Thank you very much for the kind post, WeeZuhl! I am very complimented at the nice words, and indeed find your post valuable as food-for-thought.
Honestly, I'm surprised I even read this board on a weekend, as have become disengaged...but perhaps less so with the recent weakness, beyond its usual weakness, lol. You make some very good points, and to me, one of the more frustrating things has been the lost opportunity cost this investment money could have made even just sitting in a fund. The market has been smoking. That said, most of my money that's invested is in funds/ETF's, or simply in cash. I really have little trust in this market right now as a whole. This is my "speculative" play.
But, therein lies the problem...this has turned from a "play" on Sequestox into a long-term investment in a generic company. Actually, and quite appros given your Dali Lama quote, has been almost a Zen-mindset I have taken towards this stock: I have written it off as a total loss in my mind. As much as possible, anyway. Sure, like most, at a loss here, and while set aside, does not tickle to be down. To me, it seems too little to sell, but can buy twice the fun if it falls to .04...so really, at what point does it gain any traction as a real investment?
I fully agree--that in spite of my criticisms of Nasrat, the company has a good deal of potential. But it's a question of when such potential becomes realized, and what opportunities I miss while hanging on? Yes, I believe the warning letter is temporary and will be cleared up. When--no idea--IMO, shouldn't have occurred in the first place. But given it did, and Nasrat did not mention, he evidently treated like a non-material event, to which extent, he can be elusive on any updates. So we hold...then hold again while the ANDA's go through the approval process, then if approved, the marketing to shelf to revenue process...and all of that takes a good deal of time. One can say "be patient" but after holding nearly four years, and being down over 50%, my patience is wearing thin.
Yes, there are wild cards. An approval in another country. Big deal or move with SunGen comes through. Some forward movement on Sequestox. The warning resolved and a fast ANDA sliding into play. Yes--all could happen and is what keeps me from selling to pursue less risky/less reward standard plays at this level..I guess the idea of "speculative." But with dilution, it's also easy to get suckered into thinking of the sp as "cheap." No different from the old adage/question "which weighs more--a ton of feathers or a ton of bricks?" Nasrat has funded the ANDA's in a way that turned shareholder's bricks into feathers...it's the market cap one has to look at for real valuation, and assess if this is worth it. On one hand, even great news resulting in a 50% upswing is far better than one would hope for in say a blue-chip investment, but on the downside, that would simply put us back at .12...yet, a 50% move would be easier to realize here than say on a BP like PFE announcing some good results.
I'll admit, I'm unsure of which way I lean right now. Nasrat has mismanaged, IMO, and may continue to do so, as opposed to effectively turning this company around. But, no guarantee anything else I may buy in place of ELTP that will not go down as well. We are not going bk, so "going to zero" does not seem likely--but so does "DollarLand" given the ongoing dilution to fund ANDA's that then sit in a queue. Honestly, I will be very pissed if not sell outright if this CC shows Nasrat has engaged in significant dilution at this level of sp to keep the ANDA machine cranking with no resolution of the warning in hand.
Well, that's about the sum of energy I have this weekend. Surprised I even checked the board, but glad I saw your post and able to respond. I thank you for the friendship and respect your views...certainly some things to think about--I'm not in a rush...but am frustrated by red every morning, and no forward movement by management. The next CC will be interesting--or worse if it's just more platitudes and no advancement. IMO, it's time Nasrat produces results, not just pictures of a rosy future. I guess my own move right now is to just hang on--if it goes to a nickel, so be it, or a dime, better than .08.
Once again, I appreciate the kind words and thoughts...and equally, the very thoughtful reply. And, always, a friend, albeit in ELTP, an expensive one! My best to you--
Maz
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