Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

Projected Timeline for Interim Analysis

Raf,
Can you please explain the numbers you got?


As per H.C. Wainwright Update (Nov-2015) they mentioned a timeline projection which goes as follows;

4.68% Annual Placebo Rate: 10% Reduction, 967th event in Apr-16 / 15% May-16 / 20% Jun-16 / 53% Nov-16

5.20% Annual Placebo Rate: 10% Reduction, 967th event in Jan-16 / 15% in Feb-16 / 20% in Mar-16 / 30% Apr-16 / 53% Aug-16

5.72% Annual Placebo Rate: 10% Reduction, 967th event in Dec-15 / 15% in Jan-16 / 20% in Feb-16 / 30% Mar-16 / 53% Jun-16


So taking the worst case of annual placebo rate of 4.68% as per HCW, we can assume that once May-16 passes, V most probably will be stopped at Interim

Considering other placebo rate scenarios, it is safe to assume once Feb-2016 passes, also most probably V would be stopped due to good results