We are at T-58 today. In saying that I'm saying I expect approval at any of the next 58 days. All 58 days takes us to the full 150 days the UK plans to act within, but in the UK history they've had approvals within the last 60 of the 150 day time, so it can happen any day.
Druggie made the point that it will take 100 to 500 million share trading days to force the shorts to act, I don't know that it will take that much, but I'd like to see what volume people think will occur on the day we get word of the approval. I'll hazard a guess that it will come before the open, and trading may be halted for awhile based on an imbalance in orders. I believe that if the approval is widely publicized hundreds of millions of shares will trade that day, and for a few days succeeding it. In many cases, the same shares will trade multiple times in one day as day traders buy and sell as the price rises. We have over a billion shares outstanding, it's not impossible to have a multi-billion trading day while virtually all of us are holding and enjoying the ride, with computerized tradings some programs buy and sell in less than a second as I understand it, certainly in less than a minute. This occurs because computers have been programmed to take profits that often are just a small fraction of a penny, they can do that hundreds, or thousands or more times in one business day if the share price is moving in a way that meets their trading program. Personally I don't like it, but when you trade to four decimal places and have programs that profit on changes in the third or fourth decimal place you get such trading.
As for a retailer buying now, if they know for certain that tomorrow's not the day the approval will be announced, fine, wait another day. If however you don't know that an approval will come tomorrow, then you need to ask yourself is it worth the cheaper price I might be able to get to be out when it is announced. I believe that unless we get something that sends us up dramatically in anticipation of the approval, if it's truly a surprise, after a halt the shares will open at double to quadruple or more over current prices. It would not surprise me to close that day over $5 if media coverage of the approval is strong. If such strength fails to materialize, then somewhere around $2 is probable.
If you're a potential buyer, the question in my mind is, do you want to assure being in at the time approval is announced, if so, don't wait. On the other hand if you want to buy for perhaps a nickel less by T-20, or 10, or 5, take your chances. I believe the UK already likes our vaccine, they've seen it used often in compassionate use, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had approval by T-30, roughly 4 weeks from today. We're roughly 8 weeks from day 150, I'd guess that the chance of approval goes up by about 10% for each week. That's 80%, the 20% remaining represent the possibility of delay beyond the 150 days. As always, JMHO.
Gary
