Atlantic Power & Infrastructure Corp. (AWSL)

[warburg]

All good points, and thank you for joining here just to make that post.

Firstly, no one has been trying to evaluate this stock based on $200mil ...in GROSS revenues.
Of course there are costs.

You don't think the "channel partners" and building owners don't take a healthy cut? - without having to share in any of the costs mind you.

According to the prevailing rate of the sector, building owners were being offered starting at around .70 cents a watt. Therefore landlords were being offered up front payments of $175k for the use of their rooftops for a 250ke system. This covered the entire 20 years.
Or they could amortize this payment, breaking it into annual payments, which works out to approx. $350k over the life of the FIT. (not too bad considering the entire system generates upward of $6 mil)

Whats the going rate for Real Estate agents these days ? Either add that to the above .70 cents per watt, or deduct it, based on whoever is responsible to pay that (buyer or seller).

without having to share in any of the costs mind you.

The above statement is entirely inacurrate "if" the arrangement with the landlord is a joint venture.If it is, they split the costs based on the JV percentage.

This is all explained here: http://www.monstercommercial.com/your-commercial-rooftop-could-be-a-source-of-income-part-one/
(read all 3 parts if necessary)

many folks out there are finding that their "contracts" become dead in the water due to the absolutely horrible state of Ontario's grid not actually being able to accommodate RE projects.

Yes, this is true, but it only effects certain older areas of the grid. Hamilton, niagara, Ottawa, etc.
These are not areas that AWSL focused on. This is why the applications were able to move into the final cue. Apps in bad areas, get dropped.
All of AWSL's final cue applications are Capacity Allocated Exempt. This means they are smaller than 500kw, and dont have as big of an impact on the grid due to non capacity issues. This is why AWSL focused on these sizes since inception. They forecasted this could happen.
Btw, the grid issues in the above areas were also speculated by many savvy developers.( If you weren't one of them, too bad.)

The REAL number to focus on is the measly 6MW of applications AWSL managed to get in over the last 1.5 years.

Pls read the press releases, or refer to the video. They did not "only get 6 mw submitted in the last 1.5 years, as you want us to believe.

The 6 mw were all submitted last year between June and Dec 7. (thats approx 6 months, not 1.5 years) And we don't know if thats all of them that were submitted at that time.
We also know that there were several submitted in the names of clients who will own the systems. In these cases, AWSL will build them and not own the projects. These are separate, and discsussed briefly in PR updates.

They have likely submitted many many many more since Dec 7, 2010... Read the press releases, watch the video. We know that they are working on over 150 projects in total. But this balance are not in the final cue at the OPA because they were not submitted between June and Dec of last year. The OPA's press release, states "All applications submitted last year between June and Dec 7 will be in the next round of approvals. this is why AWSL is only talking about these initial 26 now.

This initial 6 mw represent AWSL's first revenues, therefore it is a milestone. Even over 20 years, the $200 mil is $10 mil per year GROSS. But its reocurring for 20 years - Despite what you say, thats not bad for a start up after only 2 years in business.

Combined with the fact that some of these projects won't get built

Wont get built, why ??? They have taken all the necessary steps to make sure they will get built. they aren't like most companies. They do their engineering reports prior to applying to fit, and secured funding in the early stages.

http://www.solarfeeds.com/thesolargazetteorg/14095-getting-your-solar-project-ducks-in-a-row--an-ontario-financiers-perspective

& all the misappropriation of wealth that will be going to insiders (that is PLAINLY their historical MO)

Misappropriation of wealth ???? When, where ??? You've been reading too much nonsense writte by short sellers, who want shareholders to sell. I've never seen anything of substance suggesting this. Pls elaborate. you must have something to back this up, since you used the word "plainly" (A word of advice, Pls be careful with words like these, even when not using your real name. They can catch up to you.)

Before you go back to C&W "leases" consider the fact that Ontario will likely kill the FIT program in October before anyone in the OPA looks at them (ie they are not even applications at this stage which would take another "any day any day any day" year to process).

Kill the fit ? Even if it changes after Oct, the contracts will be honoured, This isnt a third world country , or Venezueala.
You obviously didn't read today paper. The conservative don't want to KILL the FIT program, like you stated, The big question is, besides the initial 26, how many are applied for ? They have another 4 months to move their derrieres, to get as many apps in as possible.

Shall I guess 100 in total have been or will be submitted by then ??? (thats anohter 74 on top of the initial 26, for those who cant count. Multiply that by $6 mil, to $12 mil, and you're up towards a Billion dollars in reveneues over the next 20 years. Based on those projections, as hard as it may be for you to believe, you bet your azz this could be a $5.00 - $10.00 and up stock. maybe even more if they kept going. These are still early days, and you talk like this is it. There is a a lot of other opportunity in Ontario, on its way with the Conservatives.

Todays paper:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/Hudak+urged+support+green+energy/4787642/story.html

You suggest that there is hardly any money in the FIT program, but then its suggested its going to be killed because it is paying out too much money. --- I'm confused.

Again, the $200 mil in gross revenues is only the beginning. The measly" 26 contracts aren't the only applications submitted and they wont be the last.

They are also i advanced discussions re acquiring other rooftop solar projects, ground mount and wind projects. Watch the video press release. They are well funded.

As for the Hybridyne law suit, the courts of West Virginia already ruled in favour of the company when they cancelled TC's shares. That says it all. Its likely if Cleland did end up trying to push it further, it would get quashed, and he could maybe even get charged for claiming he held the patent when he clearly did not.( Kind of hard to argue that.). His real issues are not with AWSL, its with himself. (does anyone know if AWSL is counter suing Cleland ? : )

Thanks for your post. It gave me a chance to clear up some "conspiracy theories"