Replies to post #40608 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[jai]

My post refers to what we would need to achieve a triple digit stock price. Many people have high expectations. The results would coincide with whatever rate is set. My point is that we would need 1.5% for 3G to get to triple digits. Getting less would mean less of a stock price.

We will see how strong their IPR and how much intestinal fortitude (no spell check) IDCC has, by what rate 3G is set. I still beleive that the arbitration is about getting IDCC to set a lower 3G rate and not so much about 2G dollars.

So the battle begins. The next year will be very interesting. In order to make serious money here you must have very long term views. So if IDCC caves they still may get to $50 a share which I feel is the worst case scenario. If they fight we may see $100.

[0nceinalifetime]

The IDCC mantra has been all about 3G, how 3G is IDCC's expertise. Now we hear management say this:

"Management indicated their expected rate for 3G was somewhat below the 1%-3% they wanted for 2G. "

If IDCC IS 3G, then why would they get a substantially lower rate than what they expected for 2G? O.K. so management only expects to get less than 1% royalties for 3G? And they have precious few 3G licenses signed up (remember the indemnifier). Recent Nokia action will not help accelerate licensing either.

Plus, a royalty on most devices is far from given. My guess is they will be shut out of much of the 3G market and have to settle on small royalties from a manufacturer or two who use IDCC's protocol stack or some other minor contribution. But protocol stacks have a relatively short life, IDCC will need to aggressively market their wares to maintain break-even profitability.

I'm sorry if I paint a bleak scenario but I'm not going to conform to the norm around here and paint a rosy picture when so many important clues point in the other direction.

Once