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Replies to post #1343 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
10/14/17 10:48 AM
As of the close of Fri. Oct. 13, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 130642 and 130462. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 129292 and 129602. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come December in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 136240 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 136240 to 127820. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 130460 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 5 days since the low made on Fri. Oct. 6, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 131710. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 136240, which was up 38 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 3.39% percent. Interestingly, the NY Gold Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in December 2016.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Critically, my broader investigation analysis recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Eyeballing the immediate momentum is Bearish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of October 2nd's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 10/9 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136240, which was created during the week of September 4th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 126940 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 123650 on a closing basis.
