NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | June 16, 2018
Analysis for the Week of June 18, 2018
ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 15, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 164800 so far is trading down about 3.87% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Jun. 14, 2018. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 162040. This provides a 3.66% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 160700 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 168950 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 165300. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading up for the past 6 weeks from the low of the week of April 30th, which has been a move of.0770 percent.
For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 6 weeks. The last weekly level low was 160700, which formed during the week of April 30th, and only a break of 163700 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 173600, which was created during the week of April 16th. However, we still remain below key resistance 168100 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 8 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161500 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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