Monday, December 14, 2015 2:23:11 PM
I don't have a copy of that recent Wainwright update, but I just ran the numbers for 5.2% placebo rate, and for event 967 to occur in mid-February would imply that RR is about 30%, not 15% as you reported in your post that Wainwright projected. So, I can understand your question about the difference with the numbers Rafunrafun reported and I confirmed. I think I understand the discrepancy.
Wainwright reports 30% RR for two months later, in April 2016. They also say they expect interim data analysis to take about two months. It seems very likely to me that the Wainwright estimates of RR for various placebo rates and interim look times you transcribed for us are referencing the time of the report, not event 967 two months earlier. Since I don't have the update, I'd appreciate it if you'd check the fine print of the W update and let us know whether that's the case.
Thanks for your diligence, it's always good to double check.
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