Everyone should realize that CYDY is a classic binary event stock and I am pretty sure most do. If the results are good, the company survives, if not, it doesn't. Backing up the case for "the results will be good" is past good results, patients remaining on the drug past the end of the study and insider buying. On the side of the results will be bad and the company will go under is that the patient population being treated was much sicker than in previous studies, that there was some sketchiness to how the phase II results were reported and the fact that insiders used a privileged means of purchasing their most recent positions (convertible bonds) which gives them access to the company's assets if CYDY goes belly.
Now, my assumption is there is a better chance the results will be good than bad. The drug clearly has worked well for many patients in the past and that should be sufficient for it to find a place in the HIV market.
But even if that is so, there is another factor for CYDY investors to consider and that is the level of dilution awaiting us. If the stock pops on good results, the warrant conversions could bring the company needed money but also a ton of dilution to shareholders. There are so many warrants outstanding I can't keep track of when some expire. If there are not any early conversions because the expiration date on the warrants remains distant, then the company may have to further dilute via a stock offering as they need the money right away.
Another hope shareholders might have is the company just sells to a larger pharma company once the drug is validated by the combo results. Or they partner with a big pharma company in order to get some cash and then pursue other indications. My sense is there is definitely a possibility of something like these things happening as the new management team does not seem to have the attitude of being anything other than a caretaker until such an event comes to pass - but that is just an impression that is not based in any factual evidence. But if the combo results are not good, then all of the above is not happening. Again, it is about as binary a stock as you can find and shareholders should be prepared to lose a ton of money of for some reason the results are not good. If they are good, then the stock should have a big initial pop and the only question then is do they have to do an offering that would take the top off that pop or would warrant conversions provide the needed money.
