gedden, cloner, kujo og andre

kan i ikke maile til ernst

vi har faktisk startet et nyt sted at skrive

så kan i få adressen af ernst

jeg gider ikke den personfnidder mere her på ihup og stopper derfor

jeg kan ikke forstå at man kan være så dumme svin som

hanne, greengrass, agenten, frege, hap og en del andre

det bliver uden mig

nu stopper du altså - dit dumme svin

og dine medskribenter på diverse sider

jeg er ikke interesseret i at diskutere og bruge min kostbare tid og denne side på at diskutere med idioter som dig

selvfølgelig kan man sammenligne de fattige landes udvikling i asien med udviklingen i tyskland og italien efter 1946, det er jo noget vrøvl du skriver, at de kendte spillereglerne, det gør kina også

og at sydkorea, som jeg selvfølgelig referede til ikke skulle have været fattige i 1985 må være fordi du ikke har været derude og undersøgt det ved selvsyn

og spar mig dine kommentarer om min person

det er dig og din mand greengrass, der er syge i hovedet sammen med diverse tidligere skribenter på spekulant incl. frege og agenten, og hap mm var deciderede inkompetente personer, de bare var ude på ballade i stedet for saglig snak om konjunktur og aktier, altså en samling dumme svin

se og pis af med dig inden vi gør alvor af at lukke denne side og finde en ny med hemmelig adresse

i er kun ude på at lave ballade og lave personfnidder

og jeg fatter ikke at agenten gjorde det samme, han er da også sindssyg

jeg handler dem bl.a. gennem danske bank

jeg vil lige repetere mine gamle prognoser om den langsigtede udvikling

jeg forudså klart opsvinget i 2003 og at det ville være begyndelsen til et længevarende globalt boom og aktiebullmarked

der ville føre til stigende råvarepriser og inflation, rentestigninger mm

jeg forudså også også at hvis ikke man satte renten op hurtigt i usa og andre steder i 2004-05 ville man ikke kunne forhindre en global overophedning

i den sammenhæng har jeg utallige gange forudset et kollaps i ejendomspriserne i 2007

jeg har forudset rentestigninger, der ikke er steget helt så meget som jeg forudså, men den korte rente er steget en del mange steder, også i usa indtil den så blev sat ned indenfor det sidste års tid pga den eskalerende ejendomskrise

og stigningerne i renterne fortsætter jo som jeg havde forudset, og især er renterne på diverse andre lån end bare den korte rente eller statsobligationerne steget en hel del og vil sikkert fortsætte med at stige

så de stigende renter mange steder i verden svarer helt til mine prognoser

og desværre er det også derfra risikoen ved at have aktier kommer fra

og jeg forudså jo også et stort fald i aktierne i 2006-08

Oil's recent slide and the slackening demand that an economic slowdown's expected to bring have stimulated hopes that crude could soon safely stabilize below the $100 range.

But beneath seesawing supply and demand lies the deeper question of just how much oil the planet has in the first place — and how much it will have in the future.

The answer to that question supports — or undermines — the theory that we are in the midst of an ever-tightening supply that will lock prices into a permanent, rising arc. That, in nutshell, is what's meant by the term "peak oil".



It’s an issue that matters, especially to major energy players who are in a race to disprove the theory and trying to bring on-stream more oil fields than are currently being depleted.

John Hofmeister, president of Royal Dutch Shell's US operations, shared his thoughts on the supply issue on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Thursday. He took aim at the peak oil theory as popularized by Matthew Simmons, the author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy." (See the Hofmeister interview at left.)

“The peak oil theory has really swamped the world — God bless Matt Simmons,” Hofmeister told CNBC.

Simmons is mistaken, said Hofmeister, because he is overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer.

Although Saudi Arabia is a dominant player, the Shell executive said focusing solely on Saudi Arabia leaves out the all other places around the globe where Big Oil — ExxonMobil EXXON MOBIL CORPXOM
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[BP 64.53 -0.37 (-0.57%) ] and the like — and national oil companies are busy exploring for untapped oil reservoirs.

Those reservoirs could include the vast — but currently restricted — reserves of the US Outer Continental Shelf, which holds an estimated 100 billion barrels of oil and natural gas. Tapping into such a large supply would slash the $500 billion US sends overseas for each year for oil imports.

As things stands, however, only 15 percent of those reserves are currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.


Mike Eliason
Matt Simmons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Simmons is also off the mark, Hofmeister contends, because he excludes unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell is already active.

The Canadian oil sands — a natural combination of sand, water and oil found largely in Alberta — is believed to contain 1 trillion barrels of oil. Another 1 trillion barrels are also trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.

Given all that, we asked Simmons, who is chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a specialized energy investment-banking firm based in Houston, to respond to Hofmeister's comments and explain how his peak oil scenario can be avoided.

CNBC: What's your response to critics like Hofmeister?

Simmons: There is a kind of schizophrenia within the likes of Shell where the chairman basically says, "We think by 2012 global demand will exceed conventional supply" and yet Hofmeister basically says the idea that we are ever going to have peak oil is ridiculous.

CNBC: But he's suggesting you are leaving out unconventional sources of energy in your calculations.

Simmons: They make the distinction [between conventional and unconventional], but they don’t seem to make the connection about the vast difference of flow. They are so hung up on the total estimated volume. Once they start in a project they say, "Well, the reserves last forever so we can book a million barrels of reserves."

The energy that is consumed to get oil out of the oil sands of Canada — in massive amounts of potable water and natural gas — is so vast you are really turning gold into lead. What you get out is a very low quality amount of oil that has to be upgraded and diluted with high quality oil to get synthetic crude. What I can’t figure out is why the executives of these oil companies don’t understand that.

CNBC: And what about the reserves on the Outer Continental Shelf?

Simmons: That’s sort of irrelevant because we have such an unbelievable shortage of deep-water rigs. We are totally out of deep-water drilling rigs. There are about 100 that are struggling to get built. Four will ready by the end of next year.

And none of that deep-water stuff they are talking about has been properly tested to know if it is even commercial. It’s in such remote areas that we just don’t have the tool kit to realistically bring it on stream before maybe ten years from now — maybe 6-7 years from now.


RELATED LINKS
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CNBC: What about other major finds such as the major off-shore discovery Brazil has made that is estimated could be the third largest oil field in the world?

Simmons: There have only been five wildcat wells drilled there. That’s like me saying I have drilled a well in Kansas, and another in Colorado and in New Mexico and in the panhandle of Texas and if they are all part of one giant oilfield, it is the biggest oil field ever in the Western Hemisphere. That’s an enormous "if."

You can claim that, but the proof of that would only be after you drill about 100 wells and flow test them all. And what we know is that 99 percent of those types of reservoirs never connect.

CNBC: You still think there are production difficulties in Saudi Arabia, but what do you expect will be the impact on production worldwide?

Simmons: Yes, and it’s why we have such a hard time growing production any more, and unfortunately demand doesn’t understand that. We are basically having to run faster and faster to stay in place as too many areas go into steady and steep decline.

You look at the North Sea … the last 7-8 years, Norway and the UK have been declining a rate of about 17-18 percent per year. And once you get a field down to its last 10 percent, then it levels out and goes into a long steady state of gentle decline — that is the state of Prudhoe Bay today.

CNBC: So, what is your prognosis for prices?

Simmons: I think prices have to go way higher. The sooner people get used to the fact that we are still living in a fool’s paradise, the better ... you just can not argue that $100 a barrel is expensive when you realize it is 15 cents a cup — do you know anything other than crude oil that sells for 15 cents a cup? I know wine doesn’t, bottled water doesn’t.

kan du ikke se at forsvinde, mister greengrass

ellers lukker vi siden her

og skriver et andet sted

banker i usa - og så roskilde bank, får bank

der findes mange forskellige slags banker og financielle selskaber, de kan være svære at hitte rede i

kvaliteten i deres lån er nok på niveau med boligerne og bilerne i kina, men man kan ikke se dem, når man går på gaden og ej heller husenes værdi, det står ikke på gadedøren

Government shuts down mortgage lender IndyMac
Saturday July 12, 1:27 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations


LOS ANGELES (AP) -- IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
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The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.

The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.

IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.

Other bank services, such as online banking and phone banking were scheduled to be made available on Monday.

"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.

The lender's failure came the same day that financial markets plunged when investors tried to gauge whether the government would have to save mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Shares of Fannie and Freddie dropped to 17-year lows before the stocks recovered somewhat. Wall Street is growing more convinced that the government will have to bail out the country's biggest mortgage financiers, whose failure could deal a tremendous blow to the already staggering economy.

The FDIC estimated that its takeover of IndyMac would cost between $4 billion and $8 billion.

IndyMac's collapse is second only to that of Continental Illinois National Bank, which had nearly $40 billion in assets when it failed in 1984, according to the FDIC.

News of the takeover distressed Alan Sands, who showed up at the company's headquarters in Pasadena, Calif., to find out when he could withdraw his funds.

"Hopefully the FDIC insurance will take care of it," said Sands, of El Monte, Calif. "I'm also kind of kicking myself for not taking care of this sooner, sooner as in the last couple of days."

A couple of dozen customers could be seen outside the building, reading fliers handed out by FDIC staff. The agency set up a toll-free number for bank customers to call.

IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.

IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.

A spokesman for the lender referred media queries to the FDIC.

The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.

In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.

In a statement Friday, Schumer said IndyMac's failure was due to long-standing practices by the bank, not recent events.

"If OTS had done its job as regulator and not let IndyMac's poor and loose lending practices continue, we wouldn't be where we are today," Schumer said. "Instead of pointing false fingers of blame, OTS should start doing its job to prevent future IndyMacs."

The FDIC planned to reopen the bank on Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.

Deposits are insured up to $100,000 per depositor.

As of March 31, IndyMac had total deposits of $19.06 billion.

Some 10,000 depositors had funds in excess of the insured limit, for a total of $1 billion in potentially uninsured funds, the FDIC said.

Customers with uninsured deposits could begin making appointments to file a claim with the FDIC on Monday. The agency said it would pay unsecured depositors an advance dividend equal to half of the uninsured amount.

During a conference call with reporters, FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said the agency would cover all insured deposits and then try to recover its costs by selling IndyMac's assets.

"We anticipate trying to market the institution as a whole bank," Bair said. "How much money we derive from that will depend on who gets paid what."

Holders of unsecured IndyMac debt may not fully recover their investment, Bair said.

"Generally if a creditor is secured, they are at the top of the claims priority," she said. "If they are unsecured, they're pretty low on the claims priority and probably will take some type of haircut with this, but we have not had a chance to do a thorough analysis to know ... how extensive those losses will be."

IndyMac spent the last two weeks trying to reassure customers that it was not near default.

On Monday, IndyMac announced it had stopped accepting new loan submissions and planned to slash 3,800 jobs, or more than half of its work force -- the largest employee cuts in company history.

In the letter to shareholders, IndyMac Chairman and Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said the drastic measures were made in conjunction with banking regulators to improve the company's financial footing and "meet our mutual goal of keeping Indymac safe and sound through this crisis period."

The plan was supposed to generate roughly $5 billion to $10 billion per year of new loans backed by government-sponsored mortgage companies, Perry said at the time.

But the run on its deposits ultimately short-circuited the strategy, prompting regulators to take action Friday.

Associated Press writer Raquel Maria Dillon in Pasadena contributed to this report

det er klart at man sagtens kan risikere et kollaps i væksten i de fattige lande

det skete jo i 1998, hvor de mindre økonomier i asien blev ramt af et voldsomt kollaps og en nedgang i industriproduktionen på 50% eller deromkring

og dengang var kina ikke så stor som i dag og heller ikke indien, men de undgik nedgangen, dog med lavere vækstrater i 1998-99

og fordi de andre lande i asien betød så meget for efterspørgslen efter råvarer og energi kollapsede olieprisen til 10 og råvarepriserne så det rev rusland, brazilien, mellemøsten og mange andre mindre råstofproducerende lande med ned i en afgrund og vi fik en stærk recession i det meste af den fattige verden

så derfor er det vigtigt at man kan følge udviklingen i de fattige lande og diverse indikatorer, for det er faktisk meget afgørende for udviklingen i aktierne om boomet i de fattige lande fortsætter eller man kan risikere at finanskrisen, der jo spøger i alle lande måske alligevel vælter boomet i de fattige lande

inflationen er jo steget overalt med stigende renter til følge, kreditstramning og udgifter til benzin/energi og fødevarer, der er steget så meget at mange mennesker i de fattige lande må skære ned på køb af andre goder så risikoen for at læsset vælter er stor, men det er bare ikke sket endnu, og det er det første udgangspunkt, at man skal tage udgangspunkt i kendsgerningerne, der viser at boomer fortsætter uændret

det er også derfor jeg ikke synes debatten herinde fungerer særlig godt når man hele tiden skal tage stilling til om kinas kvalitet på deres produkter og andre totalt ligegyldige emner, der helt

afsporer den sobre og seriøse debat som primært humle og jeg fører

i 1998 satte usa renten ned og dot.com boomet var ikke helt slut endnu, så usa trak verden op igen efter nedturen i 1998

og det er et eksempel på at både usa, europa og japan selvfølgelig stadig er en vigtig eksportdestination for de fattige lande, men ikke så vigtig som man tror og især gælder der jo det at de fattige lande tager markedsandele så selvom usa nu har været i recession i mere end 1½ år så er importen fra bl.a. kina og andre fattige lande jo fortsat med at stige bare med lavere vækstrater

så strukturen i verdenshandelen ændres kun meget langsont og den største ændring er den stigende samhandel mellem de fattige lande indbyrdes

hvor det er vigtigt at huske at boomet i mange fattige lande skyldes de stigende råvarepriser i de lande der producerer råvarerne og at det globale boom har meget at gøre med de to ting, 1. investeringer i råvaresektorerne - ikke mindst olie og kul/gas 2. boom i investering og forbrug i de lande, der producerer råvarerne

så ethvert tilløb til en svækkelse af væksten i de fattige lande, der kan få råvarepriserne til at falde er et klart signal til at vi kan få 1998 om igen uden at usa kan trække verden op så meget som de kunne i 1998-99

og derfor skal man kunne følge de indikatorer uden al den ligegyldige støj som diverse tåbelige og irrelevante indlæg har bragt på det sidste her på ihup

det, der har trukket den voldsomme vækst i hjemmemarkedet i kina er først og fremmest et boom i investeringerne på 25-30% om året og investeringerne udgør næsten halvdelen af økonomien i kina

så forbrugerne er slet ikke dem, der kommer i første række, når udenlandske virksomheder investerer i kina, det er salget i investeringsgode sektoren og infrastruktur, der kommer først

men da tingene hænger sammen og eksporten er steget med ca 20-30% om året i mange år og forbruget i reale priser er steget med 13-15% om året og boligbyggeriet og bilsalget med ca 25% om året i mange år

er det også investeringerne og de andre nævnte parametre, der trækker beskæftigelsen op og giver flere vellønnede jobs, som

så igen øger købekraften

og den er steget eksplosivt i de senere år

så kinas forbrugere sandsynligvis vil overtage funktionen som vækstmotor på hjemmemarkedet, når investeringerne flader ud med lavere vækstrater, men

foreløbigt er investeringerne ikke fladet ud, men fortsætter en ekstrem stærk vækst, der har varet nu i en supercyklus siden 2000 og sådan set også har været stærk, men mindre voldsom i 1990-2000

så alle indvendingerne fra hanne og gumse1 er helt hen i vejret og viser en total mangel på forståelse for de mekanismer, der styrer udviklingen i et land, der går fra fattigdom til rigsom på få årtier

og det nytter ikke en skid at tage ud og se på tingene med egne øjne, for der er intet at se, makroøkonomisk udvikling foregå nu engang ikke så man kan se den, for man ser bare det samme allevegne, at folk farer forvirret rundt i gaderne og ikke har penge nok til at købe deres daglige fornødenheder og folk, der beklager sig ligesom hanne og gumse1

nej de overordnede udviklingstendenser skal forstås ved at forstå de overordnede abstrakte parametre, som man netop skal sidde i ro og mag foran en computer og tænke igennem så man ikke bliver forvirret af almindelige menneskers forvirrede snak, som man møder allevegne når man rejser ud i en forvirret verden og åbenbart heller ikke kan blive fri for her på ihup

jeg vil da også gerne ud at opleve verden, men så er det ikke for at forstå økonomien, men for at møde spændende mennesker og dem findes der da heldigvis mange af rundt omkring og jeg har da også mødt en del på nettet bl.a. spekulant som jeg kommunikerer en del med i dag, man kan bare tage humle og cyber eller gedden og cloner som gode eksempler og der er mange af dem, der skrev tidligere som ikke skriver så meget mere fordi aktierne ikke går så godt for dem, men som jeg stadig kommunikerer med pr telefon og/eller e-mail, bare som eksempler hya, maestro, santaC, fisherman, zailor og andre. så vi er stadig et stærkt team, der selvfølgelig venter på bedre tider på aktiemarkedet, så bliver aktiviteten også meget højere

og så er der alle de negative idioter, hvor der åbenbart er et par stykker der er hoppet til ihop, og her må jeg gerne kalde folk for dumme svin, men det venter jeg med til der kommer endnu mere lort ud

og mht til spekulant så synes jeg det var meget upassende at agenten skrev her på ihup for at gå til angreb på mig under bæltestedet og bl.a. sige at vi laver ballade og personfnidder på spekulant, det var helt ved siden af det han skrev

det er jo netop det jeg ikke gør, jeg omtaler aldrig spekulant undtagen i de få tilfælde som nu, hvor det er klart at det er tidligere kontroverser på spekulant der får folk til at gentage angrebene på mig og humle personligt

men nu hvor hanne og gumsen sammen med agentens tidligere indlæg tydeligvis

bringer personfnidder til ihup

vil jeg bede jer om at pisse af

i er ikke velkomne

kapitalen fosser ikke ud af kina

den fosser ind

de har overskud på betalingsbalancen på 20-30 mia dollar om måneden

så kapital er det de mangler allermindst

boomer betyder at den økonomiske vækst er høj

uanset fra hvilket niveau væksten kommer

og høj betyder som regel +10-20% om året for industriproduktionen

og selvom et land er meget fattigt så

vil en meget høj vækst i mere end 10 år gøre mange flere indbyggere meget mindre fattige

kina har boomet i masser af år, mere end 20 år og der er ikke så mange tilbage, der er så fattige som de fleste danskere tror

hvorimod indien og afrika stadig er så fattige at de fleste indbyggere er meget fattige, men derfor kan det godt gå fremad alligevel

italienerne og tykerne var også meget fattige i 1946

men det forhindrede dem ikke i at blive rige allerede i 1960 fordi det 'boomede' i 50'erne og 60'erne og endnu rigere i 1973, hvorefter de er blevet fattigere igen fordi staten plukker dem med skatter, der smides ud ad vinduet til ingenting

koreanerne er reelt rigere end vi er i danmark og så sent som i 1985 var de ludfattige, så hurtigt går udviklingen i lande, der boomer

kineserne vil også være meget rige engang i 2015, langt over halvdelen af befolkningen vil have en levestandard, der er højere end den vi har i danmark

hvis man ikke kan forstå det er det fordi man er udannet i det danske uddannelsessamfund og medier, der bare koster skatter og beskæftiger lærere, der ikke kan gøre andet end at spilde deres egen og elevernes tid, koster skattekroner og som reducerer arbejdskraftsudbudet til fornuftigt arbejde

og iøvrigt flytter virksomheder i stigende grad produktion til kina alligevel

ikke for at udnytte de billige produktionsomkostninger til eksport, så der er ikke tale om at flytte produktionen mere, men om at være med i et marked, der eksploderer

og for at få del i historiens største boom i et hjemmemarked på 1.3 mia mennesker, der har et potentiale dobbelt så stort som usa, europa og japan tilsammen og som vokser med ca 17% om året på industriproduktion og investeringer på 25% om året og forbrug på 13-15% omåret

de fleste investeringer i kina fra virksomheder i den rige verden har efterhånden ikke ret meget med outsourcing at gøre, men tjener alene det formå at deltage i den ekstremt hurtigt vækst i verdens efterhånden største marked

det har jeg jo skrevet om 117 tusinde gange

at det ikke bare er kina der boomer
men alle de fattige lande

incl østeuropa, vietnam, afrika og mange andre

de flytter ikke noget som helst
men ekspanderer bare over en bred kam

og det er DET jeg har sagt

du VIL misforstå

og forstår intet

kina er jo snart ved at blive et rigt land

så produktionsomkostningerne i kina er efterhånden relativt høje sammenlignet med mange andre fattige lande

så de kan outsource til de lande, der er fattigere d.v.s. har lavere lønninger og kina øger så deres import fra de lande eller producere der og eksporterer fra de lande i deres navn

medens deres vækst fortsætter

du mangler totalt overblik og kommer med den ene forvirrende udtalelse efter den anden uden sammenhæng

Small Banks' Reckoning Day Is Coming
Billions in Troubled Construction Loans
Promise to Pose Test for Regional Lenders
By MICHAEL CORKERY, JENNIFER S. FORSYTH and LINGLING WEI
July 2, 2008; Page C1

Wall Street is bracing for regional and small banks to fess up to large losses from their mounting volume of soured construction loans made primarily to home builders.

According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter were delinquent. When banks announce second-quarter results in coming weeks, they are expected to report sharp increases in loans that builders can't repay. Banks are also facing intensifying pressure from federal and state regulators to deal with the problem loans on their books.

WHICH BANKS WILL FEEL THE PAIN?


See a sortable list of small and regional banks with sizable exposure to construction and land loans and with notable delinquency rates.That will put additional pressure on an already stressed financial system. Banks have begun to dump bad construction and land loans at discounts, curtail new lending and halt construction projects that are under way to preserve capital. Some analysts even see a wave of bank failures as a possibility.

"Across the industry, the second quarter is going to be a tough quarter," says Keith Maio, chief executive of the National Bank of Arizona, a unit of Zions Bancorp, which lent heavily to home builders and developers. "It's going to continue to be tough until the real-estate market hits a bottom."


Scores of banks were already suffering headaches by the end of the first quarter, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of FDIC-filed reports by 6,919 banks that make construction loans. The smallest banks, those with total assets of less than $5 billion, faced the biggest problems. The WSJ analysis didn't include savings-and-loan institutions, or so-called thrift banks.

Nearly one in three of the banks analyzed -- or 2,182 -- had construction-loan portfolios that exceeded 100% of their total risk-based capital, a red flag to regulators, although it doesn't mean the bank is in danger of failing. Risk-based capital is a cushion that banks can dig into to cover losses.

Even more alarming, 73 of those banks had construction-loan delinquency rates of more than 25%. Executives at all of the banks that responded to questions acknowledged the problems but expressed confidence they had the capital to weather the storm.

At Bremerton, Wash.-based Westsound Bank, new Chief Executive Terry Peterson agreed that his bank became "much, much too concentrated" in construction loans. About 43% of Westsound Bank's construction and land loans in the first quarter were delinquent.

Mr. Peterson was appointed CEO recently to clean up the troubled bank, after regulators issued a "cease and desist" order in March requiring the bank to change lending practices. "We are pretty much using all of our human capital to address our loan problems," he says.

Larger regional banks also face mounting construction-loan problems, but are in decent shape. Thirty-eight of them had more than 100% of their total risk-based capital in construction loans at the end of the first quarter, but only nine of those faced delinquency rates of more than 10%.

Over the next few quarters, banks are expected to begin recording much larger losses. In 2007 and the first quarter of this year, U.S. banks wrote down just 0.7% of their residential construction and land assets as bad debt, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm. Over the next five years that figure could rise to 10% and 26%, which would amount to about $65 billion to $165 billion, Zelman projects.

During the housing boom, many small and regional banks doubled down on construction loans because they were largely shut out of the home mortgage market dominated by large originators. But now the banks' difficulties are threatening to sharply shrink the home-building industry. Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim estimates that as many as 50% of the closely held builders won't survive because of the tightening lending environment and housing downturn.

Strategies for coping with the problem loans vary widely. Large banks, such as IndyMac Bancorp Inc. and KeyBank, have been trying to sell billions of dollars of construction and land loans. IndyMac said in a filing Monday that it is working with regulators to shore up its capital. (See related article.)


"The banks are running as fast as they can to get out of housing," says Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, a large, closely held builder in Las Vegas.

Mr. McCormick is involved in a fight with KeyBank, which recently initiated foreclosure proceedings on a $24 million construction loan financing a Las Vegas housing project. Mr. McCormick says the bank took that action even though his company was current on debt payments. In court documents, KeyBank says the builder fell behind.

Mr. McCormick says he found investors to buy out his loans at 70 cents on the dollar, but the bank refused. He also says that KeyBank has prevented him from closing home sales. "I personally think the fact that you would punish any innocent home buyer...is shameful," Mr. McCormick wrote in an email to KeyBank executives. A spokeswoman for KeyCorp, KeyBank's parent, declined to comment.

Many smaller banks have been more willing to work with struggling builders rather than foreclose on their projects. But these banks are coming under pressure from regulators to more aggressively write down their loans, amid declining real-estate values. This process could force many more loans into default.

Some community banks are bristling under the regulatory pressure. "The federal government is being too reactionary," says Damian Kassab, chief executive of Michigan-based Warren Bank, which reported that 47% of its construction loans are delinquent. "They want to see it done as quickly as possible. I say 'can't we just relax, take a deep breath and work with the borrowers.'"

Analysts question whether some small banks are putting off foreclosures because they lack adequate capital to absorb the large losses.

Banks seeking a quick fix by selling off their troubled loans may find fewer buyers. Laurence Pelosi, an executive director of Morgan Stanley Real Estate, a major land investor, told the Pacific Coast Builders Conference last week that the appetite for distressed residential real estate may be waning among some investors. "The complexity of the business and the increasing opportunities in the commercial sector may lead to a shift away from residential," Mr. Pelosi says. "That will have a further impact on values."

roskilde bank er vidst nærmest gået konkurs

interessant at den kunne stige så meget og så falde så meget

det er farligt at gamble med lånte midler

Regional - TECHNICALS
A temporary respite
Asian markets are set for a technical rebound.
Laurence Balanco (852) 26008576 laurence.balanco@clsa.com
As the regional benchmark (MXASJ – 459) is in a short-term oversold
position, marginally below the August 2007 low, a technical rally in the
coming weeks is likely. Targets for a recovery rally, based on a partial
retracement, extend from 501-530. The 501-516 area is particularly
attractive. If the regional benchmark rallies sharply on growing volumes and
improving breadth (only 9% of stocks in the regional benchmark sit above
their 40-week EMA) a more sustainable rally may be underway.
Gains limited to a partial retracement of losses. We view any rally that
materialises from current levels as a technical rebound that will be followed
by the resumption of downtrends in the region. Here we try and identify
resistane levels for the regions major markets:
�� China (MSCI China – 59) - The advance from the 58 low should be a
partial retracement of the decline from the May peak. Retracement
resistance is 65 (38%), 68 (50%) and 70 (62%). There is a resistance
zone at 66 formed by the mid-April low and the falling 50-day EMA.
�� Korea (Kospi – 1,537) - Resistance starts at 1,571, the January and
March lows. The index may be partially retracing the decline from the
1,901 – if so, retracement resistance is at 1,640 (38%), 1,687 (50%)
and 1,735 (62%).
�� Taiwan (TWSE – 7,075) - Initial resistance is found at 7,384, the
January low. Retracement resistance of the May-June decline is at 7,794
(38%), 8,065 (50%) and 8,346 (62%). The chart shows resistance at
7,890, the mid-March low.
�� Hong Kong (HSI – 21,821) - The uptrend from the 2004 wave 2 low
remains intact. The advance from long-term trend line support should be
a partial retracement of the decline from 26,377. Retracement resistance
is at 22,950 (38%), 23,565 (50%) and 24,196 (62%). The chart shows
gap resistance at the 23,741-24,392 area.
�� India (Nifty – 4,141) - The old support level at 4,448-4,500 now
becomes an important resistance zone. The advance from 3,848 should
be limited to a partial retracement of the fall from the May peak.
Retracement resistance starts at 4,347 (38%), 4,516 (50%) and 4,692
(62%).
�� Singapore (FSSTI – 2,896) - If we are correct and other Asian markets
rally from here it is possible that the FTSE STI will not make a new low.
The result of this would be a steady period of outperformance by
Singapore versus the regional benchmark since the March low.
Retracement resistance starts at 3,015 (38%) and ends at 3,104 (62%).

usa er også i dårligt humør i formarkedet

GE regnskabet var ikke godt nok

pippen er ved at afprøve sine nye kjoler som faldskærme, for hun hopper ud af vinduet hvert andet øjeblik og kommer så humpende op ad bagtrappen

lille pip nøjes med at hoppe ud af sengen, men det er også slemt nok, når der ikke er gulvtæpper på gulvet

gumsen bliver bare liggende i sengen, så gør det jo slet ikke ondt siger hun filosoferende

købschance alumina selvom aluminium og alumina priserne skyder mod nye højder er den faldet 50% pga mangel på gas i australien pga en eksplosion, der jo selvfølgelig er midlertidig

SYDNEY, July 10 (Reuters) - A gas shortage in west Australia will reduce Alumina Ltd's (AWC.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) third quarter after tax underlying earnings by about A$31 million ($29 million), the company said on Thursday.

Alumina's alumina and aluminium making operations are run under a joint venture with Alcoa of Australia, which is 60 percent owned by U.S. based Alcoa Inc (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and 40 percent by Alumina.

An explosion on June 3 at Apache Energy's (APA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Varanus Island facility in Western Australia state shut gas production, disrupting power supplies to Western Australia state, including to the alumina refineries run by the joint venture.

Alumina said the estimated impact on earnings from the explosion was based estimates by Apache that supplies will be restored by mid-August 2008. ($1=A$1.05)

hun har åbenbart ikke købt sit tøj her, måske vi skulle købe aktien?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HOTT&t=my

We are still actively dissecting the June same-store sales data out this morning, but on balance, it appears as if the sector averted the much ballyhooed crash and burn scenario.

pippen har lige købt 10 nye kjoler og tasker, hun syntes dem hun havde så for gamle ud, penge har hun ikke, men hun fik købt dem alligevel

Stimulus checks and favorable weather served as the primary underpinnings to many retailers reporting better than expected comparable store sales (comps). The standout for the month was once again Wal-Mart (WMT), which reported a 5.8% comp increase. Management positioned the company nicely ahead of the economic turbulence now being felt, and as a result is reaping the rewards. The world's largest retailer experienced strength in consumable goods, no big revelation given its price leadership position, while trends in the home and apparel categories continued to strengthen. Second quarter earnings guidance was raised ever so slightly, but in our view investors should anticipate a meaningful beat of the consensus in mid-August given the company's stellar inventory positioning.

Elsewhere, the deep discount retailers, such as Fred's (FRED) and Family Dollar (FDO) had noteworthy sales strength and continued to gain share due to the compelling price points on all goods.

Department stores, in line with our thinking, endured a challenging month as consumers looked to one stop shopping retailers to fill their everyday needs and occasional splurges. We would still avoid the sector, or short it entirely, as it's reasonable to assume that these retail behemoths will report lackluster sales for the back to school and holiday seasons. However, we would begin to pay attention to Kohl's (KSS), which announced a positive June comp amid a clearer marketing campaign and more appropriate merchandise prices. In our opinion, the company has been the best department store in terms of inventory management, and could gain share and surprise on the earnings line for the critical upcoming selling seasons.

Among teen apparel companies, the story was dour as parents simply spent less to outfit their children's wardrobes. Moreover, teenagers have become noticeably more price conscious in recent months, and are seeking lower cost wardrobe alternatives. Aeropostale (ARO) had a stellar month, announcing a 12.0% comp increase and raising second quarter earnings guidance due to healthy merchandise margins. In the space, one stock to watch going forward is Hot Topic (HOTT). The struggling retailer is increasingly reporting better month sales trends and reducing promotional activity in its stores. The company has the easiest comp comparisons amongst its peer base, and if momentum is maintained, financial results in the second half the year could take the market by surprise.

nu falder aktierne ignen i europa selvom de steg i usa og asien

de er da for sløve de europæere

og der er ikke recession i europa sådan som der er det i usa

Colombia Car Sales Down 24% In June To 16,125 Vehicles
14 hours ago

BOGOTA (Dow Jones)--Colombian motor vehicle sales at the wholesale level fell 24% in June to 16,125 units compared with the same month in 2007, according to data released by the industry group Comite Automotor Thursday.

Vehicle sales fell 11% to 110,005 units in the first half of the year from the same period in 2007, when 123,386 vehicles were sold.

In January, monthly sales fell 6.3% compared with the same month in 2007, the first decrease recorded since November 2003. Meanwhile in February, vehicle sales fell 3% on-year, while in March they retreated 14%.

"Like many sectors in the economy that are decelerating, sales of cars have also been hit by high interest rates," Daniel Escobar, head of research at local brokerage Gesvalores, said.

The most recent figures show that monetary tightening is already cooling down the Colombian economy. Colombia's gross domestic product expanded 4.1% in the first quarter of this year from a year earlier. During the first quarter of 2007 GDP grew 9.1% year over year.

The central bank has gradually raised its key rate to 9.75% from 6% in April 2006 in a bid to stop inflationary pressures.

In 2005, 2006 and 2007, car sales rose at a pace faster than 25% as a strong peso and lower interest rates encouraged people to buy vehicles. Colombian car sales at the wholesale level reached a record high of 258,443 units last year.

General Motors Corp. (GM) topped the sales rankings in June with 5,404 units, down from 7,601 in June 2007.

French car maker Renault (13190.FR) took the No. 2 spot, with 1,722 units in June, down from 3,375 units in the same month last year.

Korean Hyundai Motor Co. (005380.SE) sold 1,953 cars in June, down from 2,546 vehicles in the same month last year.

Comite Automotor's statistics cover more than 90% of the vehicles sold in Colombia, including buses, private vehicles, taxis and trucks.

-By Diana Delgado, Dow Jones Newswires; 571-6955450; diana.delgado@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=aLZ49klAXPqA0Hoj%2BsyPvg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

LG Display 2Q results: Hopes for early industry bottom-out fading 10
Kei Nihonyanagi (Tokyo): kei.nihonyanagi@gs.com, +81(3)6437-9883
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Yuji Fujimori (Tokyo): yuji.fujimori@gs.com, +81(3)6437-9880
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Bullish 3Q guidance likely to be viewed negatively by industry
LG Display’s 2Q (April-June) results conference call (at 9:00 pm JST on July 9) had a negative tone and
dashed slim expectations for an early bottoming-out for the industry, in our view. Management’s assumptions
look reasonable if panel demand is seasonal in 3Q, as it usually is, and we concur with the expectation for TV
demand to grow as panel prices decline. However, we see some risk in expecting panel demand to rebound
as much as it normally does in 3Q, considering panel inventories rose in 1H2008. We maintain our cautious
stance on the LCD industry as a whole.
Asia-Pacific Morning Summary July 10, 2008
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Management: Output at full capacity in 3Q, increasing capex
Contrary to market expectations, LG Display said it expects output to stay at full capacity in 3Q and plans to
increase 2008 capital spending to 3.8 tn won from its previous figure of 3.6 tn won. Management considers
end-2Q panel inventory levels (nearly three weeks’ worth overall; TV panels more than four weeks’ worth,
monitor panels two weeks’ worth) appropriate because the end-1Q levels (two weeks’ worth overall; TV
panels four weeks’ worth, monitor panels one week’s worth) were too low. It expects inventories to be down
at end-3Q compared to end-2Q.
Impact on component stocks: Price risk likely to remain an issue
In the absence of a reduction in industrywide capacity utilization, price risk is likely to remain an issue for
Japanese display component suppliers. LG Display expects its 3Q manufacturing costs to decline 4%-9%
qoq. More efficient glass usage, productivity improvements, and reductions in depreciation and other fixed
costs are likely to have a greater impact at LG Display than at other companies.
We maintain our estimates for Nippon Electric Glass (5214.T, Buy, Conviction Buy List), as its LCD glass
ASP probably declined only 5% yoy in 1Q, versus management’s and our expectation of a nearly 10%
decline. We do not see any short-term catalysts for the stock, but consider the stock attractive for longer-term
investors based on its P/E of 10X.
Impact on production equipment stocks: Investment deferral risk
The risk of investment being deferred will, we believe, remain a concern for production equipment stocks. LG
Display’s 6G investments have already been factored in. We maintain our Neutral coverage view.
Transportation

bulkmarkedet og kinas behov for jernmalm

SHANGHAI, July 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top steel
producer and consumer, imported 230 million tonnes of iron ore
in the first half, up 22.5 percent from a year earlier, and
analysts said the momentum is not likely to ease in the second
half. Most iron ore mines in northern Chinese provinces, which
account for the bulk of domestic output, have halted production
ahead of the August Beijing Olympics, forcing local steel mills
to source more imported ores, they said. "It is very likely that some steel makers in northern China
are building up stocks for their production during the Olympics
period," said Macquarie Bank analyst Henry Liu. China imported 37.79 million tonnes of iron ore in June,
down 2.9 percent from 38.91 million tonnes in May, the customs
administration said on Thursday. China imported a record 42.85
million tonnes in April. The massive inflows helped to push inventories in China's
major iron ore ports to an all-time high of 80 million tonnes
in May, spurring Beijing to call on major steel mills to clear
out their holdings in port warehouses. Port stockpiles had eased to about 60 million tonnes as of
early this week, industry sources said. Strong demand from China's steelmakers also led to a near
doubling of iron ore prices in term contracts recently
concluded with Australian miners Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and
BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). MINE CLOSURE China's northern province of Hebei, surrounding Beijing, is
home to one-fifth of the country's estimated 550 million tonnes
of steel production capacity, as well as hundreds of small and
medium-sized iron mines that supply nearly half of the nation's
domestically produced iron ore. Hebei province produced more than 300 million tonnes of
iron ore in 2007. Many steel mills are likely to start consuming imported ore
in large volumes in August, they said, as steelmakers usually
keep raw material reserves for 30 to 45 days of production. Industry sources added that bureaucratic delays may hamper
the reopening of closed mines in northern China after the
Olympic Games end on Aug. 24. "I am afraid that my mine will not be able to reopen soon
after the Olympics, as controls on transportation and
production are expected to continue for a while until orders
from the central government reach the localities," said the
owner of an iron mine in Hebei with annual production capacity
of 30,000 tonnes. China's steel product exports retreated unexpectedly in
June to 5.22 million tonnes from May's 10-month peak of 5.56
million tonnes, due to worries over trade conflicts and
possible export tax hikes. (For details please click
[ID:nSHA310657]) Below is a table of the Chinese iron and steel sector's
imports and exports in June and the first six months of 2008. June Jan-June mln tonnes pct chg* mln tonnes pct chg*
Exports:
Steel products 5.22 - 26.94 -20.2
Steel billet 0.02 - 0.13 -97.0
Coke 1.50 - 7.44 -7.5
Imports:
Steel products 1.26 - 8.28 -4.1
Steel billet 0.02 - 0.10 -28.5
Iron ore 37.79 - 230.04 22.5
* percentage change year-on-year
- not available
Source: China Customs Administration data
(Additional reporting by Niu Shuping; Editing by Edmund
Klamann)

Citigroup has raised its coal price forecasts across the board, citing the perfect storm of four months ago, along with persisting global supply deficits of coking, met and thermal coal.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 08 Jul 2008

RENO, NV -

Although coking and thermal coal prices soared by 200% to 300% this year in response to a perfect storm of short-term events including Queensland, Australia, floods, coal export bans in China, and the South African energy crisis, Citigroup forecast Monday that coal prices will remain robust.

While the perfect storm has abated, Citigroup mining analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks, both based in Australia, suggest that "limited potential for new supply means the coking coal market is expected to remain tight for many years."

Coking coal spot prices are around US$385.t, up $85 since January and above contract prices since 2000. Xstrata is believed to have recently settled at US$360/t for JFY 2008-2009, according to Citigroup.

Heap and Tonks assert that the supply-demand outlook points to persisting supply deficits of coking coal. "Further, it is difficult to identify additional supply sources which will meet the shortfall, even in response to higher prices," they said." The most likely response will be reduced steel production as mills run short of coal. Indian steel producers are the most vulnerable."

"Under these circumstances a severe pullback in prices, even from stratospheric levels, is most unlikely," they declared.

While the U.S. is the marginal supplier to seaborne met coal markets with exports rising sharply, Citigroup suggests that mining and infrastructure will limit export volumes. Nevertheless, the analysts added, "costs are high but margins are attractive."

In spite of a 200% increase in coking coal costs and an 80% interest in iron ore costs, Citigroup said steel producers have maintained their margins through price increases. For instance, steel production costs have risen by about $280/t to accommodate increased coal prices. Iron ore increases are adding a further $90/t, according to Citigroup.

Chinese hot-rolled coils (HRC) steel prices have increased US$460/t, while U.S, HRC prices have increased $600/t. "We expect further increase in steel prices," the analysts advised.

"To defray such cost inflation builders may substitute steel with concrete," they suggested, noting that concentrate prices have increased 120% over the past six years. "However it seems unlikely that the impact of steel prices on total construction costs is sufficient to curtail overall construction and economic activity."

The analysts also suggested that substitutions for coking coal in steelmaking have limited potential.

THERMAL COAL

Citigroup asserted that the perfect storm moved thermal coal prices sharply higher, and have accelerated higher in recent weeks. "The recent pullback is perhaps indicative of increased speculative activity in the market," they added.

Nevertheless, Heap and Tonks noted that China's power supplies remain acutely tight, which normally would cause domestic coal prices to increase "to stimulate further production and imports." However, coal prices have been capped while export volumes are limited by quotas, "which could return to a full ban."

"Reduced imports will only further squeeze Chinese coal and power markets," they asserted.

Meanwhile, Australian thermal coal exports remain impeded although "substantial mine, port and rail expansions have been committed," the analysts said. "But recent delays to expansions support our view of little growth in exports until 2010"

Citigroup noted that Eskom's power rationing has impacted some thermal coal production in South Africa., which may also hamper South African coal export growth. "Exports are down 20%yoy and 25% below capacity."

U.S. coal exports remain a risk to the market although a 40% growth in hard coking coal and 60% growth in thermal coal exports during the first quarter have not derailed the market, according to Citigroup.

Indonesia, the world's largest exporters of thermal coal, supplying 41% of the seaborne market, is critical to the thermal coal market, Citigroup asserted. While the Indonesian government is pushing for additional coal-fired power capacity, the analysts advised that domestic coal demand "will fall short of projections."

While Indonesian coal resources are very large, Citigroup noted that only 14% have a calorific value of more than 6100kcal. Therefore, export markets outside of China and India "will be constrained by the ability of power stations to accept an increased proportion of low cal coal in the blend," according to the analysts.

PEABODY, ARCH FORECASTS UPGRADED

Citigroup's San Francisco-based mining analysts John H. Hill and Paul Cheng said they expect met coal prices to increase through 2009. "However, this view seems discounted in aggressive consensus margins, particularly given the small size and checkered execution history of key miners."

Nevertheless, the analysts noted that "given burgeoning BRIC-country coal demand, signals that thermal may be tightening in a similar manner to met, and increasingly linked commodity markets, it is difficult to see global surplus emerging in the near/medium term. We believe both thermal and met are likely to track higher through 2009."

"We are hiking forecasts across major U.S. [coal] basins to levels in-line with survey data, with Met benchmarked to seaborne. The PRB [Power River Basin coal] is the only areas where forecasts are materially above market," the analysts said.

As a result, Hill and Cheng upgraded Peabody Energy and Arch Coal to a "Buy" recommendation.

WASHINGTON, July 10 (Reuters) - China is ramping up financing for power and transport projects in Africa, with the majority in four countries endowed with natural resources, according to a report by the World Bank on Thursday.

The report, which looks at the growing role of the Chinese government as a financier of infrastructure projects in Africa, estimates China's funding for roads, railways and power projects peaked at $7 billion in 2006 from just $1 billion a year between 2001-03.

The bulk of those commitments were to Nigeria, Angola, Sudan and Ethiopia and is welcome in a region where only one in four Africans have electricity, and travel along major export routes takes two to three times longer than in Asia.

But the World Bank said China was not the only emerging economic power financing infrastructure projects in Africa. India's Ex-Im Bank and Arab development funds are doing the same although China is by far the largest, it said.

In the power sector, China's investments have been in large hydropower schemes, and at the end of 2007 it was contributing $3.3 billion to 10 major hydropower projects amounting to some 6,000 megawatts of installed capacity.

When completed, these projects will raise total available hydropower generation capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa by around 30 percent, the Bank said.

Meanwhile, China's financing agreements to develop rail links, mainly in Nigeria, Gabon and Mauritania, totaled about $4 billion in 2007. This includes rehabilitation of more than 1,350 km of existing railway lines and construction of more than 1,600 km of new railroad. Africa's entire rail network is about 50,000 km.

Obiageli Ezekwesili, World Bank Vice President for Africa, said China's investments are helping fill $22 billion a year in financing needs for roads, railways and power across Africa. Continued...
She estimated that Africa's deficient infrastructure was costing the region as much as one percentage point a year of gross domestic product growth per capita.

"All of this signals an important and growing trend of south-south involvement in Africa that should create new opportunities," she told reporters, citing China's success at creating one of the the world's largest construction sectors.

TRADING FOR OIL

Yet, some say China's interest in building roads and power projects in Africa stems mostly from its desire to exploit the continent's vast oil, timber and mineral wealth to feed its booming economy.

Beijing has been criticized for turning a blind eye to human rights abuses and corruption in countries it invests in, such as Sudan and Zimbabwe.

China's imports of natural resources from Africa hit $22 billion in 2006, with oil alone accounting for 80 percent of the trade. As a result, China now depends on Africa for around 30 percent of its oil imports, 80 percent of its cobalt imports and 40 percent of its manganese imports.

Overall, Angola is by far China's largest trading partner followed by Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa and Sudan.

The World Bank noted that China's $10 billion investments in Africa's oil sector are, however, barely a tenth of the $168 billion invested by other international oil companies.

World Bank economist Vivien Foster said China's interest in Africa came at a time when investment in infrastructure was at a low point, with traditional Western donors focused on combating diseases, such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. Continued...

Foster, the bank's lead economist in the Sustainable Development Department of the Africa region, said 10 percent of the total $16 billion committed by China to infrastructure projects in Africa has so far been completed and delivered. A further 25 percent is still under construction and remaining 65 percent were for projects that were already signed.

Foster said more than half of the projects -- about 35 in all -- relate to small financial contributions of less than $50 million while a handful of others are for more than $1 billion.

"This highlights a novel feature of the Chinese financing, which is the ability to raise very large sums of money for specific infrastructure projects," Foster added. (Reporting by Lesley Wroughton; editing by Gary Crosse)

MOSCOW, July 9 (Reuters) - Russia will overtake Germany to become Europe's largest auto market later this year, three years earlier than forecast, PricewaterhouseCoopers said on Wednesday in a report based on first-half sales and projections.

"Russia is coming from a long way behind and is moving very quickly, as it has for several years, and it continues to accelerate," the report's author, Stanley Root, told Reuters.

"I'm not saying the dollar value is greater than the German market, but it will be the undisputed leader in unit terms by the end of the year," he said.

Last year, PwC forecast Russia would become Europe's biggest car market in 2011, while warning that a potential bad loan crisis in the banking sector and lack of investment in roads and parking space could still hamper Russian car market growth.

"If the current market trend continues through the second half of the year, car sales in Russia will exceed sales in Germany and may reach 3.6-3.8 million," PwC said in the report.

In the first half of 2008, car sales in Russia totalled 1.645 million units, a rise of 41 percent from the same period of 2007, while sales in Germany were 1.63 million cars.

In money terms, sales in Russia soared 64 percent to $33.8 billion from $20.6 billion a year ago. PwC said the average price kept rising partly due to a growing share of relatively expensive new imported cars.

With oil and gas export revenues feeding Russia's economy and boosting disposable incomes, consumer demand has shifted towards more expensive foreign brands from the Ladas produced by the country's largest car maker, AvtoVAZ (AVAZ.MM: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

The car market continues to grow in tandem with the country's strong economic performance, a contrast to the bleak outlook in many western countries, said the author. Continued...

"We're not seeing the kind of tightening of consumer credit that's occurring elsewhere," said Moscow-based Root.

"We don't see signs of any imminent shockwaves reaching Russian shores.

The report showed that new imported car sales rose 54 percent to 785,000 units in the first six months, while sales of foreign brands produced in Russia were up 41 percent at 290,000.

Sales of Russian vehicles such as the Lada rose only 27 percent, to 380,000. Sales of used imported cars also rose by 27 percent to 190,000 units.

Root said that while the German figures do not include imports of second-hand cars, it was not a significant factor distorting the overall picture, as Germany is such a large manufacturer and exporter. (Writing by Maria Kiselyova and Conor Sweeney; Editing by Quentin Bryar and David Cowell)

Forget Your Fears: 'Everything Is Cheap,' James Altucher Says
Posted Jul 10, 2008 12:48pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Biotech
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, FRE, LEH, QQQQ, SPY, FNM
The market lurched forward Thursday as the Dow Chemical-Rohm Haas deal overshadowed, for the moment, ongoing concerns about the soundness of the financial system.
Even as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testify about the need for new regulation while Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbling again, James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, says "fear of the unknown" is obscuring opportunity for investors.

On an enterprise value/cash flow basis, almost "everything is cheap," Altucher says, recommending investors buy index ETFs to get exposure to a market the author, columnist and investor believes is "dirt cheap."

pippen synes markedet boomer idag så hun er i godt humør

den kinesiske cementmaskinefabrik påstår at de er verdens største indenfor den branche

men lille pip er lidt bekymret for at de mange nedslidte biler i kina vil kunne få væksten til at falde i usa

men hun er nu også særlig intelligent på en måde som kun kvinder kan være det

de er det vi andre vil kalde bagkloge

pippen mener ellers at ca 60% af bilerne i kina er mindre end 4 år gamle

men med den forurening de har ruster de nok også hurtigere

gumsen mener slet ikke man kan ruste, hvis bare gumsen er stor nok

og gammel kærlighed ruster aldrig

Mattson Technology lowers 2Q outlook; shares fall
Tuesday July 8, 5:44 pm ET
Mattson Technology lowers 2nd-quarter outlook on chip market weakness; shares fall


FREMONT, Calif. (AP) -- Semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker Mattson Technology Inc. lowered its second-quarter guidance Tuesday, saying ongoing weakness in the semiconductor market led to lower shipments to some major memory customers.
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Mattson projected an adjusted loss of 24 cents to 26 cents per share in the quarter, compared with a previous prediction for a loss of 10 cents to 17 cents per share.

The company said that including items it expects a loss of 13 cents to 15 cents per share.

Mattson also lowered its expectations for second-quarter revenue estimate to $35 million excluding royalty income. That compares with a prior expectation of $40 million to $42 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect a loss of 11 cents per share on $42.5 million in revenue. Analyst estimates generally exclude special items.

The company said none of its revenue shortfall was due to competitive losses.

Mattson also said it expects to report gross margins of 34 percent, compared with previous guidance for 39 percent to 41 percent.

Mattson shares rose 8 cents to close at $4.92, but in after-hours electronic trading they lost 47 cents, or 9.6 percent, to $4.45. The stock has ranged from $4.54 to $11.76 over the past year

fannie mae og freddy mac er snart kun skyggen af sig selv

hvordan mon det ender

de er nok rustet op for 10 år siden

jeg tør ikke købe i dem

så hellere en kinesisk taxi der er 15 år gammel

hotellerne har det stadig fint udenfor usa

"While our hotels outside the United States continue to benefit from solid global demand, business conditions have deteriorated in the United States," Chief Executive J.W. Marriott said in a statement.

humle - en cement fabrik producent i kina, hvad mener du om den, er den bedre end FLS?, men den er da faldet tilstrækkeligt til at den må være et bedre køb, men det er nok kvaliteten det er galt med

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=1893.HK

bilsalget i indien stiger stadig og især stiger lastbilerne en del og også motorcyklerne, så selvom stigningstakten er faldene, er det stadigvæk en stigning og bilparken stiger med ca 2 mio uanset hvordan bilsalget udvikler sig

NEW DELHI, July 10 - Car sales in India rose an annual 6.1 percent in June, the slowest monthly expansion so far this fiscal year as rising costs forced car makers to cut down on discounts and other incentives.

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Firms sold 99,738 passenger cars in June, with sales growth sharply slower than the 14.3 percent seen in May and 17.2 percent in April, data released on Thursday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed.

It was also well below the 16.4 percent expansion seen in June 2007. Car sales in the April-June period have risen 12.4 percent, flat with the 12.7 percent growth in the year-ago period.

Car makers have offered discounts to boost demand in a competitive market, but rising costs of raw materials like steel have squeezed margins.

"People were trying to boost sales by discounts," Sugato Sen, senior director at SIAM, said. "Margins are under pressure , so discounts and other incentives are drying up."

Demand has also been dented by double-digit inflation in the country, rising interest rates and higher fuel prices, Sen said.

Inflation is at a 13-year high, and the central bank has raised its key lending rate to the highest in more than six years in response, bumping up rates on automobile loans.

State-set fuel prices were hiked by about 10 percent in June after global crude oil prices surged to record highs.

Sen forecast sales would remain flat in the next few months and said some firms could cut down on production.

Sales of commercial vehicles rose 13.5 percent to 40,324 units in June, chiefly on large bus orders from state-run transport firms, Sen said.

Motorcycle sales rose 8.3 percent to 473,899 units in the month. Bike sales have revived this year, following a 11.9 percent fall in the year to March 2008, and analysts expect them to be more attractive to customers as they have lower operating costs than other vehicles.

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sol i asien

Emergence of Asian solar cell makers backed with government support:
Japanese manufacturers were the first to enter the solar cell production field in Asia,
but new entrants have pushed their share of the market down to about 22% as of
2007. In particular, Asian companies have sprung up in the field with the support of
their governments. A common trend among those Asian companies is their rapid
emergence in a relatively short period of time, made possible by taking advantage of
solar cell production equipment and expertise from equipment makers in European
and other countries.
• Taiwanese LCD and semiconductor makers also entering the solar cell market:
In Taiwan, the government has been fostering its solar cell industry into a
manufacturing center, and by the end of 2008 we expect it to achieve world-class
production capacity at levels rivaling those of China and Japan. Eyeing expansion in
the market, some leading Taiwanese LCD and semiconductor makers have entered
the solar cell field to latch onto growth potential. Overseas companies often supply
the production equipment, while shortages of silicon materials have gradually formed
a bottleneck. Those Taiwanese companies have thus started to strengthen
development with the eventual aim of domestically procuring thin-film solar cells.
• Leading companies in mainland China also growing rapidly: The solar cell
industry has been expanding sharply in China, and it had the largest production
capacity in the world as of end-2007. Under the 11th Five-Year Plan, plans call for
increasing the amount of power generated by solar cell systems in China to
300,000KW by 2010, but the industry seems more geared to exporting solar cells at
this time. Suntech Power Holdings [STP US] (No rating; $37.46, 30 June close) is a
leading mainland Chinese company listed in the US that ranks third in the world,
shipping about 10% of all solar cells shipped in 2007. In summer 2006, Suntech
Power acquired MSK, a major solar cell module maker in Japan, which started
assembly and production of solar cells in Japan in 2008.
• Singapore aims to be a clean energy hub: Singapore aims to become a global
hub for clean energy, and aims to nurture its clean energy industry into a S$1.7bn
market by 2015. The solar cell industry there has begun to emerge, with leading
European companies announcing their intentions to operate in Singapore.
• We see growing business opportunities in Asia for Japanese, US, and
European solar cell production equipment makers: Solar cell production
equipment makers have begun to expand their business capabilities in Asia, where
the industry shows signs of taking off with government and regional support. We
think business opportunities are growing in particular for Ulvac [6728] (Strong buy;
¥3,720), which offers turnkey solutions and has been winning orders for thin-film
solar cell production equipment from leading companies in Taiwan and mainland
China. Meanwhile, Japanese module equipment maker NPC [6255] (No rating;
¥6,120) plans to establish a foothold in Singapore in line with its strategy of pushing
into other markets in the Middle East, India, and China.
Nomura Securities Co Ltd, Tokyo
Asia & Emerging Markets Research
Date
2 July 2008
Japanese full report & English summary: 1 Jul
Report no. A08-168
Investment Strategy
Y. Iwata
+81-3-5255-1649
y-iwata@frc.nomura.co.jp
Financial & Economic Research Center
Nomura Securities, Tokyo
N omura 9 2 July 2008
May

pippen er hoppet ud af vinduet

SINGAPORE -- A worsening coal shortage means that China faces the prospect this summer of the most extensive power cuts it has seen in four years.

Despite encouragement to keep the current flowing, with new approval to raise electricity prices, power generators are struggling to find enough fuel, in part due to China's clampdown on illegal coal mines. This, coupled with robust demand for electricity, explains why the National Development and Reform Commission recently said the power shortfall this summer could be as high as 10 gigawatts, with 60% of the disparity in Guangdong province, a manufacturing hub.

But analysts say the shortfall may well be larger than the government economic-planning agency's forecast. Cuts are already causing major problems, and the situation may well get worse, not least due to inadequate connections, which hinder regions with surpluses from filling gaps elsewhere. Electricity rationing has been imposed in several provinces, and many power plants are struggling with shrinking coal stocks.

On July 6, inventories at 541 coal-fired power plants connected to the state grid averaged 34.64 million metric tons -- the equivalent of 11 to 12 days of stock, below the normal level of 15 days -- according to domestic media reports. Stocks at 64 plants were below three days' supply, while an additional 181 had stocks of less than seven days.

On Tuesday, shares in Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., China's largest alumina producer by output, slumped in Hong Kong after the company said two of its smelters in Shanxi province were forced to cut production because of a power shortage.

The Chinese government has been stepping up efforts to close down illegal mines since 2005. Output from small coal mines, which account for nearly one-third of China's total production, is now stagnant at best, and large state-owned mines haven't bridged the gap, said Wang Shuai, an analyst with Shanghai-based Orient Securities. At the same time, demand has been growing robustly in the past year, with a slew of new coal-fired electricity capacity coming online. Yang Tao, an analyst with KGI Securities, estimates that the coal shortage is likely to reach 10 million to 20 million tons this year. Though that volume is a fraction of China's total coal output -- around 2.5 billion tons in 2007 -- it is still significant, because more than 80% of China's electricity is produced by coal-fired power plants.

Inflation Slows in Singapore's Residential Market
Softening Demand
Forces Developers
Toward Lower Prices
By PATRICIA KOWSMANN
July 10, 2008; Page B5

SINGAPORE -- The sharp inflation slowdown in Singapore's private residential market is the latest sign that times are getting tougher for local developers.

Prices increased 0.4% in the second quarter from the first, the smallest rise since mid-2004, according to recent government statistics. The figures were based on the first 10 weeks of the quarter, and some analysts said final numbers could show a decline in prices, which are likely to fall further in coming periods.


With buyers' sentiment expected to be weak for the rest of the year due to a poor global economic outlook, developers who have delayed new projects have no option other than to lower prices, analysts said. "Developers just have to come to terms with more realistic pricing. Moving inventories is more important than getting a good margin right now, so these companies need to lower their [price] expectations," said CLSA analyst Yew Kiang Wong.

Prices on sales of uncompleted projects are down 8% on average since the beginning of the year, according to Nomura.

"We are already seeing some developers lowering prices," Mr. Yew said. "At the end of last year, it was expected that City Developments would launch Shelford Suites, a new development, this year for an average sale price of 2,000 Singapore dollars [US$1,465] a square foot. They ended up launching it at about S$1,600." City Developments Ltd. General Manager Chia Ngiang Hong said the average price for Shelford Suites was "in line with our expectations."

Keppel Land Ltd.'s chief executive for the Singapore residential business, Augustine Tan, said the company isn't under pressure to lower prices. "The market is going through a consolidation phase, which happens in every upswing phase of a property cycle," Mr. Tan said. "Keppel Land is optimistic that the market will continue to grow thereafter."

CapitaLand Ltd. in May reiterated its target of offering 800 to 1,000 units this year. Chief Executive Liew Mun Leong recently said the company expects prices of mid- to low-tier homes will remain stable this year.

Private-home prices rose 31% last year, fueled by Singapore's ambition to become a business and entertainment hub in Asia. Singapore turned into a virtual construction site, and many projects were sold out within hours of being offered.

Signs of a slowdown started to show in the fourth quarter as the fallout from the U.S. credit crunch spread.

Mr. Yew said he expects a 10% to 20% price decline in the midtier and high-end residential segments this year. Property prices in the mass market, however, should rise 5% since the sector has lagged behind the rest of the market, he said.

About 85% of Singaporeans live in public housing built by the government's Housing and Development Board. Private developers compete to provide housing for the remaining 15% of Singapore nationals, along with a sizable foreign population.

Some analysts said the current slowdown is likely temporary and will turn bullish once investors sense that falling property prices are attractive.

"I just can't see property prices tanking -- not when you have interest rates so low and inflation so high, and you can go out to the market and rent out your place for this kind of rental yield," said Joseph Tan, senior strategist at Fortis Bank in Singapore. Even though the rental market has seen price pressure, rates have gone up rapidly in the past two years because of increasing demand from foreigners.

Things could change as the rising cost of living makes Singapore less attractive for expatriates. In addition, new apartments are expected to flood the rental market in the next two years.

Insurers of Mortgages Downgraded
A WSJ NEWS ROUNDUP
July 10, 2008

Moody's Investors Service downgraded the insurance financial-strength ratings of the mortgage-insurance operations of two companies.

It downgraded to A3 from Aa2 the ratings of PMI Group's U.S. mortgage-insurance subsidiaries, including PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. and PMI Insurance Co. It also downgraded to A3 from Aa3 the ratings of PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Ltd., and PMI Guaranty Co., a provider of credit enhancement products.

Moody's also downgraded the insurance financial-strength rating of American International Group Inc.'s mortgage-insurance operating companies, citing their weakened credit profile resulting from high mortgage defaults and uncertainty about ultimate losses.

The ratings company cut by one notch to Aa3 its ratings on AIG's United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co. and a subsidiary, noting their risks are mitigated in part by limited exposure to higher risk mortgage products and "robust capital adequacy."

The companies also benefit from a net worth maintenance agreement provided by AIG and a reinsurance agreement from one of AIG's operating entities, but the performance of their insured portfolio has deteriorated, Moody's noted.

Moody's also downgraded by two notches to A1 the ratings of the group's second-lien insurance company, United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co. of North Carolina, and its student-loan insurance company, reflecting uncertainty about the future prospects for the businesses after AIG completes a previously announced review of all its operations.

Moody's also warned losses within the second-lien and student-loan sectors could "meaningfully surpass standalone claims paying resources" and fundamentals in these segments are unlikely to improve in the near term.

så fik vi endnu en aften med store fald i usa, så det er ikke særligt morsomt at investere i aktier i øjeblikket

pippen er ved at få pip og lille pip sidder og pipper

og gumsen har fået ondt i røven