The SAGA of IDCC.
Many of the longs here beleive this stock to be a future triple digit play including myself. So we are about 85.5 points away give or take a few cents. Not speaking for mschere or Alley both of whom I enjoy reading I can only give my assesment of this investment.
A 5.5 billion dollar market cap would equate to about $100 a share. The current market cap is about $800 million.
The only way to get there from here would be to achieve phenomenal revenue growth.
$20 million a quarter won't cut it so what would we need?
First, NOK/SAM 2G. This revenue would add about $30 million a quarter. Now we are at $50 million and a $50 stock.
Next we have 3G revenue. We need to generate 1.5% royalties from NOKIA, SAM, ERIC. If this is accomplished we get to $100 if not we don't.
This stock is not for the weak stomached. If you beleive that IDCC will prevail not only in arbitration with NOKIA but they will have the backbone to collect the money at the rate which they charge NEC and SHARP then you can see how $100 is not a pipe dream.
If NOKIA succeeds to beat IDCC into submission and gets they to accept a 3G rate that is under 1% then IDCC will become an also ran and become irrelevant.
This is the BET in my opinion. If IDCC wants to be a big boy they must hold steady on 3G rates and force companies to pay a rate that they beleive is fair. Otherwise they will never hit the "homerun" and we will all be posting about woulda, coulda's and shoulda's.
