. Plus, 0-2 timers are even less likely to cancel because they go very less to less frequently, so MP limitations not such an issue for them.
I think your poor experience you incorrectly use as a template to conclude the actions of the entire MP subscription base. I don’t get why you’d cancel your personal subscription, you’re so interested in MoviePass yet you severe your direct use and experience with it, for what $90 back from Costco on an already half used subscription?
You’ve also concluded a utilization rate of 2.5 per month, up from 1.7, yet after Ted stated they were down to 0.80 per month after the access cut backs. Yes, Ted is a bullshitter, and MP utilization rate will likely be higher with their greater movie access than previous near complete blockage, but your 2.5 UR is apparently based on a guess.
You then use your old numbers based on previous 2.5 utilization rate calculations... really Bob? How disengenuous. Get over your negative grumpiness coloring your perspective. Your old 2.5 UR was when MP offered 30 movies a month, not three, and when MP movie access limitations were seemingly not even conceived. So your $40 Million per month burn seems way off now, yet ignoring all the subscription changes you use it again to support your projection.
Some of those 1 million subs which converted, they were very likely annual renewals. I stated this before, but was ignored.
MoviePass is the trailblazer. It has become endeared in the pop culture. Pop culture is a powerful throughline in American psyche . Americans love a comback story. They may drop now, even though most will not, yet if MP gets its sheiet together, they’ll be back.
