Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[nidan7500]

NWDR...nice work. Consider the time line dynamics a little, I think you are being very cautious. Think breakthrough, avalanche change where the rate of change increases at an increasing rate

It is true that it could take 5 years before A2-73 becomes the go to med for the treatment of Epilepsy.

I am not qualified to predict the rate of adoption/change in medicine (see glacial) but I do see systems dynamics OK. A systems dynamic model which includes risk, value, technology, criticality and regulatory controls quickly shows the leverage points here. We are looking at WW critical need with very low risk if A2-73 trials prove to be safe and effective at establishing CNS homeostasis. IMO, the largest constraint here will be availability. People (parents/patients/care givers/MD's, all) will within a year be driving change and not according to a regulatory bodies rate b/c risk is very low and benefits are huge. If it works.

An example of when/how such change has happened before is Moore's Law...Vacuum tubes to microprocessors based on technology. IMO, Dr.M. is a lot like Charlie Moore.



An analogy

"Moore's Law"-Fairchild semiconductor. I came along a little after he predicted the growth rate/performance/integration of semiconductor devices/what eventually came to be known as micro processors. He predicted that device performance(*)would double every 2 years based on component density, which would vary as a function of feature size. In order to achieve this new science on photosensitive polymers and defect prevention(clean rooms) had to be understood/engineered/implemented and proven. Intel cut 2 yrs down to 1.5 years. The point of all this is, 5 years is a very long time in today's environment. When this kind of breakthrough is on the table all bets are off. Industry went from discrete devices(transistors/resistors/other)to lower power consumption, smaller, faster , better in less than a few years, and it is still happening 50 years later.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law