Syncora is fine,
folks can believe whatever headlines you want (no doubt Puerto Rico Complex is trading very low, MatlinPatterson is dumping all their PR distress bonds - as their largest investor redeemed)... i just read Bishop transcript an hour ago - positive sentiment underneath
anyhow if i recall
as of June 30th
$305m exposure (PREPA + GOs)
$175m reserve
paid Gross 150m July 1 (120m net)
Runnin' off, Q is recoveries
Right now, market assumes Syncora which is paying out as if total loss/wipeout anyways... gets Zero/Back in recoveries... when in reality there have been multiple offers for PREPA (ranging from 100c for insured (sycrf) to Syncora okay with 85-90c) -- so even assuming Syncora gets back anything would be good. Maybe less now because of Hurricane damage to PREPA transmission lines, but still
Look at the Puerto Rico exposure page in the Operating Supplement, read the filings,... if you are day trading, i have no idea for you if it goes down 10cents on 100 shares or up on more real volume, just know Syncora's books are clean,
esp if Relaince Rail's front end is finally partial refi'd
Positives remain in play
Selling Toll Roads, 4 possible settlements, possible Reinsurance transaction/deal w/ AGO/Ambac/MBIA, $3billy of NOLs, etc
