$2-3B will be way to low if the Rett trial is successful.
If the Rett trial demonstrates statistically significant reduction in seizure severity and rate then Anavex will start to become valued on the potential revenue for treating Epilepsy and other diseases where seizures are a common symptom.
Just for Epilepsy;
2.2M patients in US
2.6M patients in EU
1.0M patients in Japan
assume treatment of 25% of these patients; 1.45M treated
assume probably low cost of $6000 per year;
Total revenue from Epilepsy; $8.7B
It is true that it could take 5 years before A2-73 becomes the go to med for the treatment of Epilepsy. But the potential revenue will start to drive the market cap of Anavex up by many multiples.
If you look at existing, well known companies; (values vary daily)
GILD, rev ~$30B, MC ~185B, MC / rev ~ 6.2
BIIB, rev ~11.5B, MC ~67B, MC / rev ~ 5.8
So a market cap / revenue ratio of ~6 is reasonable.
If Anavex is looking at $10B in revenue 5-10 years from now and assuming the multiplier of 6 then a market cap of $60B is reasonable.
Assume 100M shares outstanding; $60B / 100M = $600 PPS.
I believe these numbers are primarily why we have seen no partnership announcements from Anavex. Our CEO and the team can do these calculations. They know much more than we do regarding all the low level details of each patient in the AD trial. They surely know what they have. I have no idea if BIIB is trying to low ball a partnership or buyout offer. But Missling has been able to raise enough cash through LP and grants to get to the point where Anavex can finish the Rett trial without a partnership. Missling knows what a successful Rett trial will mean for Anavex; I think dado stated it best; "... a successful Rett Syndrome trial will be transformational for Anavex...
These calculations are fun to do and dream about. But as a parent I can't imagine holding your child and the helpless feeling as seizures wrack their body. Praying A2-73 is truly transformational in the lives of many disease sufferers worldwide.
GO AVXL
ps. And one other note, I only calculated a potential revenue, MC and PPS for Epilepsy. What if AD, PD, etc... is added in? Can you say off the scale?
pps. Do due diligence. Manage your risk
