:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures :::: By Marty Armstrong | June 17, 2017
Analysis for the Week of June 19, 2017
We should see a trend change come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 121430 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 127680 to 121430. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Jun. 16, 2017, the market is immediately in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 125650 and is trading up about 9.09% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jun. 15, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 5th at 129880, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of June 12th, which has been a move of 2.45% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 5 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 112430 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 135770 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Broadly, my expanded view anticipation recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Eyeing the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of June 5th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 6/12 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 weeks. The last weekly level low was 112430, which formed during the week of December 12th, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 129880, which was created during the week of June 5th. However, we still remain below key resistance 126500 on a closing basis. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 129740, which was created during April. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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