Replies to post #8383 on Atlantic Power & Infrastructure Corp. (AWSL)

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The above statement is entirely inacurrate "if" the arrangement with the landlord is a joint venture.If it is, they split the costs based on the JV percentage.

Okaaay, in that case AWSL also gets proportionally less of the profit. I was trying to give the most optimistic scenario but thank you for pointing out that AWSL might only be worth 2.5 cents per share instead of the 5 cents per share I presented.

Yes, this is true, but it only effects certain older areas of the grid. Hamilton, niagara, Ottawa, etc.
These are not areas that AWSL focused on. This is why the applications were able to move into the final cue. Apps in bad areas, get dropped.

Actually bad apps (due to grid issues) submitted before December 8 2010 do not get dropped - they automatically get awarded a contract! And I hate to burst your bubble but almost ALL areas of the grid were severely constrained as early as the issuance of the launch period contracts, so unless you had your apps in then you are generally SOL. The results of the TAT/DAT bore this out 100% - the industry expected gigawatts of contract awards but only 872MW actually made it. Certainly based on the new December 8 rule we are not going to see many contract awards going forward. Additionally, ALL areas of the grid are old and decrepit across North America and Ontario is no exception.

All of AWSL's final cue applications are Capacity Allocated Exempt. This means they are smaller than 500kw, and dont have as big of an impact on the grid due to non capacity issues.

Try again, awhile ago the industry saw 10kW microFIT systems built (with regular hard-working people investing tens of thousands of dollars into them) but were then denied their connection due to these constraints (microFIT systems are different in that you build first, then get the "final" contract which allows you to actually get paid).

They did not "only get 6 mw submitted in the last 1.5 years, as you want us to believe.

The 6 mw were all submitted last year between June and Dec 7. (thats approx 6 months, not 1.5 years)

So what were they doing until June? Certainly we know that no applications were made/contracts issued before then. Shareholders pay management to create value, not sit around watching market opportunities disappear.

And we don't know if thats all of them that were submitted at that time.

Pu-leeze, if not, why wasn't this announced in the Youtube video? From a company that issues a press release for every little fart they make you would think that they would want the investment community and their own shareholders to know that they are delivering on their promises. This video was just such an opportunity and all we saw was a measly 6MW.

They have likely submitted many many many more since Dec 7, 2010... Read the press releases, watch the video. We know that they are working on over 150 projects in total.

Do you know this for a fact? Have any special information you would like to share? I read the press releases, watched the video and note that there have been several people on this board astute enough to read between the lines: these 150 projects are leases, not contracts and as such, they are completely worthless right now. If a contract ever gets attached to these "applications" as you say, then it will certainly justify a lift in the share price based on this new information. But until that day, AWSL gets no credit for these "projects". Again, in 1.5 years they only managed to turn out 26.

This initial 6 mw represent AWSL's first revenues, therefore it is a milestone. Even over 20 years, the $200 mil is $10 mil per year GROSS. But its reocurring for 20 years - Despite what you say, thats not bad for a start up after only 2 years in business.

Fair enough. But after you figure what their "take" from this will be, show me how it gets anywhere close to a $50M market cap.

Wont get built, why ??? They have taken all the necessary steps to make sure they will get built. they aren't like most companies. They do their engineering reports prior to applying to fit, and secured funding in the early stages.

The grid, the grid, the grid. These were pre-Dec 8 CAE applications and the grid is maxed out across the province.

You suggest that there is hardly any money in the FIT program, but then its suggested its going to be killed because it is paying out too much money. --- I'm confused.

I never suggested there was hardly any money on the table - quite the contrary and, based on a combination of your and my numbers, a 36% return ($1.40/W investment with $0.50 profit) isn't too shabby at all for AWSL. The FIT program was originally designed for these projects to generate a rate of return of 10%. However, the OPA could not reasonably foresee the huge drop in the prices of panels which, as you can see, stretched this profitability waay out.