Hi N2K,
I stand corrected per cost of the ANDA's--though swear remember reading it on the last financials. No matter.
Really, the underlying point of my argument, aside from the change in company course, is that it was not built upon a well-thought-out, planned course of action given failure in the Sox department; it was borne out of reaction to the CRL. An ANDA per quarter? What kind of "strategy" is that given the firm's financial position? Sure, choose one or two, but as an ongoing practice? And doing so with a letter of warning holding up the process--and no, it has not been addressed (though assume it will be at some point). Of course, while the application fee may have been wrong, the R&D costs were substantially burdensome to the point it required dilution. And such dilution is ongoing.
This tact by Nasrat has not been adapted to suit financial constraints; nor address the problem of the warning holding things back. He needs to stop the bleeding and wait. As far as I can see, he can stay at home, watch a few soaps and wait around until he hears back on the warning letter. Does less harm then him in the office blowing more money on ANDA's that will take a good while to market and see return.
The play has changed substantially. It's no longer a play on the ADF market that was the reason for my investment. Now, it's just lining up generics for assessment. SunGen may have "made deals" in the past, but so far nothing. And there is no way to infer the market potential on the basis of broad drug classes mentioned in the one PR. Thus, what this has become is an investment that does not offer the high return we were looking at with SOx, but dependent on a lot of future results..starting with a warning letter. It's a matter of opportunity cost. The market is smoking right now, and frankly, this isn't going anywhere for a good long time. Really, I need to talk myself out of this investment and put my less than 50% less to work somewhere else without the crazy OTC games and current inherent risk.
Right now, this company has no "earnings." The compelling reason of the ADF market has gone, and so it is a warning resolution followed by ANDA assessment drama and more dilution in the works--for at least the next year or two. It was a good shot at real money, but now a diluted quagmire that I need to talk myself into exiting on hopefully some kind of warning bounce, lol. Time to move on to green pastures instead of a drip by drip red day by day. I know...someday. I'm not waiting.
Good luck to you. I may be around a bit before I exit, but objectively, there are much better speculative plays around for this area of my speculative portfolio to use for staging a comeback. This, IMO, is dead money for a long time. JMHO...obviously you disagree, and it's your money to invest as is mine to take off the table. I'm worn out by this daily decline and see no justification for the current market cap whatsoever or ways in which this will make any meaningful move up in the near future.
Maz
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