News 
Market Data 
Discover
Replies to post #1594 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
06/30/18 9:05 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 29, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 161980 so far is trading down about 5.52% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jun. 28, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite weak. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 161940. This provides a 3.72% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
From a broad long-term perspective, the last important event was a high established during 2016, which was a rally from the low made back in 2015 amounting to a one year Knee Jerk Reaction. Last year produced an inside trading year. So far this year, we have penetrated last year's low and are currently trading positive above where we opened this year. However, we need to penetrade the last low of on an annual closing basis to signal a further decline.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 156350. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 160700 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established in 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 161400.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0809% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 173500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173600 made back during the week of April 16th. That rally amounted to onlysix weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of April 30th but has closed back above it and is holding for now. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 173500, which was created during the week of June 11th. The last weekly level low was 160700, which formed during the week of April 30th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 162800 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 8 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161500 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
