Replies to post #8317 on Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[dharmamatt]

Follow up question

DennyCrane,

Thanks as always for your informative posts.

Just to follow up: can you quickly walk us through the value here?

They had $305mm exposure, $175mm reserved. They paid $150mm, so does that mean they are at $150mm in residual exposure?

So, roughly $2+ per share. Let's assume they get $0.50 on the dollar, we are talking $1 per share wiped out (worst case)

This is in the context of ABV of about $5 say, so they are trading 50% of worst case ABV, right? (not sure how much reliance, toll roads, etc are in ABV, so I will say ABV captures best case there to be conservative)

I don't think the NOLs are in ABV until they turn a profit, so that would of course be a whole different source of upside.

Where is am I off base? Thanks

[brandemarcus]

So let's say 80 of the 120 million was now recognized and paid out Puerto Rico losses. How much more headline risk can there be on maybe 50 million more dollars? Snowball did you notice operating expense was down 20 million?