Replies to post #16579 on CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[rimshot]

SPX daily closes chart, showing
key horizontal price levels I color-coded
on this chart in spring to fall 2015,
with no upper H lines added
since 2015 ...

you can see the upper resistance "ledges"
remain in play for this chart:

* be sure to compare the 2016 price highs to the 2015 price highs
for XLF, XLK, XLE, XLV and XLY - it will help predict the future
outcome for the S&P 500 price action

[rimshot]

S&P 500 Advance-Decline line now resides at a chart location requiring high vigilance for its future direction -

* see the top chart element for the S&P500 A-D line, which has been pointing down for only the most recent days in mid-June 2016

* take future note whether the prior all-time high achieved in April 2016 by the S&P500 A-D line remains downside violated

[rimshot]

all these chart elements work together to either
confirm the SPY price direction, or NOT confirm

watch and learn, or ignore the wisdom of these
chart elements presented as a package together ...
you decide

[rimshot]

SPY $216.25 = the make or break level for the bullish case

a hold above 216.25 is required for upside staying power, otherwise
consider today's bounce a near-term event that will likely be faded
(horizontal analysis)

time will tell
* the SPY 50dsma and 50dema are nearby

the Advance-Decline line for SPX shown below updates once daily, after each day's close -

* will the pattern continue in 2016 that declines actually reverse to the upside after testing the 39-day ema and the 50-day sma for the SPX's A-D line?

[rimshot]

SPY holding above $214.18 is now required for any intraday upside to have staying power

* context: "bear kiss" of the 50-day sma is now in play for two consecutive daily closes, as of the 9/13/2016 close ... this is one of the more reliable price pattern setups, so consider its implications for the near-term and for the long-term until the pattern is negated by actually closing back above the 50-day sma

also of interest:

* we are trying to hold a decline below the SPY 65-day sma for more than one day

six indices/ETF's vs. their 65-day sma:



NOTE: be sure you are using dividend-adjusted price history for charting SPY as provided by Stockcharts.com, unlike nearly all broker provided charting platforms which do not downward adjust the price charts for the impact of SPY quarterly dividends

[rimshot]

AAPL 111.27 to 112.01 = the make or break price level for any long-term upside staying power for the AAPL price action

day high and multi-month high achieved today is 111.57

yes, AAPL will impact the SPY and DIA price trend

[rimshot]

the SPY near-term bullish chance for any bounce to actually have staying power depends on holding above the daily 50,2 lower Bollinger Band ...
an actual price hold below the lower BB shown earlier in the "reply to" post #16579 is a negative chart event

forget the possible importance of now testing the prior intraday price lows, if looking for a probable bottom ... watch the daily 50,2 lower Bollinger Band and watch the SPY 65-day sma

[rimshot]

kissing some of the 200-day sma's

chart 1 -



chart 2 -

% change since 12/31/2014, for $SPX and for SPY;
SPY includes the quarterly dividend payments while $SPX does not include them

* SPY has declined 4.6% as of November 4, 2016 using the intraday price high achieved in August 2016 vs. the November 4th intraday low



chart 3 -

SPX and RUT weekly within the 70,2 BB channel:

* SPX $2048 = the 38.2% retracement level of the major advancing sequence

* bearish confirmation occurs only when a weekly price close that is more than 3% below the SPX or SPY 70-week sma

[rimshot]

$NYA July price low is now being tested from above,
as of November 4, 2016 ... no sizable downside violation
yet of the July intraday price low for NYA:

* on this NYA daily chart, the solid brown Horizontal lines
I have drawn represent the most consequential price levels for
potential long-term chart damage related to the prior
major horizontal support or resistance levels

* bear kiss of the 100-day sma was in play during the second half
of October 2016, and price has since steadily declined

chart 1 -



chart 2 -

* see the NYA daily closes vs. prior daily close lows and highs,
for evaluating the improving technical health or further damage depending on what price action actually accomplishes in the future vs. the prior price closes

* bear kiss of the 200-day ema which is shown as the dashed red moving average was in play during late October 2016, and price
has since steadily declined



chart 3 - $NYA monthly

* note the NYA and SPX remain near their 15,2 Bollinger Band midlines, so nothing yet to write home about as significant long-term technical damage as of November 4, 2016

[rimshot]

SPY above $211.60 chart interpretation level is
a required must hold-above level for today,
in order to have lasting upside staying power into
the daily close

* Note - this is based on chart settings which are adaptive with future price action, so the value will be different as the days progress

RSP, the Equally Weighted version of SPY, needs to hold above the $80.98 level, which is also based on a chart setting which adapts with the price action
(RSP - 81.38 to 81.12 is the trading range, 13 minutes after today's open)

* the SPXEW daily chart below shows the November 4, 2016 low
did not fully test its 200-day simple moving average:

* note it is very important to the future bullish case that the
price hold above its rising 600-day simple moving average shown as the dashed black moving average

chart 1 -



chart 2 - the SPXEW daily closes chart provides data clarity important to both day and swing traders

* the indicators shown on this chart are useful, when
paired with price action vs. the horizontals I have selected

[rimshot]

SPX 120-min chart with the important
RSP:SPY ratio within its BB channel
and its recent low marked with a red
horizontal value (its June low is near this
ratio low)

chart 1 - 120-min SPX



chart 2 - daily RSP:SPY ratio

* Arthur Hill, CMT and other well-known professional
technicians teach how to use this ratio for
choosing exit/entry timing for SPX related trades.

and clearly the conditions in which RSP price action
is actually leading the SPY price action
is most favorable for the lasting upside price action for SPY , and horizontal price action support is
more reliable when the RSP:SPY ratio is positively divergent
chart location wise vs. the SPY price action

[rimshot]

SPY 213.51 to 213.68 = the next higher must-hold above price levels for the continued bullish case at any future higher price levels that may take place vs. the Monday November 7, 2016 bounce high of SPY 213.19 in the 6.5- hour day session
( 213.40/.50's was often printed in Monday's extended session 4 hours following the day session close

*this is my personal chart interpretation of the several adaptive
chart settings I am using on the 60-min and daily and weekly charts

Note - the chart settings I am using for these price values are adaptive and will change as the hours/days progress

Important to consider: the lower weekly 20,2 Bollinger Band vs. price action by $NYA, RUT, $SPX, $SPXEW $OEX, $NDX, $COMPQ, $MID, $SML, $WLSH, $VLE

NYA weekly chart, with selected other indices:

* Note the confluence for the current NYA price location by -
1. the 50-week sma
2. the 20,2 lower Bollinger Band
3. a newly printed long-term potential 6 times bottom price level region printed again on Friday November 4, 2016 close vs. the prior
weekly close low when looking left on this chart

[rimshot]

SPY chart interpretation, for lasting & stable price trend action to be reliable for actually holding above/below key SPY technical chart events for many days in the future, depends on what the RSP charts actually
accomplish TA-wise shortly following the timing in which the SPY charts print technical events

the RSP daily is now currently "bear-kissing" its 100-day sma ... this is customary in my many years of observation that RSP technical events on the upside lag by up to several hours/or several days for achieving the identical SPY technical chart events

** SPY is already far above its 100-day sma which was today surpassed for the first time in approx. 2 weeks **

RSP daily chart, the 100-day sma is shown as the solid pink MA:

[rimshot]

SPX daily chart showing the bear-kiss of the 50-day sma on
Tuesday November 8, 2016 and

showing the intermediate-term SPX breadth momentum indicator
and the volume momentum indicator, which are both steadily declining in recent weeks/months

* Important - notice at the bottom of the chart that the S&P500 Advance-Decline line is trying to steadily remain below its two
TA-based moving averages that are declining until November 7th and 8th ...

these moving averages represent the 5% and 10% trends for the A-D line, as explained at the McClellan Financial Publications website are the chosen moving averages for these internal metrics

[rimshot]

/ES emini futures $2081 to 2105 = fair value, where over a long time period much volume has been transacted
(SPY $208.11 = the 16-hour day + extended sessions multi-month decline low on Friday November 4, 2016 ... one seller at 57k SPY volume size lowered his Ask side order price at least 5 times to get his fills from the Bid side late Friday p.m.)

* bears need to hold the December /ES price action permanently below the /ES $2081 level, or the bulls are going to run the bears over with upside price action eventually

two of the Volume Nodes with lowest volume in several 100 points of price range include $2021 and $2121, meaning a push back up eventually to $2121 will either reverse there or immediately advance above $2121 just like we have seen price action now continue to hold below /ES $2121 since declining below the level

... if approached from above in the future hours/days then ditto for the $2021 /ES level which resides below today's November 9th Globex low so far, as of 7:15 a.m. Eastern

read up on High and on Low Volume Nodes using the longer time frame for calculating the Volume Profile chart .. I have some info. posted in prior years at one of the boards I moderate here at IHub

Link to a post I made in 2012 explaining how to interpret the approach of a Low and a High Volume node by actual price action -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=76220543

** Important for bias going forward - the SPX daily closes chart shows the SPX 200-day sma has not seen a daily close below the moving average since June 2016:

[rimshot]

** Watch whether the SPX new 52-wk highs # expands or declines over the coming weeks,
because the two moving averages I show on the daily
chart below have been declining since their July 2016 Moving Average peak

* only recently on November 7 and 8th the # of new 52-week price highs is trying to narrow the distance between the two moving averages ... if the bulls steadily take control of the future price action these two moving averages for this S&P500 internal 100% need to reverse to the upside direction on a lasting basis

* Note: the direction for the # of new 52-week highs and lows metric eventually coordinate the timing of actual trending or reversal chart events with the price action residing above OR below the S&P500 and S&P1500 price's 100-day sma shown as the green moving averages on the chart below:

[rimshot]

SPX daily chart showing bulls need to achieve a lasting price advance above the several Moving Averages which are located in a relatively tight price range shown on the chart below ...
once a hold above these moving averages is actually achieved for multiple days going forward the bear scorch will likely accelerate: 1.) the speed and 2.) potentially the advancing distance by which the future price action moves to the upside

* if you think about: the 2008 to the end of 2014 - and the trending brutal SPX price advance, which was "the most hated rally of all time", then it is possible we will relive that again in the coming months as some folks are stuck and remain in disbelief mode ... if you want to make money, trade the price action because it is what it is. Nothing else matters. TA is all that matters. Predict only what is justified by sound and proven TA.

[rimshot]

SPX daily chart settings update to this overall chart thread, which was started at this board in March 2016:

Note: some of the comments below are a repeat for this daily SPX chart, though the chart has a new horizontal price line added for the November 10, 2016 SPX intraday price high

chart 1 - the SPX daily chart is showing that bulls need to achieve a lasting price advance above the several Moving Averages which are located in a relatively tight price range shown on the chart below ...
once a hold above these moving averages is actually achieved for multiple days going forward the bear scorch will likely accelerate:

1.) the speed and
2.) the advancing distance by which the future price
action moves to the upside

* if you think about: the 2008 to the end of 2014 - and the trending brutal SPX price advance, which was "the most hated rally of all time", then it is possible we will relive that again in the coming months as some folks are stuck and remain in disbelief mode ... if you want to make money, trade the price action because it is what it is. Nothing else matters. TA is all that matters. Predict only what is justified by sound and proven TA.

chart 1 -



chart 2 - what is most important here is the recent printing of new all-time highs for the cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines shown for specific S&P500 industry sectors ... bulls want this A-D line upside action to continue OR at least a near-term price pullback for the S&P500 will be nearby



chart 3 - daily chart showing the S&P500 cumulative Advance-Decline line, and accompanying internals for the index

* too much important information in this one chart to review in a single post, so train yourself how to interpret each chart element ... I consider this one of the most actionable charts in all of my folders ... the combo of information in this single chart is powerful and reliable when considered together as the chart elements develop over time

Link for Extra level subscribers only -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p33286308736&a=422175840

[rimshot]

$NYA daily chart which shows a larger technical context in
which the condition exists since September 2016 that:

the $INDU:$SPX ratio has sharply advanced off its September low, meaning the Dow Jones Industrial index is outperforming the S&P500 index



chart 2 - $INDU daily with Carl Swenlin's "short-term" oscillators

Note - "The Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) is an overbought/oversold indicator that can assist in identifying short-term tops and bottoms. There are two versions, one using advances and declines, and one using advancing and declining volume."

[rimshot]

SPX daily with the McClellan internals for the S&P500 index:

* bears need to hold price below SPX $2180 horizontal OR higher highs are coming

chart 1 - daily SPX



https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/dpgallery.html

chart 2 - 3 year daily history

* Advance-Decline breadth line leads the direction of lasting price action

[rimshot]

chart 2 - all these chart elements update once daily, After
each day's close

Note the S&P 1500 index price action and its daily Advance-Decline values are shown



chart 3 - the internals update only after day's close

* internals for the NYSE common stocks only (not the all issues version)

[rimshot]

21 charts I use together as a package for identifying whether to remain swing long or remain swing short the overall U.S. equity market:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871

fyi - for only a few more weeks, I intend to leave up this Public List extracted from my best personal chart folders

cheers! And be sure to recognize to turn the page numbers at the bottom right of the website to see all 21 charts

* My interpretation comments and detailed current examples for guidance are included beneath the first two charts *

Please - do not ask me questions here at IHub, because I am rarely logged in these days.

take care, Glen and all. my best to you in 2017.

[rimshot]

swing hold SPY short is the profitable action while RSP remains below $88.18,

and knowing horizontal support below at 87.54 to 87.64 zone must fail permanently in order for bears to control the SPY price action to the downside

no bullish control for SPY until RSP actually permanently holds above the $88.18 horizontal level.

* see that the RSP:SPY daily ratio is recently achieving daily closes approaching the ratio's late December 2016 low, and that the ratio is generally forming lower tops since December.

here is a comment thread about the topic of the ratio, since it is what I consider one of the top 3 TA tools for trading the SPY, and choosing when to be swing long or swing short the SPY -

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post/caution-rspspy-ratio-is-declining-8378191?pid=1294545590

chart #1 - RSP daily, with RSP:SPY ratio



yes, my handle other locations is hiker, while I am rimshot at IHub

the horizontals on this RSP daily chart will not be correctly reflect the future price action after Quad Ex in this IHub post once the next SPY and RSP quarterly dividend payment takes place, so I will need to re-post a chart update when the next Quad Options Expiry takes placewith chart settings that reflect the payment in the look-back price history.

chart #2 - RSP 60-min, with RSP:SPY hourly closes ratio within two different BB's

* at the close on Monday January 23, 2017 the bad news bears are controlling the internals for SPY because the RSP:SPY ratio has been living in the downside as evidenced by lower tops since last week's peak for the ratio -

[rimshot]

the chart collection I posted here in 2011 continues to "live-update", and is worth a close examination every day, now that we see the setups developing ... some chart elements have to prove their real intentions at this point 0::

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62535707

* Important - upon every Friday close, pay close attention to whether the RSI-14 lower tops formation over the recent years on the weekly continues to print

(consider the outcome which followed the 2006 to 2007 lower tops formation by the $NYA RSI-14 !!! ) Though the spacing then was much closer than now between what may currently turn out to be lower tops again for the weekly RSI-14

interesting FYI - in chart #2 which shows the CRB index, the bounce off the multi-year low which then peaked at 2011 before reversing back down represented very close 61.8% retracement of the entire prior declining amount from the all-time CRB high to the low being printed. I suggest the correlation between the direction of $NYA price action and the direction of the CRB index merits watching the relationship as it progresses into June 2017, and then December end 2017.

cheers, and this is my last post here for a few weeks, though I may have time to update the 5 boards I moderate at IHub.

take care all, and thank you Glen for hosting this forum. My best wishes to you and yours.

by midnight daily, my comments and chart revisions will be reflected in the 22 charts which "live-update" at stockcharts.com Public List.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871

[rimshot]

NYSE # highs/lows

F 132 / 18 January 27
Th 265 / 9 January 26
W 329 / 9 January 25
T 209 / 12 January 24
M 84 / 14 January 23, 2017

NYSE Composite Index monthly chart with Dow Jones Transportation Average, S&P 500 index, & the NYSE all issues McSum vs. its zero line:

* the pink overlay represents the plot of the monthly closes for /CL oil futures
* watch all these chart elements.
* 8 to 15% price declines in any future major retracement down will test and/or downside violate key levels for each chart element>
The early clues will unfold in this $NYA monthly & the daily/weekly $NYA

Shown in the chart link - $9198.20 is the $TRAN prior record daily close high in late 2014, above which the 'bullish breakout' case depends

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p59735735176&a=364138002

NYAD daily histograms, with 3 smoothing moving avgs. -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=13&id=p73169467985&a=382915168

* Vigilance watch the smoothed NYAD for:
1. trend change Confirm - smoothed NYAD status change vs. the NYAD zero line
2. for Positive or Negative Divergence vs. price structure
3. for incidents of 'tap and reverse' action following approaches of the Buy or Sell zones marked on the NYAD chart

*$210.70 horizontal level - Marks the $CRB index bearish-confirmation price structure and the March 2015 daily close low, which remains approx. 7% above the 2016 to 2017 intraday price highs for $CRB

*$NYA daily as of 1/27 - 10 daily closes in Jan more than 2 std dev abv 200dsma
*$NYA - 38.2% future decline off this week's intraday high toward Feb 2016 low = $10,425
*$NYSI below +750 = reversal vigilance req'd, count ur chickens later
*$TRAN daily - Dec at giant distances more than 2 std dev abv 200dsma
*$CRB index - confirmed bearish price construction while below $210.70

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2006-01-01&en=today&id=p51222052546&a=228175247

* risk - % abv 10 21 65 200d MA's explained by Brad Sullivan, owner of Broken Dice Research in Chicago -

Updated 1/27/2017

=================

NOTE - chart links are from my Pro level subscription at StockCharts, so the "s" can be deleted from the URL address, AND then the chart can be viewed accurately only by StockCharts.com subscribers though some chart elements will NOT be visible if you subscription is not at the Pro level.

=================

1. the negative divergence since the 1st half 2016 by the lower highs pattern of the $BPSPX vs. the SPY price action higher highs pattern is telling,
if a technician accepts resolution of such divergences requires patience for the powerful outcome to become evident in the price action.
Much is said about interpreting the chart trend of Bullish Percents index in Thomas J. Dorsey's book on Point and Figure charts.

* daily chart within the context of $BPSPX:$VXO ratio and the $VXO -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX%3A%24VXO&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p48157210897&a=230553765

* daily $NYSI chart with Bullish Percents for 4 indices, and notice the most recent weakening for the BP's relative to their 10-day ema, and except for the NYSE the BP 10 dema's are pointing down! -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&st=2014-06-01&en=today&id=p06521589772&a=248599566

Updated 1/27/2017 pm

===============

RSP:SPY daily closes chart displays a double-top during January for the RSP:SPY ratio - a strong and important negatively divergent internal for the S&P 500 index.

And is definitely a large red flag for probable price action upside in the near future --
unless the RSP:SPY ratio actually holds a future advance back above its January 2017 double-top.

This technical deserves a great deal of day to day vigilance now, because it has high reliability in the tool set of caution flags when price action is NOT being supported by the direction of this internal. The ratio reflects the degree of wide or narrow directional participation by all 500 of the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted individual stock components.

Art Hill has written at StockCharts extensively over the years about the correct interpretation method for the daily RSP:SPY ratio.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44383815563&a=401635439

1. the June/Oct 2016 RSP:SPY ratio's double-bottom structure is important for context, and reminds us to watch the ratio's October 2016 daily close low, if tested from above in 2017/2018.

2. the ratio's April 2016 decline low merits our attention

3. the end of day chart showing S&P 500 new highs - new lows % sharpens the 'narrowing or widening' measurement of the actual participation by the 500 symbols -

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=SPY&c=breadth_new_highs_lows_avg_d

* updated 1/27/2017 pm

==============

* For 19 different index & sector symbols --

based on the 3 pages of charts I have posted here, which update "live" with a browser refresh:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1

the Score value shown below is derived from the Weighted Scoring System values I have assigned based on viewing the multi-day Direction of A-D lines, McSums' Direction, & daily PMO status vs. its signal line & zero line:

minus 18 value -- for the A-D lines' most recent direction, with special attention to one to four days of transition evidence from a new record high or from a new January low - using my custom weighted score using face time viewing of the 19 charts' prior lows/highs & direction since early November 2016. * Heaviest weighting of the Scoring is assigned to transitions to a new near-term or medium-term direction that is actually underway as of today's close.
(worst score seen in January 2017)
* updated 1/27/2017

minus 14 value -- for the McSums' most recent direction - using my custom weighted score using prior highs/lows & near-term direction and the January direction. Transition periods of one to four days to a new direction impact the assignment of a weighted Score value.
* updated 1/27/2017

minus 12 value -- chart status of Carl Swenlin's setting for the daily PMO - above the signal line matters the most with Score of +1,
below signal line is minus 2 or minus 1 if the distance below is narrowing since the separation away from the signal line has peaked,
and below the zero line is -4
(matches the best score seen in January 2017)
* updated 1/27/2017

* use of PMO explained -
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo

=================

XLF daily chart --

* updated for the Jan 26, 2017 close:

Important - XLF today achieves a new record price high on lower momentum vs. most of the prior %b peaks at the price highs in this same price zone.

Be objective, and act cautiously about believing in a high probability continuation to the upside UNLESS
the %b's clearly negate the current lower highs pattern over recent weeks by actually closing some future day in close proximity to the %b 1.0 line.

* updated for the Jan 24 close:

XLF $23.38 = key horizontal inflection level as the current Major upside barrier
( within the upper structure of the XLF price action during the 2016 through January 2017 period )

** if the bulls are going to control further advancing, a chart requirement is:

the $23.38 resistance potential price inflection level needs to be made to act as future horizontal support - be vigilant and be objective.
The price action is what matters, not opinion and certainly not fundamentals since the market price action discounts the future far in advance.

* 1/18/2017 from SentimentTrader.com
Here is every time in 20 years that SPX hovered near a high while financials hit a 1-month low. Partly due to tight range. XLF vs. SPX

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2dSbxbVIAIPHZB.jpg:large

[rimshot]

SPX and OEX bulls have something to prove with the internals by no later than February 10th,
or trouble is likely headed to the US Equity Markets - time will tell. Watch your risk/reward viewpoint and remain objective about the February period through the Options Expiration is my single point in this post. Having exposure in the market is nothing more than a #'s game these days, so objectivity about the actual #'s as they develop is required. I believe February 2017 has the high potential for parting retail traders from their pocketbook unless exceedingly watchful.

Important - Bullish Percents Indices, admittedly still near their upper value ranges, have pulled back for several days NOT confirming the price action for the week ended January 27, 2017 -

all this means is vigilance going forward on these internals for each index

bears want to see the BP's back below their November 2016 lows, and want to see multiple indices printing lower highs by their Bullish Percents Index
(see any of the Dorsey Wright books about Point and Figure Charting for depth about the importance of vigilance regarding Bullish Percents Index)

heads-up: $NYSI below the +750 level can be a bull trap, so be advised this represents another vigilance item. Holding above the +500 level is constructive for the bullish case, but holding below the +750 level for more than 12 weeks following the rise above +500 would represent a clue for high caution if a long-term bull who is holding from June 2012 or from February 2015 or February 2016

[rimshot]

my 3 pages of charts at Public List, which expand on the original Post dated March 23, 2016 -

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1

February 2nd would be a timely review of all these charts, as the majority of the McClellan Summation Index lines are near their January lows, and NOT rising ...

bulls do not have a chance of a lasting price advance until most of these McClellan Summation Index lines turn back up and remain pointing back up

be advised - some data points are more actionable & reliable than others

* for a price context - I point out to you the current & similar SPY price values for:

1. the SPY 65-day simple moving average AND
2. the SPY late December 2016 decline low

"33 consecutive days the $SPX has not had a 1% or more daily range. Longest duration since 34 consecutive days in 1995"

1995 SPX daily -

[rimshot]

key SPY price levels & my current trading direction made clear:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871

backed up by 3 pages of charts + my concise chart interpretation

for swing traders

* the charts "live-update" with a refresh of your browser

[rimshot]

SPY 236.54 = 50dsma vs. 236.50 day low, as of 2:27 pm eastern May 17th

236.30 = 50dema

SPY 240.67 day session high yesterday a.m. to 236.50 is the travel distance for this decline since Tuesday open

(Note - stockcharts has the correct moving average values, ToS or any broker platform does NOT, because their price action does not dividend-adjust the price action history)

shown below is the SPY daily chart, and highlights the use of
the 50,2 daily BB -

[rimshot]

SPY 235.75 = 15-week sma

must hold for the bulls, or we target lower prices for multiple days

weekly SPY -

* the S&P 1500 has a key inflection level at approx. $545, bulls must hold this level for several days, or lower levels will be tested

[rimshot]

XLF daily

* watch all the elements in this chart, especially the new
PMO sell signal after many days of zero line hover ...
the eventual price and indicator outcome has high odds
for lasting staying power

the daily PMO has resided in the confirmed bearish region
below its zero line since late March, so high vigilance going
forward on the PMO chart location

* XLF and SPY bears want to see continued XLF price action residing
below the XLF lower BB ... be vigilant on this chart element

** Note - the XLF to SPY ratio today prints a decline low not seen since early November,
so be objective about the future probability of lasting XLF price upside until the ratio rises again

$22.89 prior low has a high odds of being tested, unless the XLF:SPY ratio starts to rise again ... very important consideration

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index daily chart

* vigilance watch $550.03 key intermediate-term resistance level

[rimshot]

SPY 60-min with RSP 60-min

[rimshot]

SPX daily with S&P 500 Advance-Decline line
and the McClellan breadth indicators for this index:

my chart interpretation as of December 29, 2017 Friday -

* notice the recent weakness in all chart elements is
slightly or moderately large, while the A-D line for the
S&P 500 does not yet reflect a large percentage decline
from its very late December new record high,
all of which calls for prudent future vigilance ...
since the shot over the bullish bow is evident in these chart elements

[rimshot]

SP500 /ES futures in 2017:

Year low: 2239.50

Year high 2698.25

Year close: 2673.00

Change 2017 year: +436.75 / 19.5%
========================================

SPY summary sourced from Yahoo Finance:

Net Assets - 252.87B
YTD Return - 16.68%
Yield - 1.86% Dividend payout

Holdings Turnover -- 4.00%
Total Net Assets -- 93,227.30 M
========================================

Top Holdings -

Name Symbol % Assets

Apple Inc AAPL - 3.95%
Microsoft Corp MSFT - 2.90%
Amazon.com Inc AMZN - 1.99%
Facebook Inc A FB - 1.93%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ - 1.69%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc B BRK.B - 1.63%
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM - 1.60%
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM - 1.60%
Alphabet Inc C GOOG - 1.39%
Alphabet Inc A GOOGL - 1.39%

=======================================

Dividends paid by quarter last 5 years -

December 15 , 2017 - 1.351 Dividend

Sep 15, 2017 - 1.235 Dividend
Jun 16, 2017 - 1.183 Dividend
Mar 17, 2017 - 1.033 Dividend
Dec 16, 2016 - 1.329 Dividend
Sep 16, 2016 - 1.082 Dividend
Jun 17, 2016 - 1.078 Dividend
Mar 18, 2016 - 1.05 Dividend
Dec 18, 2015 - 1.212 Dividend
Sep 18, 2015 - 1.033 Dividend
Jun 19, 2015 - 1.03 Dividend
Mar 20, 2015 - 0.931 Dividend
Dec 19, 2014 - 1.135 Dividend
Sep 19, 2014 - 0.939 Dividend
Jun 20, 2014 - 0.937 Dividend
Mar 21, 2014 - 0.825 Dividend
Dec 20, 2013 - 0.98 Dividend
Sep 20, 2013 - 0.838 Dividend
Jun 21, 2013 - 0.839 Dividend
Mar 15, 2013 - 0.694 Dividend

[rimshot]

S&P 500 Advance - Decline line ends the 2017 year
by declining slightly after posting its new record
high in late December by first touching the region
of the daily 50,2 Upper BB -



A-D line chart #2 -

* the bears have an opportunity now to push
these various chart elements lower in January, and
if no downside follow through takes place in
January to February 2018
it will represent a bullish testimony reflected in this chart very clearly

( my chart interpretation as of Monday January 1, 2018 )

* notice the 15,3 Bollinger Band history for SPY price action
shows the lower BB is touched at the times before the upside reversals
while the Upper BB is touched or actually broken Above
when the price action has a strong upward thrust

* the S&P 500 McClellan Oscillator weakened
during 2nd half of December

[rimshot]

SPY daily price closes chart with the
S&P 500 A-D ratio moving averages lines,
the ITBM indicator for the S&P 500 index,
and the S&P 500 McClellan indicators:

* the direction of the actual lasting price action
is always directionally supported by the
Advance-Decline breadth trend measures shown on this chart,
except for very brief periods of positive or negative divergence
by the SPY price action vs. the Advance-Decline breadth measures

* SPY price closes are plotted vs. the 65,2 Bollinger Band setting

* vigilance watch the future SPY daily closes vs. the 15-day sma

more info. for S&P 500 breadth measures is posted over the years at one of the IHub forums I moderate

http://investorshub.advfn.com/Price-levels-for-Index-futures-levels-to-trade-25108/

and at this SI forum I moderate -

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=59396

[rimshot]

SPX daily closes chart with XLF XLK XLE XLV XLY

* these 6 symbols printed new record daily price closes today -
January 4, 2017

* I marked today's value for the RSI-3 with a pink horizontal line

* a bullish condition while it actually lasts is that the S&P 500 index has not closed below its 34-day price exponential
moving average shown in dark green since late August 2017 - Wow!



chart #2 shows:

SPX daily with the McSum and McO McClellan indicators for the index -

* those inidicaotrs need to improve steadily for the bullish case to last near-term

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index daily chart below:

* $635.93 = S&P 1500 index new record price high today,
January 8, 2018
by only a very slight margin above last week's new record high

Note - this chart only updates all its elements several hours
after each day's close

[rimshot]

SPX cash index $2668 level = the "must hold above" level
for the future bullish case to have any lasting potential

* bulls need to defend the SPX 100-day sma

SPX daily chart -

[rimshot]

SPX 2690.16 horizontal is the level
bulls must eventually defend in future bounces,
for
a lasting price bounce to take hold

chart #1 - SPX daily closes chart, updated settings:



chart #2 - SPX daily with PMO and PMO internals:

* future PMO declines need to be defended by the bulls
at the levels marked with the green Horizontal lines
marked on the PMO ...

** PMO is in a new downtrend, as of
February 6, 2018 with very weak PMO internals

[rimshot]

watch the S&P 1500 index 50-day sma vs. the price action now below

and

* price has only a small distance to resume its recent location below
the daily 21,2 lower Bollinger Band for the daily closes

[rimshot]

NYSE Composite index daily price action with:

with the NYSE common stock only McSum and McO

* see the price horizontals I have placed on the price action
based on prior important highs and lows ... bulls want to recapture price back above those green & brown horizontal lines on a lasting basis,

meaning that no firm & lasting downside takes place in the major US market indices without the $NYA holding below those 6 upper H lines for several weeks duration, as a minimum downside violation event

** PMO for the $NYA is testing the zero line,
be vigilant about its future chart location

the PMO is testing the August 2017 PMO low

PMO education is available here by the daughter of
its creator ( Carl Swenlin ) -

http://stockcharts.com/articles/sharedcharts.php?cc=8512197

[rimshot]

revised SPY daily closes chart, with updated price horizontals based
on selected prior daily close lows and highs:

* the S&P 500 index McO has resided in the customary buy zone for
6 consecutive days, as of February 9, 2018

* FYI - the S&P 500 index ITBM indicator alerted us on a timely basis to be extremely cautious with longs

[rimshot]

SPX 2647.58 = a key horizontal inflection price level

* bullish potential requires a lasting hold above 2647.58
* bearish potential requires a lasting hold below 2647.58

for swing trading evaluation only - not meant for use with
anything other than end of day and beginning of day price action
perspective

chart #1 - SPX daily closes chart, with other related
chart elements for priority consideration:



chart #2 - SPXEW daily chart for
priority consideration if swing trading SPY

* note the bounce now trying to hold in February 2018 originated when the SPXEW made its most recent test and hold of the 21,3
daily lower Bollinger Band .. whether a firm V-bottom
is in place remains to be seen

vigilance watch the SPXEW price action relative to
the daily 21,2 and 21,3 BB's ... and the daily 50,2 BB



chart #3 - SPY weekly

vigilance watch the SPY price action relative to
the weekly 15,2 BB and the weekly 21,2 BB

vigilance watch the SPY price action relative to
the weekly 10-ema, now above price action for some days
... and watch the MA's below the most recent price action

[rimshot]

S&P 500 net Advance-Decline ratios are now
both back above their zero line
as of the February 13, 2018 close

* very important to the bullish case the zero line
is not downside violated by these ratios on a lasting basis

chart #1 - SPX daily chart with
* the S&P 500 McClellan indicators
and
* with the daily A-D ratios:

SPX 2690.16, 2647.58, 2590 =
three of the must hold above price levels
for this most recent price advance off the
early February price low to actually have
lasting staying power



chart #2 - the S&P 500 futures price bars for the February
5th to 8th period

* note the scene of the crime of the VIX crash started from
the /ES futures 2733 level, and

* 2700 was a key horizontal resistance level as a bull/bear divider
during the days which followed including the overnight Globex sessions

https://content.screencast.com/users/EMWS/folders/Jing/media/2c73cc1b-c330-48a4-a498-dbbf53bf8419/2018-02-08_0705.png?platform=hootsuite

[rimshot]

SPX daily with PMO indicator & PMO internals,
the chart settings have been revised for the
February 2018 indicator lows, so far:

chart #1 -



chart #2 -

RSP daily with

* RSP 65,2 BB
RSP 55-day ema

* RSP:SPY ratio for displaying whether price action is being led by the majority of the S&P 500 symbols, or the minority represented
by the very largest market capitalization symbols in the index

* SPX:OEX ratio displaying leadership by the majority of the 500 symbols or by the 100 largest market cap symbols in the index

[rimshot]

SPX:OEX daily ratio chart with SPY and OEX price action:

* bulls must hold the ratio above both the pink and green
horizontal lines in order to provide a healthy internal foundation
for a lasting price advance in the coming months

December 2017 through late January 2018 saw the 100 very largest
market capitalization stocks represented by the OEX index leading
the entire 500 symbol set in the S&P 500 index price action, which was
not a healthy foundation for a lasting price advance
( a negatively divergent internal vs. the record price levels for SPY )

chart #1 -

the use of the SPX to OEX ratio is about measurement of the degree
of price participation by the 500 symbols vs. by the
100 largest market cap. symbols contained within the S&P 500 index



chart #2 -

7 year history for the SPX:OEX daily ratio:

[rimshot]

SPY bull/bear dividers are marked on this
daily chart with:
1. horizontal lines,
2. moving averages, and
3. Bollinger Bands

placed on several chart elements in this single
chart

* November 2017 through late January 2018 saw the 100 very largest
market capitalization stocks represented by the S&P 100 index leading
the entire 500 symbol set in the S&P 500 index price action, which was
not a healthy foundation for a lasting price advance
( a negatively divergent internal vs. the record price levels for SPY )


the use of the SPXEW:SPX ratio is about measuring
the degree of price participation by the
500 symbols
vs. by the 100 largest market cap. symbols
contained within the S&P 500 index

Important Note - the SPXEW:SPX ratio
is approaching its 2017-2018 low, and this
reflects an unhealthy development for the
potential staying power
of a lasting price advance, since a
minority # of stocks in the weighted S&P 500
index are carrying the bulk of the daily %
price change during the current price bounces

[rimshot]

RSP:SPY daily ratio is attempting to print a new multi-year low today for the daily close,
February 21, 2018
( a bearish event for the lasting SPY price action, not necessarily in the immediate future )

the ratio declining is clear evidence of daily control since 2016 of the price action by the top 25
( ranges from 30% to 37% of the S&P 500 entire price action each day )
and by the top 100 largest market capitalization stocks
in
the 500 symbol set composing the weighted S&P 500 index

[rimshot]

$NYA 100-day sma vigilance watch

and zero line watch for the "common stocks only"
Advance-Decline ratios which bulls must absolutely
defend and hold above their zero line in the coming days/weeks

* notice last Friday's high was rejected at the 50 dsma

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index daily showing
623 to 636 horizontal trading range

nothing yet is firmed by this week's price action,
whether the bulls or bears are next likely to
control the direction of price

* bulls need to defend 623 level, if seen during declines

Note - this week's declines did not violate the 15-day sma,
except briefly

[rimshot]

QQQ above 168-171 zone on the daily will be evidence the lasting bullish price action has returned

* the bulls have to prove they can hold price
within the 168-171 area for multiple weeks

note that since at least mid-2017, only ten components
of the 100 symbols in QQQ account for over 55% of
the % change each day by QQQ ... a small # of
weighted component stocks can continue to advance
the QQQ to higher levels, if these stocks continue
to advance to new 52-week price highs

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=qqq



chart #2 - showing percent change since the 2/23/2018 price
close for the current 6 top components:

[rimshot]

QQQ daily chart #2 - showing percent cumulative change since the 2/23/2018 price
close for the current 6 top components in QQQ:

AAPL AMZN MSFT FB GOOG GOOGL




* note that since at least mid-2017, only ten components
of the 100 symbols in QQQ account for over 55% of
the % change each day by QQQ ... a small # of
weighted component stocks can continue to advance
the QQQ to higher levels, if these stocks continue
to advance to new 52-week price highs

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=qqq

chart #3 - % change since the price close of the final trading in 2017:

[rimshot]

RSP daily sees today's early a.m. bounce rejected
at the prior high from February 16, 2018 :

* today's high is the highest RSP price level reached
since the early February low,

and a trader needs to be aware of the
75% and 95% retracement levels back up of the entire prior decline

It is now optimal that the 61.8% and 50.0% retracement levels
act as lasting support during any future declines in the
next few weeks

* 2760 = the SPX breakout resistance level surpassed today, which now must hold as lasting horizontal support
in future days to confirm today as more than a 2-day wonder
event

the breadth & price wonder event counts last Friday's NYA/SPX/NDX/COMPQ's multi-month
Net Advance-Decline breadth daily value represented
as the largest Net value

seen since approx. August 2017, depending on index

* 2770.18 = next upper horizontal resistance for SPX

important Note - being a skeptic here in the intermdiate-term
is prudent, since the RSP to SPY daily ratio
is today printing an extreme
(relative to the BB) multi-year new low,
meaning a shrinking & minority number of the very largest caps
within the 500 symbols composing the S&P 500 index,
are leading today's and Friday's price charge --

an ever increasing concentration represented by a decreasing number of symbols
in the S&P 500 index seeing the most net buying
pressure is not forever a positive foundation
for a lasting price advance

* watch whether the RSP holds the 50-day sma as
future support during price declines in the coming
days/weeks

[rimshot]

SPX bulls need to defend the 2770.16 and 2760
prior intraday breakout price levels, OR

2740, 2720, 2710 will be certainly retested from above,
at a minimum for the current pullback off today's multi-day
bounce high for the SPX and for SPY

( horizontal support levels during the recent weeks
of price action )

SPX daily closes chart, with important SPX
internals:

[rimshot]

the QQQ February 2018 monthly price candle "formation" pattern
will close February with a somewhat similar formation pattern
as took place in early 2000 before the big price decline

learn from the past history, OR repeat the same experience

that quote may apply here in this moment, and into March - May 2018

we certainly have an opportunity to apply our technical craft,
with the benefit of the look-back history

only a paid SC member will be able to view this correctly

QQQ and AMZN monthly since before the year 2000

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=M&st=1997-01-01&en=today&id=p64326579675&a=428717429

* I am speaking in general terms about the monthly candle and
its distinction vs. all the other monthly candles over the years
... am not pointing out a precise comparison to the early 2000
monthly candle

[rimshot]

XLK lasting double-top is a possibility that
every trader must admit and consider,
until proven otherwise

XLK daily

* violating XLK 60.97 price level is required
to actually confirm the double-top is a valid
pattern

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLK&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=20&id=p50853433504&a=401947709

[rimshot]

revised SPY daily closes chart:

* this is my final post for a while,
for the sake of respecting what is
already included in the content of this
forum and the continued action ability
in the future of the existing chart data
shared in individual posts at this forum
hosted so generously and competently by Glen

the chart below with the others shared with you
in recent weeks provide quality guidance,
whether a bull or a bear at any moment in
time

** remember: nearly all the charts posted here
update with "live" data from StockCharts.com
when your browser is refreshed while on any
single IHub post

chart #1 -

* take notice the S&P 500 McClellan Oscillator (McO)
smoothed with the 21-day simple moving average resides as
of February 27, 2018 at:

the greatest distance below the McO zero line witnessed
in many months,

and is not yet turning back up ...

this S&P 500 McO condition
has been a fair warning to not give much time worthy trust to price rallies,
even though it will require several days/weeks of
positive S&P 500 Advance-Decline breadth to accomplish
the math to turn the McO's 21-day moving average
back to the upside for more than a brief duration



chart #2 - SPX daily price action with S&P 500 Advance-Decline data sets:

[rimshot]

revised SPX daily with inverted $VIX shown at the bottom of chart:

* price now rests at a chart location marked
by key moving averages
and
with the prior multi-week intraday price low
only a few points below these MA's
( as of the February 28, 2018 close )

chart #1 -



chart #2 - SPX daily with the S&P 500 McClellan indicators
and with the S&P 500 Advance-Decline ratios

* bulls need to defend the A-D ratios by:

turning the ratios back to the upside
and
maintaining both ratios above their zero line

[rimshot]

revised RSP daily ( S&P 500 Equally Weighted for all 500 symbols in the index ):

* note the dashed black colored Horizontal price line
is a specific upside retracement percentage calculated
from:

the prior major February 2018 price decline...

and this upside % was not even touched by the late
February price action before the current pullback
by RSP and SPY price action kicked off immediately
following the Fed Chairman
Powell's "speak peak" that took place on Tuesday a.m. this week,
when RSP price peaked at $103.72 for the late February price bounce

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index $616 to $612 price zone was a key horizontal
inflection level during the late 2017 through February 2018
price action, so here is a view of the

Point & Figure chart for the S&P 1500 index, to
see how we are faring in that view during this
February 27th through March 1, 2018 pullback from
Tuesday's bounce high since the February 2018
decline low

[rimshot]

revised SPX daily with inverted $VIX

* bulls need to defend SPX

2659.19
2642.22

if re-visited from above in future days/months

* bulls need a lasting breakout above:

( notice the recent breakout above the
price level shown below did not hold except
briefly )

2770.16

chart #1 -



chart #2 -

revised S&P 1500 index daily chart,
with similar settings to the SPX daily shown above

SPX to S&P 1500 ratio vs. its 89,2 Bollinger Band
is shown at the bottom of the chart ... when
the S&P 1500 is positively or negatively diverging
vs. the SPX price action, it is "brain-dead" obvious
while you take a gander for an intraday view of this chart

[rimshot]

XLK daily version #2 showing the XLK:SPY
ratio displayed at the bottom of this chart
provides the evidence which Art Hill
discusses in his March 3rd blog post
at SC that:

XLK is the strongest of the 11 sector Spyders,
and since it is the largest percentage contribution
to the daily SPY and SPX price action,
is an extremely important
vigilance watch for traders

note: the XLK to SPY ratio rests in late February and early
March 2018 at new record highs, since the "bubble" decline slide days of 1999 to 2003

chart #1 -



chart #2 - 20 year history for the XLK:SPY ratio's daily closes

[rimshot]

SPY bears must hold price below $271.55
on
a lasting basis
or
future intraday pullbacks
are a "dip buying" opportunity

this price level is valid through Friday
March 9, 2018 close

( another value is assigned next week
to this adaptive metric for this SPY
chart element -- the chart time frame and
the specific TA tool has an 85% predictive reliability
as a lasting reversal trigger ---
based on 7 years of chart history )

SPY daily with a portion of Glen's
CCI targeting trigger system for
Moving Average price objectives:

[rimshot]

/ES futures 2763.75 = my 65% to 90% odds bet for
the March 15th Thursday settlement price at
day's end

I give 0% to 15% chance that price action will see
the /ES touch or decline below $2648 between now
and then

Note - /ES 2772.00 = High Volume of price prints have
taken place in this region in the past, so will potentially
act as a magnet in the future ...
vigilance watch
/ES 2772.00 when touched in the future, to see if an immediate
push to the upper levels above takes place
OR
the advance is rejected by 2772.00 approach

* Important:

Top five sectors account for over 75% of the S&P 500 price action: XLK XLF XLV XLY XLI

XLK impacting approx. 25% of the S&P 500 price action each day
is likely to break to new highs and hold above the prior high before
March 15th close ... the XLK:SPY ratio has hovered near its new
multi-decade level achieved last week ... the strongest
sector continues to see the highest concentration of net buying pressure from fund managers

SPX daily with some basic upside retracement levels placed on
the chart -

* I give 75 to 95% odds that the upside retracement
of 75% to 90% will be achieved no later than April 10, 2018



whether the bulls or the bears actually execute in the near-term
will be evident in what level of upside retracement
actually
prints on that chart by March 16th a.m.

[rimshot]

SPX daily closes above 2732 are
needed for several days in order
to see a short squeeze and lasting buying surge in earnest,
and seriously discourage the bearish bias
which remains in the psychology or
in the hopes and dreams
of some traders/technicians

for those who know where to look,
Don W. made a telling public statement
in recent weeks which is a valuable
reminder, and I have summed up his
sentiment in my own words below:

the more bleak it temporarily appears,
the healthier and more sustainable will be the following
advancing sequence

and I remind you that the longer is the period of
horizontal price basing, the more sustainable
is the following breakout or breakdown
( an accepted classic rule among market technicians )

* here is a link to John Bollinger's Market Timing
Chart Pack, for which permission is already granted
to re-distribute

a PDF file
Note - chart #21 is newly added with this March 6, 2018 update

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/58be43_15ad120e53af463098e5c35709ff44e5.pdf

[rimshot]

SPY 271.14 = the bull/bear divider using
a reliable technical from the daily chart

bears need to defend future bounces up to 271.14,
OR
the bulls can attempt to regain upward control

Note - the price value of this adaptive
chart element will be different after today's
March 19, 2018 close

SPY daily closes chart for a perspective:

[rimshot]

SPX "save" today in the vicinity of the 150-day sma:

SPX daily chart with PMO and PMO internals -

* it will be a firmly bearish event, if and when
SPX holds below its 150 dsma

[rimshot]

SPY daily closes chart with revised settings,
to reflect the most telling interpretation comments I
shared at this forum in today's posts about
SPY and $SPX:

* only the most significant SPY price horizontals
for interpretation reliability
are shown on this SPY chart

[rimshot]

2 charts for complacent bulls:

* I forecast 75% to 100% odds we are not
likely to see a lasting V-bottom for
SPY any time soon
AND
before at least
SPY $245 to $248 zone is tested from above
( a lasting hold back above the 268 - 274 zone will
negate this probability )

chart #1 - SPY

* virtually no horizontal price basing took
place between $256 and $213, so the next
proven lower horizontal breakout level to
eventually be tested from above is $213
( greater than 50% odds of such test, and such re-tests
of prior breakouts are customary )



chart #2 - S&P 1500 index

* only a single period of horizontal price basing took
place between $590 and $508, so the next
proven lower horizontal breakout level to
eventually be tested from above is $508
( greater than 50% odds of such test,
and such re-tests of prior breakouts are customary )

[rimshot]

SPY bulls require price back above the 50,2 daily lower
BB, on a lasting basis

* if the 50,2 BB width continues to expand for a period of weeks,
it will mean with 100% reliability that future price bounces should be sold

note that the daily chart below plots:

SPY and RSP 50,2 daily Bollinger Band & 200-day sma's

( RSP = the Equally Weighted version of SPY )

** if the now pending possible dramatic change actually occurs for the characteristic
in play since June 2016 that routine dip buying of the brief declines
to near or below the lower BB produced a profitable outcome ...
the character change will be clearly evident in this chart

[rimshot]

SPX weekly with major Fibonacci retracements:

[rimshot]

bears want the SPX and $NYA
# of new 52-week price lows to
exceed the early February 2018 low at:

42 for the SPX
479 for the $NYA

* the # of new lows for the $NYA is not
yet at the halfway point toward the
479 # of new price lows seen at the
early February price low ...
so a potential positive divergence by
the # of price lows could be the eventual
outcome, and bullish for future price action
if the divergence remains

[rimshot]

bears want the Advance-Decline percents' 10-day ema for these
four indices to
remain below the -30 level for a # of weeks:

daily chart -

[rimshot]

future SPY failure to hold above 263.76 horizontal
increases the probability of a lasting price decline

the daily chart below plots the 200-day sma and the
21,2 BB for 6 influential symbols

( ACWI = the all country world stock ishares )

268.01 = the minimum must hold above level for any
lasting price advance to occur

* SPY bears want the RSI-14 to remain below the 40 level, marked
with a red horizontal line

[rimshot]

bears remain in control while the majority percentage weighting of the 5 sector Spyders accounting
for 78.7% of the weighted S&P 500 index price action remain below their 100-day sma

XLK - 27% - above the 100 dsma
XLF - 15% - below the 100 dsma
XLV - 14% - below the 100 dsma
XLY - 13% - above the 100 dsma
XLI - 10% - below the 100 dsma

time will tell if this condition changes for more of the controlling
top 5 symbols ... at this moment, I give more than 65% odds that price bounces by these symbols
and by SPY will fail to hold for a lengthy number of days

* I am watching each of these vs. last Thursday's price close, because
bears want a lower close to trigger SPX rally failure confirmation

** all five symbols and SPX remain on a daily 35,20,10 PMO sell signal for a number of consecutive days

SPX daily with the five symbols:

* only XLY is located near its 55-day ema, the other
four symbols are failing to achieve daily closes
above the 55-day ema

[rimshot]

new high minus new low differential percentage daily chart for
four indices:

bears want a lasting hold below the -10% red horizontal line
bulls want a lasting hold above the +10% green horizontal line

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p23207954924&a=585817572

[rimshot]

S&P 500 index daily PMO double-bottom vigilance:

* the marked prior decline low PMO chart location has much significance

no lasting bear unless this PMO level is actually violated
for a period of weeks

NOTE - the PMO setting is not one which moves the PMO quickly, so upward reversals by the SPX
price action require some time to actually move the PMO back up

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2014-12-01&id=p62330892016&a=417728869

the early November 2016 prior PMO decline low was
the launch point for the upward reversal following the Presidential election outcome

[rimshot]

XLK daily PMO testing its zero line for the 2nd time in
2018

* bulls need to defend the PMO zero line

* PMO is re-testing its early February low,
so the significance of this zero line test
is doubled for the potential price impact
following the zero line test outcome

no bear case is firmly proven until a lasting hold
below the XLK zero line

XLK = 27% of the total S&P 500 price action

[rimshot]

early February 2018 daily close low vigilance,
marked with a red horizontal line on these daily
chart links for SC members -

you will not see the correct info. if not an SC member

sector Spyders for the S&P 500 index:

* XLK XLF XLV, XLY, XLI, XLP account for the largest % of the total price action

* a good chance for a powerful & durable price advance
now exists as long as the early February 2018 daily close lows are not violated by future daily closes...
this is much
more important than watching whether a moving average is violated, imo

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24298260745&a=581747422

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p12967906760&a=581747423

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p35937837598&a=581747424

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46775323254&a=581747425

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61739790522&a=581747426

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53408788953&a=585815554

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLB&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14008769186&a=585815767

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52765479998&a=585815791

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66256300516&a=585816575

NOTE - once the next dividend is paid for any of these symbols,
the horizontal line needs to be adjusted downward by the amount
of the future dividend

[rimshot]

the SPY March 2018 large unfilled gap down resides
above the daily 200,1 upper BB ...
a location to watch once price tests
that upper BB from below in the future

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68579369297&a=585961965

* the 200-day ema has held for multiple consecutive
days this week

[rimshot]

the 100 largest cap names ( $OEX ) in the S&P 500 index
were crushed for all of March 2018,
And
to a larger relative degree than were the total
500 symbols in the index

this 4-year history of the $OEX:$SPX daily ratio displays
a potential for a near-term bottom spotter

also of interest, is the 50,3 lower BB has not been tagged
by SPY or $OEX since 2nd half 2016, since just before the Presidential
election outcome was known

[rimshot]

when SPY has spent lengthy periods below its 200-day ema
has coincided with when the NYSE common stock only symbol set's
Advance-Decline line's 19 and 39-day ema's have a negative cross to
each other:

chart #1 - 10-year daily history



chart #2 - NYSE common stock only Advance-Decline line, A-D ratio, and McClellan indicators

* the McClellan Summation index is now hovering just above its
zero line, so high vigilance is required whether a bull or a bear

bulls do not want to see a lasting decline below the McSum zero line



chart #3 - Swenlin Trading Oscillator for the
NYSE common stocks only symbol set

[rimshot]

close up version of post #19505 -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67078701035&a=586367819

[rimshot]

sell SPY rallies while price actually holds below the 268 to 274/274.80 zone

And

buy SPY dips, unless the 248 to 264.90 zone fails to hold during intraday declines;

I cannot prudently tighten this potential dip buying zone more at this time because this bull/bear battle is likely to heighten price volatility on an intraday basis for a few more weeks ... especially, since all
the subscription services I read are now talking the positive April seasonality as a prime reason to be bullish in April

* like last week, this coming week will run over both bears and bulls with failing declines and failing price advances, imo ...

the potential horizontal zone of 248/250 to 268 remains in play, until proven otherwise ...
with SPY 274/274.80 as the potential upper resistance above that
resides above 268

/ES 2733 to 2747.75 = ditto for major R, unless /ES immediately holds above this level during a future and lasting advance

* I give only 45 to 65% odds the March 2018 intraday price low for SPY is not eventually violated to the downside, at least briefly

chart #1 -



chart #2 -



chart #3 -

[rimshot]

SPX daily closes chart & S&P 500 Advance-Decline line:

* it is a firmly bearish event of high significance & reliability when
the A-D line's 19-day ema crosses below the 39-day ema in the future

( the use of these ema settings on the A-D line was created by Mr. and Mrs. Sherman McClellan several decades ago )

* you can readily see the new record high by the S&P 500 A-D line
achieved in early March 2018 did not produce
a new record price high for the S&P 500 index ... be careful
of services and articles which tell you the price uptrend is probably safe because an A-D line is at new highs

[rimshot]

SPY holding above its 200-day ema depends
with 100% correlation during the 11-year daily history
shown below on two conditions:

1. holding above the 50% level - for the % of the S&P 500 component stocks whose PMO is above the zero line

2. holding above the zero line - by the McClellan Summation Index for the selected four indices

* as of April 6, 2018, item #1 above is below the 50% level since mid-March, and item #2 is only slightly above the zero lines ...

the degree of peril is high for the future SPY price action actually holding above its 200-day ema,
the bulls need to soon reverse all these chart elements
back to the upside

chart #1 -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PMOAZSPX&p=D&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08708198884&a=587504104



chart #2 - daily SPX with PMO & PMO internals & S&P 500 McClellan Summation index

NOTE - the SPX price history is not adjusted downward for
each quarterly dividend that is paid, while the SPY price history is ... which means the current price location vs. moving averages
and vs. Bollinger Bands differs, and differs to a larger degree the closer is the date to the dividend date -- the 3rd Friday in March, June, September, December

[rimshot]

PMO vigilance for the S&P 1500 index daily chart:

* firmly bearish while the PMO holds below the zero line

* bulls need to defend RSI-14 above the 40 level, during dips

[rimshot]

SPY bears must hold price below the weekly 15,2 lower BB in order
to violate the 50-week ema on a lasting basis

* the Moving Average Envelope shown below is placed at 9.4% above and below
the 50-week exponential moving average, because the major corrections
of 2015 & 2016 were in the vicinity of this specific percentage
below the 50-week ema

SPY weekly using the 15,2 Bollinger Band -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p74989278944&a=587618186

[rimshot]

HD is #20 in the top 25 component stocks for
the capitalization weighted S&P 500 index -

vigilance watch the March/April lows
using the HD weekly:

* HD is trending down with its declining
13-week ema

* the HD:SPY ratio topped in late January 2018, and
the ratio continues to decline...
a new weekly close low for the ratio will be bearish
evidence for both HD and SPY

top 25 components in S&P 500 -

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=SPY

[rimshot]

SPX daily net Advance-Decline values:

407, 371 and 384 are the three April highs

384 was today's value

[rimshot]

SPX above or below its 50-day sma is
correlated with zero line vigilance
as shown in the A-D percent 10-day moving
average shown in chart:

chart #1 - SPX daily



chart #2 - SPX daily

* we have not seen 301 S&P 500 stocks above
their 50-day sma since early February 2018 ...
bulls need this metric to continue to rise
OR
the price rally will soon reverse



chart #3 - S&P 500 Advance-Decline line with the
50,2 %b and 21,2 %b

* vigilance watch the extent of future up and down
movement by the two %b's ...
bulls do NOT want
to see periods below their .50 lines



will see you here from time to time in the coming months, though
my frequent posting and trading of recent weeks is giving way to outdoor
recreation ... take care.

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index daily chart with several BB settings:

100 and 50-day sma remain overhead, for now

* bulls need the 21-day sma to hold as support during
future declines,
OR
back toward the lower BB we go

Note - the 13-day smoothing of the daily Advance-Decline percentage
has held near or above its zero line for all of April 2018, so far

[rimshot]

SPY weekly

Note - all the BB settings and %B settings are my personal
preference for this specific weekly chart, and not what is "normal"

[rimshot]

this chart updates once daily, after the market close

explained here in detail if you want to take the time -0

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1

[rimshot]

SPX daily chart, with my comments updated
for Friday's close -

last week was orderly and clearly a technical
trading set up for chart driven traders

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141910820

my charts with comments are now
organized at this single board I started in 2012 -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Price-levels-for-Index-futures-levels-to-trade-25108/

[rimshot]

* the S&P 100 index closely approached the rising daily 50,3 upper Bollinger Band
for the first time in months on Wednesday July 25, 2018

through July 25th, the $OEX was sharply outperforming the $SPX for all of July 2018 … with a dramatic pullback on July 26th

the very largest market capitalization size stocks have been contributing more to the
S&P 500 index July price advance than the majority of the 500 stocks in the index


so the fate of the S&P 500 index has an even greater dependence on the S&P 100 index stocks

watch the $OEX going forward, as well as the $OEX to $SPX daily ratio

[rimshot]

summary of the cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines:

8/02 - Advance-Decline line status:

* bullish uptrend by the A-D line remains intact for all listed below, while the A-D line remains above the 19-day ema -

* note - some of the distances above the 19-day ema are small, and a lasting decline below the 19-day ema
will not require more than a day or two of negative A-D breadth to initiate a lengthy correction downward
for the Advance-Decline lines

* Cumulative A-D line pullbacks during bull markets often target the A-D lines' 50 day sma, and is what I consider
a customary expectation for even minor breadth and price pullbacks during an intermediate-term uptrend

S&P 500 A-D line - above the 19-day ema
S&P 100 A-D - above
NYSE common-stocks-only A-D - above, was below briefly
NYSE all issues A-D - above, was below briefly
Nasdaq 100 A-D - above, was below briefly
Dow Jones Industrial A-D - above
S&P 400 A-D - above
S&P 600 A-D - above

A-D lines chart source: Stockcharts.com

my chart set showing this data can be viewed here

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871

[rimshot]

$SPX holding above $2872.87 makes
shorting the related index products
extremely dangerous,
so exit timing
needs to be perfect, along
with careful managing the stop order that
is protecting trade profits, if any

please be cautious if shorting while $SPX
holds above $2873, the prior 2018 daily close high

FYI -

new record bounce highs for SPY & /ES :

291.74 = 2917.50 late day August 29
291.62 = 2916.25 mid-day August 29
290.42 a.m. / 2906.25 August 28 before cash market open
289.90 mid-day / 2899.50 after cash market close August 27
289.68 = 2897.00 August 27 a.m.
287.67 = 2877.50 August 24 mid-day
287.31 = 2874.00 August 21 mid-day
286.88 = 2869.75 August 21, 2018 a.m.
2863.75 prior August high

/ES decline lows:

2850.00
2831.00's
2803.00
2791 August low
2790 late July low
2788 to 2767 often tested horizontal support zone in June to July 2018

RSP new record bounce highs:

107.89 August 29 mid-day
107.54 August 28 a.m.
107.40 August 27 a.m.
106.81 August 21 late day
106.78 August 21 mid-day

[rimshot]

$NDX index and QQQ daily chart showing a single important horizontal price level for QQQ
was tested and held in the week ended October 5, 2018

A new & important chart is added to Page 2 of my personal
"Public List" extracted from my key selected SPX and NDX chart folders:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871

FYI - I have returned from approximately 5.5 months camping in the wilds of Montana and Idaho,
most of the time completely off grid without electricity
or other utility services for our
38-foot Motor Home,
so solar and storage of power in battery banks does in fact work for operating refrigerators and freezers ,
and for charging portable devices in the comfort of luxury

Luci Lite is the best LED portable Lighting on the market, with sunlight recharging the built in battery pack. Amazing engineering in a $19 item

hope you are all well, and happy. Cheers.
Soon, am headed somewhere this winter for outdoor activities on a full-time basis to include at least 40 miles of mountain biking
daily with some kayaking and hiking hours in addition to that, location still being fine tuned

will visit IHub from time to time in the October 2018 to September 2019 period at one of the boards I moderate

plan to hike 70 miles per week again next summer,
with mountain biking thrown in for the May through July 30, 2019 period ...
thank goodness for health and stamina and the fresh quality
food ingredients available in the western states

take it easy, and remember to do what you want cause unselfishness and generous actions have inner peace and fitness as their foundation

[rimshot]

Banking index weekly chart - I added this chart with
my comments today to page 2 as chart #998
at my
Public chart List, which "live-updates" the price action
when you refresh your browser on the chart

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/2

October 8, 2018 - the Banking index price action is negatively divergent
vs. the S&P 500 index and vs. the NYSE Composite index in terms of the chart
location vs. key moving averages shown on this weekly chart

at the moment, the Banking index price action resides below its 21-week
simple moving average and slightly below its 34-week exponential moving average

[rimshot]

$SPX 63-day simple moving average nearly contained
the October 8, 2018 intraday price low
AND
price closed the day above the 63-day

SPX daily chart -

* the S&P 500 ITVM at the zero line now from above is a
major red flag, so predicting the next few days' of price
action direction is vulnerable to mistake ...
for the ITVM's and ITBM's eventual chart location
outcome



* S&P 500 bulls need the ITBM and ITVM to remain above the 10-day ema and above the zero line.
Declines below the 10-day ema often signal a lasting
decline by both price and indicators while holding below the 10-day ema

do not underestimate the importance of:
* the chart location and
* the pattern structure
for the ITBM and ITVM to the actual future price outcome for the S&P 500 and for the US equity market

ITBM defined -
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm

ITVM defined -
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 index # of New Highs minus # of New Lows expressed in percentage terms and Cumulative from a fixed start date which I selected

* reliably actionable chart elements

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SUPHLP&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p48000390916&listNum=95&a=623831152

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 cumulative # of New Highs minus # of New Lows

daily chart

[rimshot]

SPX 150-day sma marks the October 12, 2018
intraday high area this morning

2773 = 150 dsma
2759 = 200 dema
2694 = 300 dsma - not yet approached this week ended October 12th

[rimshot]

the SPY weekly 15,2 lower Bollinger Band value region
as of Monday and Tuesday December 17 and 18, 2018
has proven to be the "buy" price level,

at least for a brief bounce and perhaps a longer period of
upside price action for SPY

time will tell ... you be the judge

the /ES S&P 500 index futures needs to hold above the
2583.50 to 2589.00 price zone to make it more probable a lasting
price advance is even possible from the recent multi-month price
lows achieved by SPY and the S&P 500 index

note the January & February intraday price lows for the S&P 500 index ( $SPX )
will either be eventually downside violated on
a permanent basis or NOT ...

bears and bulls both need
to pay attention daily to those prior early 2018 lows for
the $SPX vs. the future price action --
and to the 70-week simple moving average for $SPX

chart #1 - SPY weekly

* shows 15,2 and 21,2 weekly Bollinger Bands for SPY price action

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p04777601442&a=576045102&r=1521835688360

chart #2 - $SPX weekly with 70,2 Bollinger Band



wishing a happy, holy and peaceful holiday to all,
and
I hope you are grateful to be alive one more
day and enjoying this day ...
make the best of each day,
and either cry or smile because
it is your choice how to respond to life

[rimshot]

$NYA daily & weekly charts revised on
December 19, 2019 Wednesday FOMC day

three charts displayed in the link below located
at one of the IHub boards I moderate

$NYA daily, $NYA daily with $TRAN and other indices, $NYA weekly -

$NYA 2018 price action displays at least 3 major periods
of lower price high sequences,
and the
final lower high sequence in the 2nd half of the year
exhibits a potential triple top price formation

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145576663

[rimshot]

three $NYA daily & weekly charts revised
again to most clearly reflect and highlight the specific
technical importance now underway -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145581847

[rimshot]

$NYA daily & weekly charts revised on
December 21, 2019 Friday -- monthly options expiration day
and Quad Witch event

the three charts are displayed in the link below located
at one of the IHub boards I moderate

$NYA daily, $NYA daily with $TRAN and other indices,
$NYA weekly shown at the link -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145647557

===========================

/ES 2712.25 / 2690.00 levels must eventually be surpassed on
a lasting basis, OR the bears continue to rule
the day for many months or years to come ...

/ES 2548 region is the next level below, which
the bulls must permanently surpass with future price
bounces to gain upside traction having probable
staying power

pullback lows by /ES S&P 500 futures of interest since June 2018:

2409.25 - December 21 very late day
2441.50 - mid day
2476.25 - December 20 morning globex session
2489.50 - December 19 day session
2531.00 - December 18 late day
2533.xx - December 17 late day

* the sharp decline lower started
after October 5 and continued into October 26, 2018, followed by
a brief pause

2712.25 - in week ended October 12
2873.25 - October 5 late day
2887.75 - October 4 mid-day
2865.00 - September 7 a.m.
2877.50 - September 5
2885.50 - September 4
2891.75 - August 31
2876.75 - low in week ended August 31
2850.00
2831.00's
2803.00
2791 August low
2790 late July low
2788 to 2767 = the often tested horizontal support zone in June to July 2018

/ES futures chart - weekly

[rimshot]

$SPX - instructions for reliably determining a profitable trade bias direction for swing trading
- long or short -
based on the current trending slope direction of
the S&P 500 Net Advance-Decline Breadth line's 50-day simple moving average

** replaces the prior sticky post #16579 **

http://schrts.co/u5mVKS

link above is:

the daily chart for end of day review, since the Advance-Decline
Breadth line only updates once a day after the market closes

the chart also displays -

SPY daily price bars in real-time, with 21,2 Bollinger Band
$SPX daily price bars with 21,2 Bollinger Band
$SPX daily price bars with 50,3 Bollinger Band

* when the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Breadth line oscillates between
the 50,2 Upper Bollinger Band and the Lower Bollinger Band, the
US equity market is behaving in what is customarily considered a healthy market
that is routinely balancing bearish and bullish sentiment

VS.

long-duration violations of the Advance-Decline Breadth line's
Upper or Lower Bollinger Band represents an actual
unhealthy control by --

either the bullish sentiment
( when above the Upper BB for a long duration )

OR

the bearish sentiment

( when below the Lower BB for a long duration )

[rimshot]

$SPX - instructions for reliably determining a profitable trade bias direction for swing trading
- long or short -
based on the current trending slope direction of
the S&P 500 Net Advance-Decline Breadth line's 50-day simple moving average

** replaces the prior sticky post #16579 and #21530 **

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p50238444805&a=607135436

link above is:

the daily chart for end of day review, since the Advance-Decline
Breadth line only updates once a day after the market closes

the chart also displays -

SPY daily price bars in real-time, with 21,2 Bollinger Band
$SPX daily price bars with 21,2 Bollinger Band
$SPX daily price bars with 50,3 Bollinger Band

* when the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Breadth line oscillates between
the 50,2 Upper Bollinger Band and the Lower Bollinger Band, the
US equity market is behaving in what is customarily considered a healthy market
that is routinely balancing bearish and bullish sentiment

VS.

long-duration violations of the Advance-Decline Breadth line's
Upper or Lower Bollinger Band represents an actual
unhealthy control by --

the bullish sentiment
( when above the Upper BB for a long duration of more than 17 trading days )

OR

the bearish sentiment
( when below the Lower BB for a long duration of more than 17 trading days )

[rimshot]

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47249717189&a=183961259&r=1458750742284

1st time since early 1990's the percent of Bulls is showing
Zero Percent Bulls
in this
Weekly Sentiment Survey taken by its author every Friday >>>>

* Notice that $291.03 = the SPY weekly 21 SMA ( using dividend-adjusted look back price history, which is the default setting at StockCharts )

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&st=2007-03-01&i=p90554056527&a=340963757&r=1570021207464

[rimshot]

SPY weekly for many months has a rising trend, so
is the past going to predict the future reliably is
what we have to decide if actually investing or trading

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&st=2013-08-26&i=p72485332110&a=369089730&r=1575299426346

Don Wolanchuk posted at Traders-Talk.com this weekend
he sees $INDU at 36,000 ... he correctly stated it would
reach 24,000 several thousand points before it did that

Tom Bowley at StockCharts and at StockCharts TV who
presents with Erin Swenlin made a blog post at SC that
he sees $SPX achieving $4,000 while he believes a
correction is nearby now

Don Wolanchuk is famous for stating :

you worry too much

believe me, his wisdom on that topic is to be heard
if you care about $'s in your capital growth accounts

S&P Composite 1500 index daily chart
with PMO internals for the S&P 500 index
that are now at or recently above a potential highly powerful
inflection level {s} which I marked with Lime green colored
horizontal lines -

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPSUPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p36403893029&a=691610419&r=1573923853368