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GOM spill – from the long piece on the news I heard this a.m., the recently calculated rate of 70k barrels per day has an error margin of +/- 20%, but two other scientists using different methodologies came up with roughly the same amounts. Bottom line is that the flow rate could easily be a factor of 5 to 10 times greater than the 5k barrels per day stated. The scientists also said that if BP released more of their information, they could refine their calculations. Apparently BP is relying on Coast Guard and NOAA estimates of oil found on the sea surface for their estimates of the 5k barrels per day. BP also says that while the riser is some 20 inches, the actual pipe inside with oil is only 9 inches. The new estimates also mentioned that the mixture appears from the video to be a mixture of gas and oil, the actual video started with an apparent gas bubble coming out, but by the end of the video appeared to be mostly oil, so that complicates the calcs, but that the amounts are still magnitudes greater than the first given estimates. Very scary indeed.
RKT989's post sums up quite nicely what I think as well. I do not understand management's communications or their intentions around the same, but when I take into consideration all that has happened and been said, I just can't believe there isn't oil there, at least at some commercial level if not more. I read this board every day, but don't have the time or the patience or industry knowledge to read through and into everything that is published. I thank those of you who do, I learn from you.
So I'm holding, and will buy more as I can, particularly when the prices are down so low. I may be running more on intuition than I should, but so be it. Not betting my nest egg or any critical funds on this, so I guess I can look at it as my gambling money. Who knows when it will pan out but I think it will eventually and I am hopeful it will do so in a very nice way.
Just my two cents if anyone's interested :)
FN
Interesting replies, thanks. The conflicting information is mind boggling to me, but I'm not going anywhere either. If I could add more I would. I was forced to sell some over the winter to meet financial obligations, and that was painful at the time, but I locked in some profits and the shares I have now are essentially free, so that helps. Smallish numbers, granted.
Quite a ride.
For those of you still holding, why are you holding? What do you believe? This whole thing is clear is mud at this point.
LOL.
Thanks, I needed that.
What you say makes sense and I agree with you, with the addition that it wasn't just PN who didn't realize the extent of further analysis, but also the JDA/Mark's sources. I believe PN, Mark and his sources were saying what they knew to be true at the time. Mark may be overconfident in saying "news soon", as he doesn't control the news or the variables behind it, no need to shoot the messenger though.
Couldn't agree more about not being happy with the delay, but do intuitively feel the ultimate outcome will be good, if not phenomenal. I can always use more time to buy...
FN
I still wonder why earlier this year Peter N and others were all saying announcements/news soon, and now it feels like we are a ways away (months?) from knowing and announcing results. I can accept it takes time for this as a complicated analysis, and Midtier's read on they really don't know is a genuine and realistic assessment, just wonder about the disconnect. What changed? Odd.
May 22, 2010 4:37 p.m.
In my past I have had a Fiero and two Pintos (not in that order). I'm pretty sure I won't be spending my profits there again, just my preference of course, to each his own.
With some of the profits I am looking forward to finding the next investment, and very interested to see how this group evolves and moves on. It has been a great learning experience and lots of fun, even if it is at times (like these days) a frustrating one. I enjoy this board and like that the moderators keep it clean and on track, because if they didn't (a la RB) I wouldn't stick around, and there's a lot of good info here. It's a good group overall, take what you want and leave the rest as they say.
That makes a lot of sense to me. I think that Peter N, Dan, Mark's sources, all were accurate at the time in saying announcements were imminent. Too many were saying the same thing at the same time IMO for it to be bs. It makes sense that something happened to shake up the thinking or decision process, making it "dynamic". I guess what's there is inextricably tied into who will do what and how, it's not just the what's there that we're waiting on. Theoretically though, analyses and projections could go on forever, couldn't they? Not that I think they will, just theoretically. I think we'll have news before 6 months, and I sure hope it's before the shareholder meeting.
I don't understand the delay in announcing results, after what not only the JDA but Ntephe and Keeney have said about them being out soon, which the way it was phrased means by now to me. I just can't see how they could be off on the timing of what it takes to interpret and release the results, so that says to me there's more to the story than just results, that is holding up any announcement. Is it the complexity of a consortium structure or buy in/out (of whoever, not just ERHC) that is complicating matters? If so, why must that be linked to announcement of results, what is so intertwined? What other reason could there be for continued delays around a technical analysis? Seems to me the closer you are to finishing technical analysis the more accurately you can predict when you will actually be done. Obvious questions perhaps, but despite all the pontificating on this board which is thoughtful and clever and interesting to read, I just don't get what is taking so long to announce what's been found.
My thoughts on this rainy day, I'm frustrated as many are. I don't post much as I have neither the time nor thick enough skin for the the back and forth :)
FN
I hope it's the numbers that are adding up, to some really big ones :)
I agree. Add to your list: Offor stepping down from the BOD.
OT: This is funny, I just received this email:
Titled: CHEVRON/TEXACO OFFICIAL PRIZE
You have been selected in the on-going Chevron/Texaco Award held this March 2010.Contact barr.[deleted]@yahoo.com.hk for claims.
It goes on to describe some confidentiality and security things in Spanish.
Ironic isn't it?
Thanks, Tamtam, for pointing me to the comments. I either missed this or forgot, either is not surprising to me as I juggle the work/home front.
Interesting to me, as I work on corporate structure issues though in a field far removed from this one. It appears per others comments that this is very typical in the oil industry. Still, very convenient for peeling off and selling pieces.
Thanks for your efforts.
FN
Thanks for posting this, though I saw it roughly described in writing, I missed this graphic.
So (anyone), how does this work? If the Bl 4 company is sold, 97.5% of the proceeds go to the Cayman company, which is tax free (though may be taxed if the funds are then repatriated to the US company, not sure)? The Cayman company could then purchase any new assets with the proceeds, still protected from tax.
Doesn't the mere setting up of this structure, all carved out as such, beg the idea that the intent was to sell part of all of the assets all along? Perhaps this is obvious or has been discussed before, and I missed the posts. Just thinking.
Why yes I am still out here, happily watching and reading, and looking under the sofa cushions for anything extra to plow into this thing. Thanks for asking :)
I'm in. If the price goes down, it's not because I'm not doing my part :)
Just the post this board needs, but only some will hear it.
FN
I like that thinking.
A very clear and rational post, I fully agree. Glad to see those posting agreement. Human nature, pent up excitement from long waits, and emotions eminating from potential big rewards may get the better of many, so will the sentiment stick? I've bookmarked your post as a marker of rationality in the event of a board storm to the contrary :)
Happy days all! It's a fun ride!
That is VERY funny :)
Two days before mine, I'll take it too :)
So what was that paint job specifically, for those of us that don't have real time? The suspense is killing me.
Cheers :)
Thanks, spp119, agreed.
FN
Perhaps I'm reading the original email wrong, but I can't interpret it as to whether it's a statement of fact or thinking out loud. May be that I'm not as astute as others in reading between the lines.
I'm not knocking the contributions and dd provided, nor am I saying anyone should compromise their sources in any way. I found the message cryptic and I'm very aware of rumors that may spring up in the coming weeks and want to understand what I'm reading. Not trying to step on any toes, really. This is a good time for shareholders here and my level of anticipation for what's to come is high.
FN
This is the type of thing that I'm wary of in the coming weeks - "hint" type information, or info that "could be" coming from or relevant to our interests, but no source, citation or link is provided. It could be anything, but infers itself to be linked to our drilling.
Please, cite a source, and if it's confidential, say that and at least give some indication of how it might be relied upon. If it's only thinking out loud, say that.
Let's keep the info running through this board meaningful and transparent.
Thanks.
That's just it - I've purchased as I've had funds available over the last three years. Had it not been for the dips and the long time getting to drilling, I'd have far fewer shares. Buying more at a low sp does take a bit of the sting out of the moment as well.
Now we need it to come to fruition to make it all worth it. Good luck to us all, and soon I hope!
FN
I like this thinking!
Thanks to all those who posted updates on the conference call discussion. While I can't rearrange my workday to listen to it, I could check in on the board, and it was great to see what was being discussed.
FN
Many of us around here are looking forward to that day.
It is a civic holiday in Canada today; don't know about the markets but suspect they're closed.
Now you've got a following on this!
FN
what is TDC? thks
Exactly what I am wondering and thinking.
Agreed - ERHC is (IMO) better odds than a lottery ticket but still carries high risk (though I like others feel that risk consistently ratcheting down). I kind of like that location because it's not my "nest egg" that's sitting there, it's my "gambling" money!
If we don't, I'm going to start to think this all one big hallucination. Am I the only one?
Reminds me of the Magic 8 Ball...
Frankly, I couldn't agree more with the last line of this post:
"Folks... time to suck it up and muscle through the last phase of this long journey. If you believe we have lots of oil, sit back relax and enjoy the show. If you don't, then I'm not sure what the hell you've been doing here all this time....lol."
I think the days, weeks or months, whatever it turns out to be, will be tortuous insofar as testing patience. I'm going to try to treat it like a coaster ride, since I think in the end it will be great but I have no idea what will happen along the way. Not to say there won't be days where I'll be just wishing it would be done already.
I think there has to be a lot more to this story already planned out or set in motion, and what emerged last week is only the tip of the iceberg. I'd drive myself crazy trying to over analyze it, and as it is am only scanning the posts since no one really knows or can say if they do know.
So, isn't it fun knowing there's a possibility that news could break any minute? Yes, that's what keeps me glued to this board.
FN
That's good fun, keep it going! May you have the best birthday $present$ ever.
FN