Follow up question
DennyCrane,
Thanks as always for your informative posts.
Just to follow up: can you quickly walk us through the value here?
They had $305mm exposure, $175mm reserved. They paid $150mm, so does that mean they are at $150mm in residual exposure?
So, roughly $2+ per share. Let's assume they get $0.50 on the dollar, we are talking $1 per share wiped out (worst case)
This is in the context of ABV of about $5 say, so they are trading 50% of worst case ABV, right? (not sure how much reliance, toll roads, etc are in ABV, so I will say ABV captures best case there to be conservative)
I don't think the NOLs are in ABV until they turn a profit, so that would of course be a whole different source of upside.
Where is am I off base? Thanks
