jai, re: Saga of IDCC
Next we have 3G revenue. We need to generate 1.5% royalties from NOKIA, SAM, ERIC. If this is accomplished we get to $100 if not we don't. ... If NOKIA succeeds to beat IDCC into submission and gets they to accept a 3G rate that is under 1% then IDCC will become an also ran and become irrelevant.
I WISH IDCC would get 1.5% on 3G. I don't see it happening. Management indicated their expected rate for 3G was somewhat below the 1%-3% they wanted for 2G. However, even if IDCC's rate is only 0.25% this will be a very good long term investment, especially at these levels. The 3G market is going to be huge and if IDCC can successfully license 90% or more of the market the profits will be in dollars per shares, not cents. The growth of the 3G market will = growth in IDCC revenues, which should transfer into a nice PE ratio (20 or more). So if IDCC announces tomorrow that they settled the arbitration with Nokia on 2G by granting a fully paid up license for $1 AND they signed a 3G contract at 0.75%, I'd be buying (big time), not selling. The long term value is in 3G.
I'm not saying it's okay for IDCC to roll over to Nokia - I believe they need to go to the mat and show they are not a pushover. However, if they are getting pushed over into a nice pile of 3G $'s, then I can live with it.
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