NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | October 7, 2017
Analysis for the Week of October 9, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Oct. 6, 2017: Clearly, this market remains in a bearish position. Breaking this session's low will lead to a further decline. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 127922 and 127492. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 126282 and 127062. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come December in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 136240 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 136240 to 127820. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 127490 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 126280 following the high established Wed. Oct. 4, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 127100
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 136240, which was up 38 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 1.72% percent. Interestingly, the NY Gold Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in December 2016.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Critically, my broader investigation expectation recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Bearing in mind the immediate trend remains bearish since September made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 10/2 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136240, which was created during the week of September 4th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 126940 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 123650 on a closing basis.
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