:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | June 23, 2018
Analysis for the Week of June 25, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 22, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 164590 so far is trading down about 4.00% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jun. 21, 2018. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 164860 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 162040. This provides a 1.71% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 160700 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 168950 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 162400.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 164600. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
This market is neutral for now on all our weekly indicators. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 173500, which was created during the week of June 11th. The last weekly level low was 160700, which formed during the week of April 30th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 162800 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 8 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161500 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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