Replies to post #8321 on Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[DennyCrane550]

"They had $305mm exposure, $175mm reserved. They paid $150mm, so does that mean they are at $150mm in residual exposure? "
Roughly, see below

"So, roughly $2+ per share. Let's assume they get $0.50 on the dollar, we are talking $1 per share wiped out (worst case) "

I am mobile so hard to do this message board, as u have upload pics, pain. Phone corrupted the pdf or something a bit.


SUBSEQUENT event, paid AFTER Jun 30th
Shows Net, mgmt was asked and said something about Gross


Appears reserve is higher 193m than i recall



338m exposure, just go look at slides, opp supp, filings,etc


All the money Syncora has paid out 100c on the dollar, say its idk 180m, how much will Syncora continue to pay $40m in 2018, i believe... call it 200m, how much does syncora recover maybe 60-120 or more ... pencil in 100m ($1/share recovery good guy) , sure sounds like doomsday ha not.

A liquidity bump in the road that syncora is managing even with the circus that is Puerto Rico

"This is in the context of ABV of about $5 say, so they are trading 50% of worst case ABV, right? (not sure how much reliance, toll roads, etc are in ABV, so I will say ABV captures best case there to be conservative)"

Toll roads marked at $170m, could be worth $240-600m+?

Reliance rail has no reserve, beyond general reserve, and sits on Red Flag list.

Sep 2018, Sep 2019 are callable, Legal remedy, and financing to refinance underway

Yes ABV is very conservative, doesnt include many things, thus should be higher.

Any good catalyst should foster a Step Function move to a higher trading level as each event is crystalized

And Syncora trades at a 50% discount as it plays defense, trades on OTC, illiquid, doesnt write new business, patience required for legal catalysts/workouts, nor has mgmt come out of its shell.

Anticipate this to continue to improve.


"I don't think the NOLs are in ABV until they turn a profit, so that would of course be a whole different source of upside" Correct, $2.9Billion of NOLs are marked as Zero

[DennyCrane550]

Recall that Board of Directors have an incentive plan to buy back the Surplus notes and get the Stock over $4.50 by Q1 2019.

Clock is ticking... Snowballess never provides evidence for his views rather attempts to spread fear.

We will see 2.5+ by halloweenie and more if Toll Roads deal or MacQuarie deal come thru by then.

MacQuarie Settlement discussions due to court 10/17/2017
What does that signal in a given timeline, we shall see