Putting aside all the conspiracy theories regarding this company and its management team, I am shocked that everyone is still bickering now that we have an actual data point that can be used to value this company.
And to this end, touting $200M in potential revenue (over 20 years BTW) to justify owning this stock is a complete obfuscation of the drivers of valuation. Firstly: what are the costs of generating this revenue? Who does it have to be shared with? You don't think the "channel partners" and building owners don't take a healthy cut? - without having to share in any of the costs mind you.
Additionally, holding a FIT contract isn't all that it's cracked up to be. The truth is that these are CONDITIONAL contracts and many, many, many folks out there are finding that their "contracts" become dead in the water due to the absolutely horrible state of Ontario's grid not actually being able to accommodate RE projects.
The REAL number to focus on is the measly 6MW of applications AWSL managed to get in over the last 1.5 years. If we take a reasonable back of the envelope number that $0.50/W goes to the developer, than this name is only worth $3M. Combined with the fact that some of these projects won't get built & all the misappropriation of wealth that will be going to insiders (that is PLAINLY their historical MO) and you can see that AWSL is only worth ~$0.05 per share. Oh yeah, and what happens if Hybridyne wins its lawsuit? Can you say insolvency-in-a-heartbeat?
Before you go back to C&W "leases" consider the fact that Ontario will likely kill the FIT program in October before anyone in the OPA looks at them (ie they are not even applications at this stage which would take another "any day any day any day" year to process).
And we're supposed to believe that this thing is a billion dollar company going to $5.00-$10.00 a share? What a joke...
