Replies to post #66625 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

SAM - I did not calculate these. A very knowledgeable poster here did and sent me the spreadsheet with the matrix. I am simply taking the data from that matrix and posting it here.

[chas1232123]

Sam81 - I appreciate the data you post, including script numbers and the Wainwright November update material you posted this morning.

I don't have a copy of that recent Wainwright update, but I just ran the numbers for 5.2% placebo rate, and for event 967 to occur in mid-February would imply that RR is about 30%, not 15% as you reported in your post that Wainwright projected. So, I can understand your question about the difference with the numbers Rafunrafun reported and I confirmed. I think I understand the discrepancy.

Wainwright reports 30% RR for two months later, in April 2016. They also say they expect interim data analysis to take about two months. It seems very likely to me that the Wainwright estimates of RR for various placebo rates and interim look times you transcribed for us are referencing the time of the report, not event 967 two months earlier. Since I don't have the update, I'd appreciate it if you'd check the fine print of the W update and let us know whether that's the case.

Thanks for your diligence, it's always good to double check.

[chas1232123]

Sam81 - I looked at previous Wainwright updates, which give the exact same chart of projections as you correctly reported. They differ with my results, and the results posted by rafunrafun and others, by more than I would expect. I checked my work pretty thoroughly before posting it, and believe it is correct, but I will look into this some more.

[sts66]

H.C. Wainwright's analysis is way off, uses a fixed reduction rate of 10% - recall someone posted an exhaustive analysis done by someone else (might have been you?) using various placebo and efficacy rates, and every single of the 30 or so combinations predicted event #967 occurring between Jan 1, 2016, and March 31, 2016?