Replies to post #16386 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[pearsby09]

Excellent well balanced post FRED! Even though we are heading into a very tenuous Binary and pivotal juncture for the future of this company and PRO 140, it is refreshing to get a post that reminds us of the benefit/risk positions many of us face going forward.

[TheBioTechG]

This pretty much sums up my feelings on the company.

However, on the topic of the convertible bonds, I still don't see why Tony would pony up $1M of his own money without having a ton of confidence in PRO-140. It may present an alternative to himself if the company does go belly up, but why take that risk?

[gestalt2]

I agree 100%. I must say that if it was mgmt's goal to put themselves in the position to grab pro 140 for them selves after a company failure is just crazy. If they wanted to do that they would have a long list of actions they could do that they are not doing.

Also the issue of a large and or frequent dilutive raises, how the hell would you think there wouldn't be? We invested in a tiny biotech with no profit and one product that is depending on the FDA for approval. It's the same as any silicon valley startup - a lottery ticket. To think there is some way to make this happen without dilution is just crazy. If you think the dilution is more than the multiple then don't invest. I have read many posts on what this will sell for and the estimates keep creeping lower mostly because we are getting fatigue over the wait. There is no change in the market value for pro 140, the multiples are the same. if it takes $20-50 million more to get to an FDA approved drug that is approximatly $.20-.50/share - a lot in today's stock price but nothing in a multi billion market share where the SP would be in the $10-20/share with FDA approval.

Time is money but results will win!

[tonysd57]

Hello Fred:

FYI, I believe the total exercisable option/warrant figure can be found on page 54 of the recent 10-k. Stands at 74,000,000+ with weighted average of .86cts- Along with the 153,000,000 outstanding shares we sit at 227 million fully diluted.

As for notion that investors will lose a "ton" of money should the combo results not be good, that depends on your personal price per share. Mine is .66cts. and I'm not sweating the outcome. Even though you prefer to label CYDY as a classic binary event stock, the developmental bio-tech landscape is chalked full of examples of heady buy-outs even on less than spectacular trial results.

Big Pharma purchases on "promise & potential" and PRO-140 oozes both. As mentioned in previous post, Allergen recently paid an obscene amount for Tobira Theraputics after it's PH II trial flop. But I don't see that happening here. The history of the underlying science is too strong as demonstrated in previous CYDY & Tai-Med trials.

Even if all goes badly, I believe the science/product will be bought at minimum of .72cts - That wipes out most of the options/warrants and someone can scoop up the remains for less than $140 million. That's a steal and in the hands of BP with their money & might, they'll push it through FDA approval or possibly shelve it for future development - So go ahead and take a dive - I think it's 80/20 or 4-1 we see successful trial results- and if not, their isn't a mountain of risk at .70cts-