Replies to post #19510 on CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[rimshot]

SPY bulls need a hold above 260.16,
OR
bears keep control, and intraday bounces are being sold

see the 60-min 21 sma

==============

on April 2nd, the $OEX index did match its early February 2018 intraday low
... vigilance that it actually holds in the future ...

I give at least 70 to 80% odds that a decline below will eventually occur, but this may not happen in this current week

the top 100 market cap stocks in the S&P 500 index have
been leading the March and early April price decline
for SPY, and I expect that will continue while trade war
talk remains in play ... see the $OEX:$SPX ratio for visibility
that the top 100 stocks are seeing a greater extent of price
damage that the entire 500 stock symbol set contained in $SPX and SPY

[rimshot]

SPY bears await a lasting hold below the 200-day sma by:

$COMPQ
$NDX
$SML

already below the 200 dsma for partial or full days last week or this week are:

$SPX
$OEX
$MID
$RUT
$NYA
$DJIA

* I give up to 95% odds that no future lasting price bottom will have a
V-structure from Monday's intraday low ...
a lasting price low will
be more complex than the late January to early April 2018 chart events

RSP will need a permanent hold back above the 98.40 level,
for me to reconsider this interpretation of the probable future

plot of monthly closes for 6 indices:

* more than 40% chance the $NYA eventually targets
the dashed lime colored line drawn on this chart

[rimshot]

based on this 5-year daily chart, SPY requires
the $SPX:$NYA ratio to reverse direction in the near
future and begin a lasting upward course in order
for SPY to likely remain above its 200-day sma for
a period of time

( with one obvious exception in this 5-year history )

[rimshot]

257.47 = SPY 200dema at this moment
256.59 = SPY 200dsma

it will not have that value on a charting platform
provided by a broker, because it is NOT dividend
adjusted price history provided by brokers' platforms

[rimshot]

sell rallies continues to be the mode ...
the ongoing bearish chart condition for SPY is readily visible in the RSP daily:

RSP = Equally Weighted version of the SPY, which is capitalization weighted and
the top 25 symbols by market cap size account from 33 to 38% of the total SPY price action, depending on month

fyi - nearly all of the top 25 symbol set have been crushed for all of March and early April,
relative to the majority of symbols in the S&P 500 index ... attributed to the trade war talk

sell rallies, until proven otherwise

agreed that there is some uncertainty in the near-term, whether
a bull or bear

* I recommend 21,2 %b vs. it zero line and vs. its .50 line for future vigilance ...
no lasting price advance by SPY is probable until an actual
hold by RSP back above its 21,2 %b .50 line

[rimshot]

SPY 247.70 to 248.80 zone will be Tuesday or Wednesday's closing price

more than 70% odds of this forecast being proven to be the accurate price direction vs. Monday's SPY close of $257.47

I favor Wednesday for the lower price low, but today is possible

simple $NYA daily with 3 different %b settings for future vigilance:

NOTE that nearly every index and index ETF have been sold near their
declining 10-day ema's for numerous consecutive days

important - the SPY monthly RSI-5 is now briefly back below its
50 level again

[rimshot]

$NYA remains below its 200-day ema:

* no daily closes above the declining 10-day ema for
both SPY and $NYA for more than 2 weeks

chart #1 -



chart #2 -

here is how the same chart settings looked for the
May 2010 "flash crash"

* 100-day sma was overhead for several months following the flash crash event

[rimshot]

S&P 1500 bounces are failing to even touch the
important upper boundary of the 599-609 bull/bear divider
price zone

daily -

* bears need price back below the 21,2 lower BB
AND
a lasting hold below 599

[rimshot]

watch the XLK's daily PMO level
vs.
the PMO January 2018 high, now above
current PMO levels

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24298260745&a=581747422