CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[rimshot]

NYSE # highs/lows

F 132 / 18 January 27
Th 265 / 9 January 26
W 329 / 9 January 25
T 209 / 12 January 24
M 84 / 14 January 23, 2017

NYSE Composite Index monthly chart with Dow Jones Transportation Average, S&P 500 index, & the NYSE all issues McSum vs. its zero line:

* the pink overlay represents the plot of the monthly closes for /CL oil futures
* watch all these chart elements.
* 8 to 15% price declines in any future major retracement down will test and/or downside violate key levels for each chart element>
The early clues will unfold in this $NYA monthly & the daily/weekly $NYA

Shown in the chart link - $9198.20 is the $TRAN prior record daily close high in late 2014, above which the 'bullish breakout' case depends

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p59735735176&a=364138002

NYAD daily histograms, with 3 smoothing moving avgs. -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=13&id=p73169467985&a=382915168

* Vigilance watch the smoothed NYAD for:
1. trend change Confirm - smoothed NYAD status change vs. the NYAD zero line
2. for Positive or Negative Divergence vs. price structure
3. for incidents of 'tap and reverse' action following approaches of the Buy or Sell zones marked on the NYAD chart

*$210.70 horizontal level - Marks the $CRB index bearish-confirmation price structure and the March 2015 daily close low, which remains approx. 7% above the 2016 to 2017 intraday price highs for $CRB

*$NYA daily as of 1/27 - 10 daily closes in Jan more than 2 std dev abv 200dsma
*$NYA - 38.2% future decline off this week's intraday high toward Feb 2016 low = $10,425
*$NYSI below +750 = reversal vigilance req'd, count ur chickens later
*$TRAN daily - Dec at giant distances more than 2 std dev abv 200dsma
*$CRB index - confirmed bearish price construction while below $210.70

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2006-01-01&en=today&id=p51222052546&a=228175247

* risk - % abv 10 21 65 200d MA's explained by Brad Sullivan, owner of Broken Dice Research in Chicago -

Updated 1/27/2017

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NOTE - chart links are from my Pro level subscription at StockCharts, so the "s" can be deleted from the URL address, AND then the chart can be viewed accurately only by StockCharts.com subscribers though some chart elements will NOT be visible if you subscription is not at the Pro level.

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1. the negative divergence since the 1st half 2016 by the lower highs pattern of the $BPSPX vs. the SPY price action higher highs pattern is telling,
if a technician accepts resolution of such divergences requires patience for the powerful outcome to become evident in the price action.
Much is said about interpreting the chart trend of Bullish Percents index in Thomas J. Dorsey's book on Point and Figure charts.

* daily chart within the context of $BPSPX:$VXO ratio and the $VXO -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX%3A%24VXO&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p48157210897&a=230553765

* daily $NYSI chart with Bullish Percents for 4 indices, and notice the most recent weakening for the BP's relative to their 10-day ema, and except for the NYSE the BP 10 dema's are pointing down! -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&st=2014-06-01&en=today&id=p06521589772&a=248599566

Updated 1/27/2017 pm

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RSP:SPY daily closes chart displays a double-top during January for the RSP:SPY ratio - a strong and important negatively divergent internal for the S&P 500 index.

And is definitely a large red flag for probable price action upside in the near future --
unless the RSP:SPY ratio actually holds a future advance back above its January 2017 double-top.

This technical deserves a great deal of day to day vigilance now, because it has high reliability in the tool set of caution flags when price action is NOT being supported by the direction of this internal. The ratio reflects the degree of wide or narrow directional participation by all 500 of the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted individual stock components.

Art Hill has written at StockCharts extensively over the years about the correct interpretation method for the daily RSP:SPY ratio.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44383815563&a=401635439

1. the June/Oct 2016 RSP:SPY ratio's double-bottom structure is important for context, and reminds us to watch the ratio's October 2016 daily close low, if tested from above in 2017/2018.

2. the ratio's April 2016 decline low merits our attention

3. the end of day chart showing S&P 500 new highs - new lows % sharpens the 'narrowing or widening' measurement of the actual participation by the 500 symbols -

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=SPY&c=breadth_new_highs_lows_avg_d

* updated 1/27/2017 pm

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* For 19 different index & sector symbols --

based on the 3 pages of charts I have posted here, which update "live" with a browser refresh:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1

the Score value shown below is derived from the Weighted Scoring System values I have assigned based on viewing the multi-day Direction of A-D lines, McSums' Direction, & daily PMO status vs. its signal line & zero line:

minus 18 value -- for the A-D lines' most recent direction, with special attention to one to four days of transition evidence from a new record high or from a new January low - using my custom weighted score using face time viewing of the 19 charts' prior lows/highs & direction since early November 2016. * Heaviest weighting of the Scoring is assigned to transitions to a new near-term or medium-term direction that is actually underway as of today's close.
(worst score seen in January 2017)
* updated 1/27/2017

minus 14 value -- for the McSums' most recent direction - using my custom weighted score using prior highs/lows & near-term direction and the January direction. Transition periods of one to four days to a new direction impact the assignment of a weighted Score value.
* updated 1/27/2017

minus 12 value -- chart status of Carl Swenlin's setting for the daily PMO - above the signal line matters the most with Score of +1,
below signal line is minus 2 or minus 1 if the distance below is narrowing since the separation away from the signal line has peaked,
and below the zero line is -4
(matches the best score seen in January 2017)
* updated 1/27/2017

* use of PMO explained -
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo

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XLF daily chart --

* updated for the Jan 26, 2017 close:

Important - XLF today achieves a new record price high on lower momentum vs. most of the prior %b peaks at the price highs in this same price zone.

Be objective, and act cautiously about believing in a high probability continuation to the upside UNLESS
the %b's clearly negate the current lower highs pattern over recent weeks by actually closing some future day in close proximity to the %b 1.0 line.

* updated for the Jan 24 close:

XLF $23.38 = key horizontal inflection level as the current Major upside barrier
( within the upper structure of the XLF price action during the 2016 through January 2017 period )

** if the bulls are going to control further advancing, a chart requirement is:

the $23.38 resistance potential price inflection level needs to be made to act as future horizontal support - be vigilant and be objective.
The price action is what matters, not opinion and certainly not fundamentals since the market price action discounts the future far in advance.

* 1/18/2017 from SentimentTrader.com
Here is every time in 20 years that SPX hovered near a high while financials hit a 1-month low. Partly due to tight range. XLF vs. SPX

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2dSbxbVIAIPHZB.jpg:large