Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[BobDoleYahoo]

It all makes sense now. If you guys recall my calculations before it where it showed $26 million in the bank as of August 9th, and then about $36 million on August 15th, or roughly $10 million SURPLUS per week. I couldn't understand why they were diluting the []= out of shareholders even when they weren't using that much money anymore, and I said they must have some hidden cost they're not telling us about. Well, if we add the number of days up since then, it's been about 9 days afterwards, which puts their cash in the bank at roughly just shy of $50 million ($14 milion for a week and a half-ish) as of August 24th.

That's significant because I went back to look at the dates they offered annual packages, and the subscriber counts they had at various points in time. I work out about 800K subs for Costco, about 600K subs for the $6.95 promo (they did it last November & again in March), and about 150K subs for the $7.95 promo.

I then took the number of months remaining. That basically works out to about $54 million they would owe if all annual subs cancelled. Now since some Costco members already cancelled, this number is probably a few million dollars less.

So now we know. They milked the []= out of shareholders the 629+ million shares (about 1 billion by now) so they could build up cash to about $50 million, and then pay off all annual pass members. Obviously, most people won't be happy, so they will cancel.

Assuming most cancel, that'll be close to 1.4 million annual subs that cancel (not including Costco subs that already cancelled). Right now they're down to probably 2.8/2.9 million subs with the abusive MovieBlocking they've been doing. That means they're down to about 1.4/1.5 million subs after the cancellation. the 1 million subs who converted enjoys being MovieBlocked so they will stay. That leaves about 400-500K that are month to month subs who'll probably just cancel.

To check my math, my numbers worked out to be about 1.45 million subs that are month to month (3 million - 800K-150K-600K). MoviePass claims about 1 million converted (how many were "forced" is unknown at this point) to the new plan. That leaves about 450 million month to month who'll probably just cancel.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: They'll be down to 1 million subs, who probably do 2-4 movies a month (subsidized on the 4th+ one), who will increase the usage ratio per person from 1.7 to about 2.5. Those who cancel and are heavy users will hit up AMC if they have AMC. Those who use 0-2 times a month will hit up Sinemia. This is bad for MoviePass because only the "semi heavy users" will stay with them.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: maybe 500K subs from various groups stay, meaning MovieBlock is left with 1.5 million subscribers.

If you recall from my scenario (screenshot below, click the link to see) before where the average usage is 2.5, even with only just 2 million subs, they are still losing 40 million per month BEFORE operating expenses. With operating expenses of about $7 per month, that's about $47 million. So, the point is with Sinemia stealing all the light users, MoviePass goes right back to losing money and robbing shareholders blind.

Even if they are only down to 1 to 1.5 million subscribers, that's still $23-35 million loss per month after operating expenses.

The point is: They messed around so much that they lost a lot of subs AND competition from Sinemia will take away the light users, exactly what they don't want. Prepare to lose more money guys. Bankruptcy in a few months. Yeah, I was wrong to compare this to $DCTH. This is worse. In fact, this is the WORST STOCK EVER. If you lived through the -50% average tankage for a week after already tanking -99.6%, OH. MY. GOD. I've never seen anything like that.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/CvetLqGvcVoZLWnCA