Replies to post #122890 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[biotechrocks]

Well stated NWDR and hope you're right on your calculations but more importantly on the relief the drug would provide to Epilepsy patients and their families......not to mention AD down the line! Rumors alone of any buyout from BIIB or someone similar would send the share price sky high! You may be right, the good Dr. probably isn't considering anything right now if the potential is triple digits and possibly higher!!

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Talk dirty to me with those math calculations.

as a dose of reality, you probably need to adjust those numbers for a split with a partner or contractor to manufacture and distribute the products, say at least 50%

the analysts have been consistent in saying that effective alz treatment is worth $20 billion to a BP, is epilepsy really worth more than alz? That $20 billion is before a split with a partner

So $10 billion alz, $5 billion epilepsy...

[nidan7500]

NWDR...nice work. Consider the time line dynamics a little, I think you are being very cautious. Think breakthrough, avalanche change where the rate of change increases at an increasing rate

It is true that it could take 5 years before A2-73 becomes the go to med for the treatment of Epilepsy.

I am not qualified to predict the rate of adoption/change in medicine (see glacial) but I do see systems dynamics OK. A systems dynamic model which includes risk, value, technology, criticality and regulatory controls quickly shows the leverage points here. We are looking at WW critical need with very low risk if A2-73 trials prove to be safe and effective at establishing CNS homeostasis. IMO, the largest constraint here will be availability. People (parents/patients/care givers/MD's, all) will within a year be driving change and not according to a regulatory bodies rate b/c risk is very low and benefits are huge. If it works.

An example of when/how such change has happened before is Moore's Law...Vacuum tubes to microprocessors based on technology. IMO, Dr.M. is a lot like Charlie Moore.



An analogy

"Moore's Law"-Fairchild semiconductor. I came along a little after he predicted the growth rate/performance/integration of semiconductor devices/what eventually came to be known as micro processors. He predicted that device performance(*)would double every 2 years based on component density, which would vary as a function of feature size. In order to achieve this new science on photosensitive polymers and defect prevention(clean rooms) had to be understood/engineered/implemented and proven. Intel cut 2 yrs down to 1.5 years. The point of all this is, 5 years is a very long time in today's environment. When this kind of breakthrough is on the table all bets are off. Industry went from discrete devices(transistors/resistors/other)to lower power consumption, smaller, faster , better in less than a few years, and it is still happening 50 years later.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

[tredenwater2]

Thank you NWDR for bringing the newbies up to speed and on the true possible valuations. And yes, this is after further validation in Rett and PK but we will be in a much different landscape pps wise. Many longs know this and know what hey own but again thanks for your post.

Tred

[falconer66a]

Eventual Anavex Market Capitalization Will Be Many Billions

I only calculated a potential revenue, MC and PPS for Epilepsy. What if AD, PD, etc... is added in? Can you say off the scale?

It won’t be, “What if AD, PD, etc.” ...are included in future Anavex valuations. No “ifs” about it. The hard biology of the matter points strongly to this: If Anavex 2-73 shows efficacy against epilepsy, even to but a moderate degree, it almost surely will give similar or better results for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases.

To estimate future valuations, those doing their own due diligence need to determine several numbers. I’ve done these, but won’t re-post them. The numbers are too big, and regarded by some as stock price pumping. Do your calculations, then.

First, figure out how many people in the Western world (where Anavex might have corporate activity) have or will have epilepsy, Rett syndrome, Parkinson’s disease, and Alzheimer’s.

Then, determine treatment (drug sales) revenues that will come from each patient each year.

Determine how many shares Anavex Life Sciences Corp is likely to have (presently, 42.1 million outstanding shares).

Then, what fraction of annual corporate revenues will flow to the bottom line, distributed as dividends?

Lastly, to estimate a share price, determine the price to earnings ratio. With those numbers, calculate future share prices and annual per share dividends.

I’ve done all of this. Won’t post my arithmetic again. Do your own number crunching. Use a spreadsheet, or be careful in working things on a calculator. Lots and lots of zeros.

[This author advises that his postings should not be used to prompt any AVXL buy or sell decision. Anavex Life Sciences Corp is presently a small, no-revenues, no-product start up pharmaceutical. It may have a great future, as its science is unique and effective. But, of course, never put at risk any non-discretionary funds.]