What I am really interested in about the warrants is when they expire as if some are expiring soon and the data is good as we expect it to be, the company will be able to raise the needed cash via the warrant conversions and would not need to additionally dilute shareholders. Does anyone have any info about when the warrants expire?
As for the downside, I have to think it would be significant as you will have a company without any cash and without a clear future. It would be hard for the company to raise additional capital under those circumstances.
Also, we all think in terms of either great results or lousy results. But another possibility is just OK results. If the results are just OK but not great, I am not sure how the stock would react.
I would put the odds of getting great results at 70%, OK results at 20% and lousy results at 10%. But those are nothing more than semi-informed guesses.