Replies to post #239549 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Bluefang]

TKC--at least you labeled your hopes correctly. Maybe you are right. Tomorrow we will find out and I suspect you and all the other Wave hopefuls are going to be disappointed again.

If there were new sales to replace the Dell losses, wouldn't someone at Wave hint at that? Solms is kept up to date, I'm sure, on shareholder discontent and it is growing pretty fast. If Solms knew there was reason for hope, I believe he would not allow shareholders to feel as disappointed as they now do, without providing at least a hint that relief is on the way.

But, let's wait until tomorrow to continue the conversation. I suspect the reaction to the numbers is going to be in the category of, "Well, it could have been a lot worse." My question is, when is it going to get better?

How long does one hold the torch for a long-shot dream, when every single quarter there is disappointment and no basis whatsoever for hope?

Feel free to cling to the thin wisps of evaporating hopes, but for me, I prefer reality and hard numbers, not some pie-in-the-sky, one in a billion possibility if all the planets, stars, comets and moons in the universe align.

What is so hard about accepting there have been no significant sales in more than a year? If Wave's product had the wow factor you think it does, wouldn't we have seen deals by now? I doubt it is because of lack of trying. I think Solms is out there pushing his people hard, but how do you sell a product that has been almost universally shunned after a hundred or more trials and demos?

Look at the list of Wave partners--impressive isn't it? Now look at revenue from all those impressive partners over a long period of time. Not impressive at all, is it? We all thought it was bad mgt with SKS, coupled with his arrogant, know-it-all attitude--but, Solms hasn't been able to sell much either--even with capable people on it.

Doesn't that tell you something?

Wave is a dream and will remain so, until significant and sustained sales prove it is solid and more than just vapor. IMO, we are a long, long ways from that.

Best--Blue

[dig space]

tkc, that fits the bill for hopeful, and more or less how I see it,
that is that Q2 non-Dell Embassy sales fell, so a place for "improvement" would be recovery of that loss. Dell has been going away so far at a 500k/Q rate. I have never thought it made sense for Dell revs to fall in a linear fashion, expected more of a cliff, so maybe Q3 provides that cliff - or not. So maybe $1m is a fair guess, but perhaps best viewed as a top-end guess with effectively nil on the table as a possibility (Dell falling below 10% reporting putting an higher floor on Dell accounting). Maybe some initial VSC sales here or there, perhaps some improved sales in the SED emphasis area ....

Dell: 0-$1m
SFND: $1.0-1.5m
non-Dell Embassy: $1.5-2.5m
services: 0-$0.5m

total: $2.5 to $5.5 .... that's a revs calc.

Billings aren't broken down much in the report, I don't know what component of Dell is e.g. realizing defrevs but maybe that is addressed in the text and I just don't bother to read carefully enough. You are indicating non-Dell billings, so presumably it is in there, or you are assuming Dells revs are from current billings, I don't know which.

Basically, were I to be hopeful I would pull for billings of $5m and leave it at that, but I expect more like $4m in new billings.