Replies to post #275620 on Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[namtae]

Good reason why you should always listen to me

Feel like a genius for having sold half my position upon the CRL bounce, but a dummy for holding beyond the BE formulation failure

Signed,

Super Genius

[elichen]

Mazeppa,

I hope you will send to Dianne what you just posted here. Please let us know. I would be happy to do it myself. Perhaps all should send it to her.
As to the ANDAs filed, even if an irresponsible strategy as to affordability, wouldn't they at least make the company more attractive to a partner/buyout (assuming the warning letter gets removed)?

[jtf3]

Thoughtful post!

[no2koolaid]

Maz,

Good to see you posting and I hope your house and property are making a speedy recovery. At least as speedy as the insurance company allows.

I read your post and I get it. However, my agitation has not descended to disbelief because I see a different end game. My training at work. Nonetheless, I do have a couple of points I would make in response to your post.

They have spent millions of dollars of the R&D for such ANDA's along with what appears to be a 3m application fee for each.

The cost for an ANDA is not the same as an NDA. Rather than $2.3 Million (not $3 Million), to file an ANDA costs $17k per filing. The difference is not a small and is not bleeding money away. Though one would point out that filing for FDA approvals is what drug companies do. No?

Yes, he cut a deal with SunGen, but we have yet to hear one development over all this time, and it's not even opioid-related. CNS and allergy drugs...what do we know about that?

Not opioid related is a good thing. Diversification is an acceptable strategy and, given the political landscape, a wise choice. Many a company has moved away from “what brung ‘em” to the dance. I bet most people do not know that Berkshire Hathaway used to be a textile business. (Please, stop before anyone starts…this is not a comparison with BRK. It is allegorical…look it up). But, the following is the result of an alliance that occurred before Elite and only now we see the results...

August 31, 2017: Athenex Pharmaceutical Division and SunGen Pharma Announce Terbutaline Sulfate Injection Product Launch.

Yes, SunGen...that “little garage pharma.”

As for the strategy of growing a small generics firm into a large one…no, Elite is not. A small generics firm has no chance to compete unless it has some uniquely beneficial drugs. ADF opioids are one form, but the application of their technology to other forms of drugs appears to be what engaged SunGen and that is another form.

Where I heartily agree is that this is no longer the same “play” as before. But, that was the problem…”Swinging for the fences” caused all too many to buy into the belief of quick riches. Another swing and a miss for emotional investing. Real investing takes time, attention, and a willingness to embrace risk that transcends the “stop loss” triggers or flipping for dimes and quarters. I am not denouncing trading, I am just saying that is not what I bought into and that demands a means of analysis and comparison to get to where I believe this is heading. I tire of ungrounded opinions. I am still waiting for something compelling to convince me I am wrong. Delays are not failure, they are delays and a fact of business life. What has really changed for Elite are the timelines. The issue is when. But, is that not always true?

[Don'tDrinkTheKoolAid]

20 REASONS why THIS WILL NEVER GO TO DOLLAR LAND!
What an AWESOME POST hit everything wrong with NAsRAT and UN-elite.
WHAT AN INCOMPETENT CEO.
NO CLUE WHAT TO DO! BURNING THROUGH CASH like there's no tomorrow!
HOPING BEYOND HOPE SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN
His lies about BEING GMP before the SOX CRL. INCONCEIVABLE!
LOVE IT! Very well stated!!!!!!!!

[WeeZuhl]

To My Friend Mazeppa

I see no "steps in the right direction." Now it's load up under .08, and play the OTC lotto? Lol. Feel like a genius for having sold half my position upon the CRL bounce, but a dummy for holding beyond the BE formulation failure. Now, it's just quicksand.

I implore you not to sell your shares, if for no other reason than I fear you would lose interest in our board and deprive us of your always anticipated insights. A true long with a suspicious eye is a highly-valued asset here. I do not disagree with any point of criticism, and I have expressed plenty of my own along the way. Management has made several critical miscalculations in both strategy and execution, and it has literally wiped out multiple years’ worth of stockholder benefits and burdened long-term holders with a significant cost of lost opportunity. The question is not whether mistakes were made or if the price performance has been pathetic. No doubt they were, and it has been. The question is not about whether we have faith in Nasrat as the best man for the job. Although he clearly has his limitations, it is unmistakable that his own wealth is directly dependent on the success of the company. (And I’ve been around enough hospitals by now to know that complex organizations often continue to move forward despite the head-shaking decision-making of the administration.) Ultimately, I believe none of the sins of the Hakim regime are a permanent drag on the company. Enraging yes, permanent no. We may be stuck in the mud, but I don’t think it is quicksand.


There are two important questions for longs to ask. First, do you believe in the tangible assets of the company as a basis for your investment, despite the decline in market value? And second, are you able to adjust your investment timeline to allow for the (eventual) unlocking of the inherent value contained within the intangible assets? The GMP factory and its operational processes are real, and the current list of approved ANDA’s and actual shipping products form the basis of a solid foundation. No matter how much blame you place on Nasrat for the reverse in share price since SequestOx, at a minimum, under his stewardship the important tangible assets of the company have been properly maintained, updated, and enhanced. With your stock, you’re buying a commiserate share of that upgraded factory, which at this point is already able to pay the bills while operating at minimum capacity. Now, do you have the time to wait for the intangible assets to come on-line? The era of the 10-month FDA review cycle is upon us, and that deserves strong consideration. Percocet and Norco generics. SequestOx. Generic OxyContin. The SunGen eight. The entire lineup of antagonist ADF’s. Add in a few surprises along the way.


As time goes by, the intangibles will become real, and with each step there will be spring-like jumps in share price. Are you able to wait for these developments? We must recognize the value of our intangible assets, including my friend Mazeppa.

[62bluejay]

Mazz

This is the most truthful, 100% accurate post I have ever read on this message board and I agree with you completely....BUT!!!!!!

I agree with Wezz and if you held your shares this long buddy you might as well just ride it out now....

Just my opinion!!!!
Good luck to everybody long and May we have a great 2018 with Elite

[no2koolaid]

Maz, I just wanted to jump in a moment and remind you what you said about another company (remember them?) and how it was similar in many ways to Elite and how you got out just in time to only have a small loss...and your timing being what it was, it enabled you to lose out on a few million dollars that was just around the corner if you only knew. Once burned, twice learned...but you gotta do what you gotta do and I wish you well. However, as I tell my MBA students, when making a decision the context is always different and the alternatives are not equal in weight.