:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures :::: By Marty Armstrong | June 10, 2017
Analysis for the Week of June 12, 2017
We should see a trend change come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 121430 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 127680 to 121430. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Jun. 9, 2017, the market is immediately in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level warning caution should be taken especially since it's trading below the December 2016 high. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 127140 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 126670 following the high established Tue. Jun. 6, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 5th at 129880, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 6.95% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 5th has exceeded the previous high of 129740 made back during the week of April 17th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 112430 made the week of December 12th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 5 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 112430 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 135770 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term calculation recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
On the subject of the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of May 29th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 6/5 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 weeks. The last weekly level low was 112430, which formed during the week of December 12th, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 129880, which was created during the week of June 5th. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 129740, which was created during April. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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