No, not the same at all N2K. The two companies were entirely different, and so were the circumstances. They are not at all comparable. Different companies in different industries, different stories, and very different reasons for getting in and out (the first had to do with a wife who wanted us to get out...her decision, but I had to go along...and now, it's become a sorry story she tells her MBA students, lol). What's going on here and the difference between the two companies are not at all comparable! The generalization you bring up is in no way comparable and is not at all rationale for holding ELTP.
Here--when SOx was in-play, it may have been a risky OTC play--but seemed far less so especially with attaining a Priority Review and no negative (or any) info provided on the T-max. The stock seemed, by all DD, to appear like an overlooked gem, and was significantly less diluted at the time. As you know well, an approval back then would have had provided "proof of concept" for many other ADF opioids and the return would have been extremely large...or even bought out by now for a very large return. It was a risk worth taking for the reward given the indications from plenty of DD.
Unfortunately, the present reality has changed substantially since the CRL, and in no way is this the same play. I made more (made = break even) the portion of stock I sold on the CRL bounce then the stock has ever risen to again since. Only held the rest given the belief the re-formulation would work, was again wrong, but I'm ok having taken the shot. I don't feel the need to enumerate the numerous changes again since the days of the SOx play...something everyone knows the story of here, regardless of opinion. But my personal opinion leads me to believe this is not the company/opportunity with same risk-return profile it had when I initially invested. Yes, it has potential...but that's years away. IMO, it's sad that the current ELTP "play" is a resolution of a warning letter, not even their ANDA's.
Even with the ANDA's, all Nasrat has done is note the size of the markets, and a lot of "what if's" per percentage of said markets they can gain if approved. No marketing plan was given, no way to assess valuation to the ANDA's as we don't know the earnings any such sales will generate, no idea about the drugs/markets as alleged in the SunGen "partnership" and the Pura deal has produced zero. There is nothing I can tell that would act as a metric for potential earnings assessment...in fact, nothing that can be examined with DD as we don't have a clue about the profitability of the deal with SunGen if it ever does materialize. This is truly investing in the dark.
IMO we're likely close to a bottom (but not a prediction, just opinion) and I don't mind being parked here for the time being until I find a speculative play with a risk-reward profile more appealing to me for taking another high risk/high reward shot using the money I had allocated for speculative plays in my portfolio. Unlike when SOx was in play, I see no catalysts on the horizon that will bring this anywhere near where it would have been if the SOx play panned out. I don't fall in love with stocks, and the reason behind my investment here is gone. Others, including yourself, may view things much differently, as is your right to do, and I wish you the best of luck!
Maz
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
